National’s nightmare in Northland – Winston’s Coming

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We can not underestimate what a titanic win and shock to the political establishment a Winston upset in Northland would herald.

The poll last night that had Winston ahead by 20 points is phenomenal. If If If Winston can pull this off, and it is just such a huge If he can, there are ramifications for every Party:

  • National will be in disarray and Steven Joyce will be in trouble.
  • Labour will be shown up for having no clue what was going on and those online Labour activists who were crowing that Labour voters would never vote for Winston look embarrassed.
  • Maori Party & United Future become more powerful while ACT lose power.
  • A resurgent NZ First risks snookering the Greens again which impacts on who they will select as leader.

Saturday’s result has impact across the political spectrum.

 

38 COMMENTS

  1. This appears to be a protest vote – The Nats have spun the story of free beer and riches for all………… But the small print reveals UHT milk for kids and riches for the top 10%. Sometimes middle NZ is a bit gullible but thick as pig shit they are not. The ‘dream’ is wearing thin, not a week goes buy without the Nats dirty tricks department oozing lies and dirty deeds. The dream is over whether key can spin Northland or not (looks like not) The MSM is beginning to pull at the threads which could just leave key naked and exposed – not a pretty site……… Go Winston

  2. Yep, NZ has woken up (from the liberals to the conservatives). The majority do NOT approve of what is going on within government.

    The MSM and others, are constantly undermining the public voice and telling them what they think. Election time is when the public get to speak.

    Winston for all his faults (and judging by the polls the voters are aware of this) is wily enough to navigate the political spectrum for hopefully a win. He is the best choice for Northland.

  3. Hi Martyn, are you “exaggerating” again?

    …online Labour activists who were crowing that Labour voters would never vote for Winston look embarrassed.

    No-one said that apart from you. Your lack of knowledge about how real political parties operate just keep shining through.

    What Labour people are saying is that there are going to be a pretty high proportion of Labour voters who won’t vote for Winston Peters or NZ First. This appears to be accurate so far. 10% of the electorate in a poll are saying that they are going to or have vote Labour.

    Last election Labour candidate Willow Jean Prime got 25% of the electorate votes in Northland. So probably a bit less than half of the Labour voters are still going to vote Labour. In all liklihood those voters wouldn’t vote NZ First

    If Labour had followed your naive and rather ignorant political advice, those voters probably won’t vote and would be likely to continue not to vote in the future. That was the argument about not depriving voters of choices.

    But I guess you have never met many actual real voters or worked in a political party as more than a disruptive dilettante. I suspect you understand these basic bits of political knowledge.

    • Goodness you are defensive aren’t you champ. Was I talking about you was I Lynn? Guilty complex much? Your ability to continue to show why you have all the personal charm of cancer is amusing but pretty dull.

      I never appreciated what a spiteful and damaged person you are Lynn, please go take some time off to chill out.

      With friends like the Standard, who needs enemies? Looks like Winston and Labour voters in Northland might prove you wrong Lynn, I’m not sure why your ego needs to take that out on me however.

      • In trying to guess how strong support for Peters is, it is pointless using the comments of what is after all a left wing blog, so I have taken a look at the comments following John Armstrong’s piece in the NZ Herald, where you would expect a strong support for the Nationals.
        I suggest that contributors here take a few minutes to read some of them. Out of 95 comments (and I’ve read them all) only 6 were supportive of National and the other comments were ferocious. Words like “lies, arrogant, deceitful ” etc are littered throughout virtually all of them. On the evidence of these comments Peters support is rock solid. It looks like a sea change is occurring.

    • Lynn – Who’s naive and ignorant? Sounds like another elitist, out of touch national supporter. You guys are running scared and don’t like those who tell truths like Martyn. But then you have a zombie puppet leader who has the ethics and intellect of a block of wood and a nose as long as a bean pole so go figure ! ! Jonkey – a corporation in disguise of a man.

