Latest Q+A poll highlights foolishness of Labour Strategy

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Ouch. Latest poll by Q+A highlights the foolishness of Labour’s decision to run a candidate in the by-election. Q+A have Winston tied with National and winning if the Labour candidate is pulled. This blog pointed out the reality of Winston running first yet Labour decided to try it on anyway. Northland is a conservative electorate, when the horror of Sabin’s ‘personal issues’ are made clear, that conservative electorate is going to be furious with National.

That fury was always going to swing behind any candidate OTHER than Labour. Labour’s decision to insult NZ First and risk allowing the Government to win is driven by a confused thinking inside the Wellington bubble.

Seeing as Labour joined NZ First and John Key to slit Hone’s throat in Te Tai Tokerau, the idea that Labour are too special to cut electorate deals is just bullshit. It’s blind arrogance and First Past The Post thinking in an MMP environment.

This arrogance is compounded by Labour’s current strategy to ignore MMP and aim to be a 40% Party again. The only way Labour can get to 40% is by either cannibalising NZ First and Green vote or wooing National voters.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

We will probably get a change in Government in 2017, but it won’t be a changed Government. The Left’s inability to understand and embrace strategic MMP voting is driven by our tribal hatred for each others schism as opposed to the actual enemy of the Right.

34 COMMENTS

  1. If you were a member of the party, I would consider you qualified to call this dribble an opinion. As an outside sniper, your opinion is just another selfie. Why don’t you join a party and stand?

    • If Martyn were a member of the Labour party it would simply show that he lacked the intelligence of have a worthwhile opinion on anything.

  2. Yep, why can’t Labour have the conversation with other parties, BEFORE they put their foot in it. Even the Labour president advised don’t run in the by election.

    The best they can do now, is try to tell Labours supporters to vote strategically for Winston.

    They also need to realise there is a lot of dirty politics going on, public voter opinion polls are filled with trolls and often don’t even work properly on non pro government options. Maybe that is why they did not realise their is strong dis satisfaction with National.

    Labour need to adapt to the new world of dirty politics. They seem to be given false or misleading opinions on policies from within their own party. They are too much like National on key issues of War, TPPA and Surveillance. They need to get a real policy on this, not be evasive and NationalLite.

    Look at NZ First they are honest about their anti war, TPPA and surveillance and are a central party that does not agree with National!

    That is why they have the come back.

    • The best they can do now, is try to tell Labours supporters to vote strategically for Winston.
      Andrew Little did exactly that on T.V this morning.

    • Why do you assume Labour hasn’t talked to other parties? You are aware, I gather, about Winston’s legendary refusal to cooperate with other parties or give any indication either in public or private that he will work with one major party of another?

      Labour had no idea whether Winston would stand, and he wouldn’t give them an indication either. To assume, without any knowledge, that Labour is being obtuse here betrays your politics.

    • Don Franks on Redline criticises Little for his stance in Northland, saying Peters is racist and shouldn’t be supported.

      Huba, huba…………..I guess part of being on the left means a range of perspectives and this usually translates into “Labour got it wrong”

  3. Labour’s best interests are served by a National win. Why would Labour want to allow Peters more oxygen? Sure, a Nat scalp would be nice, but it’s the long term that counts. And in the long term (even by the next election, if things go badly enough (for a government slowly losing its way) Labour will regain enough votes to take its pick of partners.

    Prime is a good candidate who can/should been given a high-enough list spot.

    • Hello, what was I saying about Narcissistic attitude of Labourites and their MP’s …

      Wrong on both counts.

      Long term strategy for Labour should be to get National out by getting agreements with other parties to govern.

      Short term strategy, rein in National on RMA, war, assets sales etc and shock the MSM by showing our dear leader is unpopular by giving the best shot at unseating a Nat MP.

        • Appears they are listening at last. To quote Stuff.co….

          “In his strongest hint yet, Labour leader Andrew Little has said if voters “want to send a message to Government”, his candidate – Willow-Jean Prime – may not be in the best position to do so”.

          • Too little too late. Labour supporters are trying to say that they had to stand a candidate because they didn’t know NZ First’s intentions at the time. This only proves that Labour has not communicated with its allies. Again.
            If Little had offered Winston a clear field on condition that NZ First remains an opposition party, does anyone seriously doubt that the offer would be accepted?
            The really smart move would have been for Little to have a highly public cup of tea with Winston. The symbolism wouldn’t be lost on even the dumbest voter. Now Labour’s ownly recourse is to withdraw its candidate (if that’s legally possible), which would look a lot more dodgy.