      Anyone else getting sick and tired of the same ole defensive rhetoric and more fabricated lies from the camp of unethical morons taking our country and environment into the toilet ???? Still some asleep voters ! !
      BRING ON MORE HONEST JOURNALISTS – MORE RARE MEDIA WITH INTEGRITY AND TRUTHSEEKING WRITERS LIKE MARTYN BRADBURY.
      Keep up the good work Martyn. Look at all her negative votes.

    • LYNN PRENTICE;

      ‘No-one said that apart from you’

      Oh yes they did. Read or heard them myself.
      Attack dog for the ‘fake’ Left?

      People have woken up to the game of ‘pass the baton’

      And tell me, on who’s advice was it to go into an election with
      policy that raised taxes and extended the retirement age on the
      very people you are supposed to represent? A first in history?

      A New Left is needed and the Greece example can show you it can happen very quickly.

      With comments like that is it any wonder they are turning away in droves?

      And that comes from a man who has voted Labour most of his life
      along with his father and father’s father.

      Cheers.

  4. The Act situation is interesting. If Goldsmith stands seriously in Epsom he will get in and Act will be gone. Gone unless Act can get some sort of traction from disaffected Nat voters and have the semblance of getting credible numbers of votes.

    • The split between parties is critical for Epsom – the strategists don’t want a Nat as the electorate MP as that doesn’t get them an extra seat in the House (as total number of seats is based on party vote).
      So we will continue to see a compact between Act, Nat and the Epsom voters to cough up a “free” extra seat.
      Time for a change to MMP to require a minimum party vote (e.g. 0.5%) to allow an electorate MP to be elected.

  5. Are people finally getting the idea about strategic voting? – seems so in Northland. Lets hope it shifts country wide and more importantly into the labour camp, by the next election…if there isn’t a snap election sooner due to a certain person allegations ‘coming out’.

    • Generally with elections, especially by-elections it pays to wait until the actual results come through before you start deriving lessons from it.

      What counts in any election is the actual turnout rather than what people say to pollsters. Talk to pollsters is cheap. Making time to go and vote is lot more effort, and one that many people either fail to do or where they don’t vote the way that they told the pollsters.

      In the case of by-elections that is even more pronounced because the turnout tends to go to the most established and organised group who can get people to turnout. That is usually the the incumbent MP or previous incumbent MP’s party.

      In this case National has held the electorate for a long time so they are odds on favourites. The demographic profile of people who vote in by-elections is also a lot older and generally more conservative than those who vote in a general election.

      In this case the high levels of early voting at nearly double the rate of the last general election, may and probably do, indicate that the incumbent party is exerting pressure to get their vote out early.

      Hope may spring eternal like the politically naive author of this post, but having been around a few electorate elections over many decades, it doesn’t beat hard work and local knowledge inside the electorates. I’ll wait for the result before drawing conclusions.

      • Cough, cough – seeing as I am so politically naive , pray tell us oh mighty one how Winston won a 4000 majority?

  6. While not wanting to be a Negative Nelly , here’s one other possible scenario .

    Mark Osborne’s clearly tanking and it’s not looking good for national . So who flies in to save the day ! From a Japanese tour de farce ? Ta Da ! Super Yankee Doodle Jonky – Stien !
    What’s the bet the stats re Osborne don’t do a mysterious , last minute turn around after jonky swoops in and charms , pouts and promises ?
    Oh my ! Jonky ! ( Swoon-giggle go the media whores . )
    Peters is discredited , Prime is ridiculed and after a flurry of skin pressing by the sneering assassin, the figures start to change in Osborne’s favour !? And Osborne takes Northland in a last minute triumph ! Funny that ? Because only three Northland people voted for him and two of them were dead . Hmmmm ? If the Nats rigged the general election what’s a silly little by-election amongst cronies ?

    • Yeah we might just about be at the point where we need to appoint UN election scrutineers/observers just like they do in the Middle East and other banana republics.

    • I don’t think you’re being negative – just cautious. Key is not going to turn this around and following Osbourne’s defeat on Saturday, he will be seen to have backed a loser – not a good look a PM. I don’t agree with this ‘rigged election’ conspiracy bullshit. National were hugely popular and the election results reflected the polls. However, we are now witnessing a sea change in New Zealands political landscape. Third term blues are starting early for this despicable government.

      • Given what is known about how published polls affect elections, a poll this clearly in favour of Mr Peters would be rather unlikely to lead to any other result than a win for him.

        Countryboy points out that a poll-changing excuse would be needed to make any other result seem at all believable. Rather than causing people to start talking about rigged elections.

        I find no reason to assume National would not rig the election if they could. Given how long the technology has been available, the resources they can apply and the many lies they have told and continue to tell,I find no reason to expect them not to take their dirty politics that step further.

        They would need to precede a rigged election with a rigged poll,not difficult to arrange. The large number of early votes alleged ( I say alleged because the public can’t verify that a stated number of votes have actually been cast) may be a feature of the necessary obfuscation.

        Given the unprecedented poll surge in his favour, should Mr Peters somehow not win I believe it will mark the beginning of a move to open voting, as secret ballot will begin to be seen as a cure now worse than the disease it was devised for.

        • What a load of nonesense. You say, “They would need to precede a rigged election with a rigged poll, not difficult to arrange.” How so? Since most of the polls during last year’s election reflected the actual outcome, are you saying that they were mainly rigged? There are so many facts that can be brought to bear in understanding the reasons for National’s victory (compliant right wing media and a dumbed-down national discourse, National having more money to spend than all the other parties combined, voter apathy among the very poor, selfishness and the “I’m alright Jacks” etc, etc), without getting into conspiracy theories.

      • No the election in September did not reflect the polls and their win was by a much larger majority than expected. This was due to the fact that the opposition parties of Labour, Greens and say NZ First (but could have been InternetMana) were looking to take it in polls which traditionally favour National. So the vote for National was a lot higher than was expected (ie – less than the polls predicted).

        If National win this by-election there will be other conclusion than tampering.

        If you can’t believe it can happen in your country then think of the USA in 2000 and 2004 where they thought it couldn’t happen but did. Israel’s election is looking odd also comparing polls to result.

      • RAYCHCH;

        If you believe rigged elections never happen then I suggest
        you go to http://www.globalresearch.ca and punch in the term
        ‘electoral fraud’ in the sites search engine.

        Software does exist to manipulate the numbers once digitized.

        But there are many other more subtle ways a Gvt may interfere
        with the democratic process.

        You should find quite quickly Canada, UK and the Scottish
        referendum.

        Off course we all know it happens in America regularly.

        Cheers.

    • @ Countryboy – like your good self, I wouldn’t put it past Key either, to pull something sinister (possibly against Winston) tomorrow night, prior to the byelection.

      Interestingly the TV One Colmar Brunton poll also has the wily old Winston ahead of his twit arse rival, Osborne 🙂

      And another point. What’s all this about Osborne not fielding questions or being interviewed??? If and God forbid he did by some chance become MP for Northland, will he have to have Key or Lord Haw Haw’s (Joyce) hand up his rear end, manipulating what he says?

    • COUNTRYBOY you raise some valid concerns.

      Yes, the MSM did for a while get stuck into Key and his Natsy led government just a few weeks out from the last general election.

      And what happened in the end?

      The MSM then suddenly turned against Labour, Greens and especially Mana, ridiculing and rubbishing almost everything that was said and done. Nicky Hager was hardly mentioned in the last week leading up to that election, and we know the result that became evident on election night.

      Many in the MSM have never liked Winston, and they may just give him a bit of space at the moment, but this can suddenly turn the other way again, over the last one to two days, especially since their charm boy Key is doing his last minute tour of the North.

      Although there has been more criticism of Key and his government by some media, they generally still give them too much credit.

      The more conservative media chiefs may finally say, hey, the future of the government, “of the country” even, is at stake, send the message out that Osbourne and Nats must be voted in, “to keep stability”.