  4. Yes Martyn,

    I loved Q+A with Heather Duplesy Allen interviewing Andrew Little, as he was wriggling around on a stick when attempting not to answer the sticky question of who he would rather see as Northland MP, a National or NZ First Winston candidate.

    Heather was adamant asking again and again for Andrew to choose and he didn’t.

    I was sympathetic to Andrew for his tight collar controlling his wooden approach as it hurt his Party not to change with the winds of change.

    The Northland TV3 poll that asked if there was only a race between Nat’s Obsborne & NZ First Winston the electorate would be over 50% for Winston so we do need to have labour step away Andrew.

    Andrew did leave in my mind the muddled impression that he said it was up to the northland electorate to decide who they wanted to choose to send a clear message to Nat’s to change direction.

    • It was up to the people last election and they didn’t choose Labour,because Labour wont use strategic options and was so obviously following Nationals opinions, plus they think TPP is ok when big majority don’t.
      Voters wont risk Labour repeating same mistake but would applaud them stepping down ,public opinion is with Winston , acknowledge it Mr Little

  5. Like the Hunger Games,

    Remember who the real enemy is,

    The odds are never in our favour.

    (If the votes are split we lose).

  6. Yep…..more NUMBNUT thinking from Labour.

    I scratch my noggin in wonderment at what passes for strategic planning when Labour opens the doors to their think tanks.

    I read 36% for both Winston and that other no namer from National.

    I swear many of the Labour party come from a town called Springfield and the planners are running around bumping into each other and grunting DOH !!!!

  7. National, given enough rope is hanging themselves anyway. It doesn’t help they put up an inexperienced candidate, Mark Osbourne, whose appearance bears a remarkable resemblance to Larry Flynt.

  8. Ahh … ?

    My first, albeit brief, foray into researching Winston Peters and the Wine Box inquiry to refresh my memory revealed this piece .

    Stuff.co.nz ( http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/602329/Papers-throw-doubt-on-Winebox-claim )

    ” Mr Peters answered questions in Parliament on May 10, 2006, about Wine box legal fees. ”

    Further more ;

    ” However, four bills obtained by The Dominion Post, all dated June 2, 1995, and from Mr Henry to former NZ First staff member Terry Heffernan, suggest Mr Peters appears to have misled Parliament. The bills total nearly $24,000 and were coded as being paid by Parliamentary Service.

    Mr Peters said last month that a legal fighting fund was set up in 1991 to pay for his Wine box fees and for other defamation cases he was involved in.

    The bills also raise questions about Mr Henry’s statement to Parliament’s privileges committee, which is investigating a $100,000 donation to Mr Peters’ legal fees from billionaire Owen Glenn. ”

    Owen Glenn ! ? What the FUCK ! ? What was the outcome of that investigation ? Does anyone know ?

    Only a person desperately trying to find some kind of comfort in these heady days of crooks being in control of OUR government would unquestioningly place their trust in Winston Peters . I’m sorry .

    As for Labour versus National ? Think Helen Clarke and Jenny Shipely sliced vertically down the middle then their halves sown together ? A Hel-Jenny clone . Frankenstein’s monster in a frock ! Tell that story to the kids around the camp fire if you want to give them a sleepless night .

    Humans ? We have no government . We have no elected party , and if we did ? We’d have no opposition to it .
    We do have a cadre of swindlers who can’t lean forward to wipe their fat arses for all our money stuffed into their back pockets though. The Northland bi-election is a farce and it doesn’t matter one small flying feathered fuck who gets ‘ in ‘ . We will still have a room full of cheap crooks and liars stealing off with your money . As they have done for more than seventy years . Longer , if one were to get pernickety .

    You trust Big Bus Peters? Oh. My. God.

    • Feeling depressed today Countryboy, its understandable given the polititions and lack of trust people have in them.
      I suggested that Winston Peters give a promise not to support Key if he gets picked for Northland, but Peters never promises anything if he can help it.
      We cant guarantee that any politition will not renege, lying has become the norm to be almost accepted thanks to Key.
      Maybe everyone could write to Winston to ask him to make the promise,if he dosnt then we can be suspicious. but to accept the status quo we are not going to happy with that either.i think id trust Winston over Key any day of the week.

      • Yes , I’m feeling fucking depressed . My beautiful country’s being ransacked by scumbags , my beautiful fellow Kiwis are being churned out as monsters or are becoming that which they hated the most so I stick by what I’ve written here . Winston Peters is as crooked as most of the rest of them .
        In my view , the difference between him and the likes of jonky is that he has the dubious privilege of being able to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares because I believe that is his job and MMP is the perfect platform for him to work from . His job is to mislead by using truisms, using logical fallacies to misdirect dissent and disperse focus away from the deep-state status quo .
        Like it or not . Big , bad shit went down during the 1980’s and ’90’s and all that shit just disappeared . None of the Players got so much as a stern telling off and now we have 250 thousand kids in trouble , some of the most appalling stats re social dysfunction including health , education and imprisonment and it’s worsening for us .
        Voting for peters because he may be a lesser evil is like hanging ones self in preference to shooting ones self when suicide seems like an only option . ( Crass metaphor I admit )
        What we New Zealander/ Aotearoans need desperately is a royal commission of inquiry into the relationships between the tacky , graceless Big Business, old-boy privileged , pampered , pompous wankers who tie us up in knots while making us jump through hoops then rorting us for the services and amenities we paid for with our taxes and with the lives of our whanau, friends and family through too many wars AND the greedy , cunning , power-mad politicians ( Petty authority figures ) who treat us like shit for their humour .
        Voting’s no longer a dignified process thanks to them . They’ve sullied our democracy with their greed and has made us suspicious and paranoid . I’m speaking from experience , you may have noticed .
        So , to the Parties then ;
        Greens ?
        A novelty party , all for the environment an’ stuff . Their very presence makes us feel good . Like using biodegradable dish washing liquid then heading into town in the Rangie to pick up the 2.5 white kids from the decile One school darling .
        Labour ?
        A beige opposition of lack lustre six figure people who care deeply about us … provided we continue to pay them to be.
        National ?
        An incestuous Old Family of adept swindlers so used to taking the worm ( Read money ) from the blind hen ( Read farmer ) that they now feel as if that process is an entitlement . A right . It’s because of that level of confidence, that they can pull off that swindle without raising so much as one single alarm within the ranks of the few actual farmers out there who haven’t yet been assimilated into the corporate cooking pot .
        The sundry other expensive collections of dysfunctional’s , bow tie wearers , blatherers and professional promisers ? They’re career politicians and frankly fuck all use for anything else otherwise they’d be doing something else in the interests of their dignity . They use each other , abuse each other , lie , mislead and disperse dissent and New Zealand First is the Master of Ceremonies . Winston’s weathered 1940’s cowboy look works a treat with his target generation . Straight-up’s who call a spade a spade . Naive old people who were secure for having built a welfare system to stave off anxieties in old age but who now live in cold houses in an alien jonky-world with fixable ailments on year long hospital waiting lists .
        That’ll learn em .
        That’ll learn us all .

  9. Well Country boy.

    We do know Winnie better than Fuck John Key don’t we?

    If only because he has made many more candid appearances before the media.

    Key has gagged the MSM & the truth and slime balled his way into secrecy at every twist and turn.

    So “better the devil you know” for me.

    And of course that’s what Winnie would say.

  10. Who the heck would vote for Labour in this by-election? It’s effectively a wasted vote, not worth the effort of making a trip to the polling station, unless one’s a masochist. Because the only thing that’s going to be red is the welts on one’s arse once an uninhibited Key is done whipping you. Unless anyone is into that sort of thing, the opportunity to throw a spanner in the works should be seized.

  11. I am not sure what the problem is here. Labour have a great candidate, Peters waited till the last minute to confirm he was standing. Labour had to put forward a candidate, because it was possible Peters might not have stood. If they hadn’t put WJ forward, and Peters hadn’t of stood, there’s not even an election.

    Then Winston stands, much to many peoples surprize, he’s polling well enough to win the seat. Little lets people know if they want to send the govt a message they know what to do. Anyone with half a brain knows what to do here. Those on the left who now don’t vote for Peter’s will be people who can’t stand him and wouldn’t vote for him no matter what. The minority I think.
    But Little states he back WJ and they want her in Parliament. THE RIGHT THING TO SAY. HE HAS TOO. But the left voters in Northland aren’t fools. They know they have been given Little’s permission (if they needed it) to vote Peters. I CAN’T SEE A PROBLEM HERE.