      I dread the thought of this, but do not cheer and celebrate too soon, we know how nasty the MSM can be.

  7. My Message to Winston.
    Dear Winston,

    Subject “Winnable Winston”

    Wonderful news as the Northland Poll favours NZ First now to win.

    The poll has Winston out in front as clearly winnable, as our saviour of NZ to moderate this out of control “Carpetbagger” corrupt Government’

    Caution please Winston. See video below

    Please Winston request only a manual paper vote count with no electronic tabulation to be used anywhere please as in this video overseas voting rigged process’s are happening as they use “source code” computer fraud programming that cannot be traced to falsify electronic counting process.

    http://theteapartytruther.com/programmer_testifies_about_rigging_elections_with_vote_counting_machine

    Remember to tell Northland about how Government is trying to kill off Gisborne/Napier regional rail and of course the Northland rail as well all for John Key’s cycle trails. Fuck his “Ho key min rail trail.”

    We pray for your win Winston, fly high.

    • You are so right, with the GCSB and keystone at the finger tips of the present government and the revelations that it was used to further the career of one of its members , it is wise not to rule out the present government of the possibility of rigging this by election.

  8. I don’t trust Peters one jot. But I trust that lying prick John Key even less. So I guess it’s the proverbial “lesser of two evils”.

    • I can only repeat what I said at the outset of this election, when people were saying that the 9000 majority was too big to over-turn: every by election is different and has its own dynamics.
      I thought, and hoped, a win for Peters was possible, but the margin certainly looks bigger than I could ever have hoped, but although it certainly changes the balance of power in parliament, it may not mean much as far as 2017 is concerned – it is too far away. By all means if there is a Peters victory, savour the moment but on Monday you will all need to start again.

  9. You know it CB. Lots of money riding on FJK. Hope I’m proved wrong, come Saturday, and Winston wins, otherwise yes, there are a lot of dead people voting!

  10. This is the catalyst that will mark the end of the Key – led govt.

    It is almost difficult to see a major victory in two years time. They will be wracked with growing and never ending dissent against this style of autocratic leadership.

    Even if they do secure a win…it will be a very watered down and anaemic shadow of what we have endured. And as for Key……increasingly caught up by scandal and lies of his own making…..

    Like many political leaders of his ilk…he will have started his tenure as the popular ‘man of the moment’ ….only to end that tenure in ignominy and infamy.

    I would say quite confidently this is the beginning of the backlash against these autocratic neo liberal’s who have had their day in the sun….

    And now have to begin to pay the piper for their largesse.

  11. Go Winston Go !
    We do not need another National “out of touch” person in Parliament.
    People are waking up to the horrors of what John Key and his govt. are
    really !! ! all about. They are in bed with the greedy corporations and he is Obama’s little lap dog. Look at this recent NZ housing issue train wreck – yep their doing a great job ====>>> N O T ! ! !

    Come on Nat supporters, defend your leader and run VERY scared and show us just how smart you are – like Lynn, vicious and nasty.
    Go Winston Go !

  12. Well, also TVNZ had a poll where Peters was getting 52 percent support and the Nat candidate just over 30 something percent. It will now require a massive shift to allow Osbourne to win for the Nats. Only a dirty politics kind of revelation about Peters may change the trend and likely outcome.

    Let us wait and see what Key has up his sleeve, maybe the GCSB is monitoring Peters and his NZ First Members now, to find some dirt to stick?!

    • @ MIKE IN AUCKLAND – isn’t that what Key uses Cameron Slater for? To dig for the dirt and smear it all over his filthy rag and sell it to msm to publish? Or has the GCSB superseded the WhaleOil now?

      Wouldn’t put it past Key to release some lying, scabby, sleaze on Winston today, or someone from his NZ First team. If it’s going to happen, it will be sometime this evening, in time to catch the mid to late news bulletins!

      Key is desperate and can be dangerously so when it takes him!

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