  12. Well, well. At last people are waking up to the Epsom and Ohariu scenarios. Better late than never. This is how you control NZ politics. This is what MMP is all about. Get with it.

  13. Leading from the centre

    I agree with this Post That Labour don’t get MMP, (or don’t want to get it).

    While National fully embrace it. As Martyn points out in this post, Labour has no chance of ever getting 40% to allow them to rule alone. Without, that is, destroying every other party Left of Centre. (Which seems to be the strategy that Labour have been following so far, with predictably disastrous results).

    To put it simpley:

    The same way that the self described “Centre Right” National Party take up Right Wing ACT Party Policies – that Cenre Right National supporters feel uncomfortable with, to become the government.

    To ever become the government again, self described “Centre Left” Labour, will also have to make an accomodation with the parties further to the Left than them. (and on occasion Populist Centrist Parties like New Zealand First) This will no doubt mean agreeing to some Left Wing policy positions that are further Left than Centre Left Labour supporters may be comfortable with.

    As the old political saw goes: “In times of crisis the centre cannot hold.”

  14. Its pretty clear. If you live in Northland and you are unhappy with the National government then vote for Winston. If you like National then educate youself on what is going on in the world. How Washington is provoking fear and violence in the middle east and violence and possible nuclear war in Ukraine and then vote for Winston.


  15. Stakes high as Little gives Winston the nod

    “It’s too late for Little to remove his candidate. Especially when he spent so long at the start staunchly stating he would not play those electorate games.”
    “But that was before the polls set the lay of the land.”
    STACEY KIRK The Dominion Post, 09/03/2015

    Looking back, in retrospect, Lynne Prentice has called Andrew Little a “total dunce” for making this call.

    “Andrew Little faced a high-stakes gamblling opportunity, and he was either entirely right, or alternatively a total dunce, when he turned it down.”
    LYNNE PRENTICE On Northland

    We would hope that Andrew Little will learn from this lesson, and not again give to much credence to the weird advice that emanates from the more sectarian Right Wing corner of his movement. And that he becomes more open to more balanced, or at least nuanced counsel before making such a call again.

    “Looking at the numbers and the situation I can neither see Winston or Willow-Jean Prime winning on their own even if the other was not there. Hell, I’ll even bet that their combined vote in the current byelection where they give voters some choice would be less than 2/3rds of the worst National candidate. This non-gambler would even be tempted at half. I like sure things when I bet.”
    LYNNE PRENTICE On Northland

    My advice to Lynne, would be you are so one politically one eyed that you would be wise to stay away from gambling on political matters.

    He is not a stupid person. I mean, how could Lynne get it so wrong? if he were not blinded by an ideological hatred of Mana?

    You have to wonder. When Lynne can write such stuff as this:

    “As Rob said on the ideas from Mana that Bomber was munting then and ever since…

    “”All this, you understand, comes from the excellent starting point of wanting to replace the current government with a united, powerful left-bloc of Labour, the Greens, and Internat MANA. Yet the analysis is designed to split the left, not unify it; and the recommendations would help the left lose, not win. Top work.””

    LYNNE PRENTICE On Northland

    When the complete opposite was true! The strategy of Labour not working with the Left (Mana and the Greens) is a big part of what cost Labour the election.

    How on earth, could calling for Left unity “split the left, not unify it”?

    It defies logic.

  16. You’ve got to feel a bit sorry for Andrew Little. He’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t in this situation. In the end he made the right call yesterday, which I respect him for. Letting the voters decide, with the writing on the wall, was absolutely the best course of action, given it is too late to withdraw Ms Prime. Winston could have reached out to Labour, also. The phone line runs both ways.

  17. Evidently, I have run a personal poll of the people I know, including “blue” voters. The result was 90% Winston. He is drawing votes from the left and right, that is why he will win.

  18. More astounding stuff gets thown up in the course of the Northland by-election

    Who would think that the mad hatter tea partier, resident of Epsom and “willing seller, willing buyer” of Ohariu Belmont, would have the sheer effrontry to criticise Labour over their tactical endorsement of Winston Peters.

    Only National’s low Crosby Textor attack goons could have thought up the sleezly inuendo word association link to furtive underage sex

    http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/labours-behind-the-bike-sheds-deal-pm/ar-AA9wTm1?ocid=AARDHP

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