Winston’s time to shine in Northland by-election



Northland matters.

In the post election hangover, Voters may be a tad discouraged at how they handed Key almost total political dominance. Northland voters are blue, drained of the Maori vote who overwhelmingly stay on the Maori electorate, Northland is an electorate of Farmers and provincial businessmen. It’s bluer than the liquid they use to show tampon absorption powers on TV adverts.

It’s blue.

But the scandal that has sunk Sabin will quickly spread as Key gets caught out lying again over timelines of when he knew what. The NBR have already caught him out. So whatever happens to Sabin, National will be damaged by association.

Whatever thick necked thug replacement National roll up as a candidate won’t meet the charm and dazzle of Winston Peters.

Labour can’t win Northland, but NZ First might.

Either Winston runs, or he asks his good friend Shane Jones to step up. The By-election could be a vote on Key’s handling of Sabin and a chance to moderate the National Party.

TDB Recommends

It all depends on how willing the opposition parties are to being co-operative to take away National’s majority without needing United Future or the Maori Party.



  1. With the way Key is squirming around this matter may have more legs to it than a simple byelection for yet another National MP. I hope the Taxpayer Union condemn this waste of taxpayer money, oh hang on the Taxpayer Union is really the National Party isn’t it?

    Because here we go again with John Key and his bloody memory/honesty issues who told RNZ “To the best of my recollection, the first that I knew about it was that last week of 2014, of the Parliamentary term,” . He also told Rawdon Christie on “Breakfast” “In terms of his personal family matters, he’s put out a statement saying he left Parliament for personal family reasons. I was aware that A) He was going to resign a day or two prior to that and I was aware of the personal family matters for about the last week of Parliament last year [Dec 8 – 12]. So that’s the timeframe”.

    Sort out the evasion from the doublespeak and it appears Key knew a lot about something that is not good, something so uncomfortable that it requires this kind of bullshit answer.

    “To the best of my recollection” translated for those non Key spotters means the escape clause; In other words, I’ll punt that no one who can’t be trusted knows that I knew far earlier than I have said about Sabin, but I can fall back on my legendary memory fades again if someone finds out otherwise.

    Matthew Hooton said this morning on RNZ that National knew about issues with Sabin prior to the 2011 election, and even sent a delegation out to see him at the time, whatever these issues were.

    Maybe Winston can pull off a coup, better chance than anyone else, but the latest polls suggests no morning after regrets by National voters.

    • Not all Northlanders are Farmers and Businessmen,there are a lot of fairly well off retirees. Most are ordinary people.
      Keys appeal is not the same anymore ,as for TV 3 poll I wouldn’t bet the house on their result, they are mostly National media trolls.
      I like Winston but think he will cross the floor forNational if its in his interest.same with Shane Jones

  2. I’m from the Far North and have always tended to vote National more recently (though voted for Labour in ’93 and ’99 – go figure) only because other options just don’t sway me enough. However, I do wonder what we have ever got up here for such loyalty. Our roads are absolute shit, Air NZ has just told Kaitaia people that they have to drive 100km to Kerikeri to catch a 40min flight to Auckland, we are routinely ignored by central government and if the Juken Nissho mill closed we’d be f….d. As such, I am very open to anyone standing for any party as long as they focus on the North and not Wellington.

    • Well Mark you seem the kind of voter that needs to seriously consider changing a bad habit which is all voting tory is up North unless it directly benefits you in the back pocket. Which it does for a small number.

      John Carter generally represented Wellington in the Far North not the other way round, he was a pleasant enough guy unless you were Māori but so what when the roads are crap, no new bridge is likely at Taipa in our lifetimes and the young leave the area when they leave schools run too often by commissioners.

      Why East coast retirees and low paid workers vote Nat up here is not beyond me I know some of the region specific reasons. But it is time for a change.

    • As a Sth Islander I have only ever been to the Far Nth once and I did think it looked a very run down part of the country and have wondered ever since just why it is a National strong hold.

      Surely Labour can work on the young voters up there, get the ones who didn’t vote in the General Election of their backsides and into the poling booths as they will get more benefit ( not meaning benefits ) from Labour and NZ First than they ever will from the Torries.

      If Labour and NZ First can work together I reckon they will give National a real shake up there.

    • The roads are shit and Transport Minster Simon Bridges travelled through part, part mind you, of Northland to have a look. A small part. He even thad the temerity to fly to Whangarei and start there probably because he couldn’t face the hazard of the Auckland to Whangarei bit.

      And then the scumbag prime Minister this morning said the Greens and Labour were against improving the roading infrastructure, presumably because they’re against his Holiday Highway which his cobbers want so they can travel more easily to their Northland baches.

      And Martyn, as for there being any backlash from Key lying about the timeline, forget it. It’s what he does, it’s what people expect.

      This morning on NatRadio when Key lied, Brent Edwards accepted the version of events saying Key had “put to bed” that story. (of the order of events). Within the last hour Edwards has said that Key changed his story during the day, in other words had lied again.

      Some people walk the dog, some people play darts, some people tell lies.

      • Key knew about Sabins problems last April ,well before the election.If others lie to parliament there are repercussions .Key gets a free pass to lie and forget he lied .

    • That’s the problem, too many idiots up north vote for National, without thinking, thus the Govt can conveniently ignore us and give us shit service, whilst giving GREAT service to borderline constituencies.
      IF the more intelligent Nat voters thought for more than one second, they’d realise that if the didn’t vote National and thus make this a less safer seat, the Nats would HAVE to take the Far North seriously (which they CLEARLY don’t given ALL the broken promises and lies……ask Simon Bridges about ‘the fat mans’ promises (he who doesn’t have to follow airport security…..just pay a fraction of his one month salary) re; the local roads up here) …….rather than as just a bunch of muppets who’d vote for a possum if it were under the Nat banner.
      Ho hum, what chances of Nat voter thinking before voting. From recent experience NOT LIKELY.
      The Far North is ONLYT a strong hold because of the split vote and no one well known stands up here.
      If the opposition can’t get their act together they deserve to loose and we in the Far North are worse off as a consequence.

  3. “It all depends on how willing the opposition parties are to being co-operative to take away National’s majority…”

    National has already won

  4. I too suspect that Key is using selective language. It’s my opinion that there are two ‘events’ being referred to here. The assault allegations which happened in the past, and ‘personal family matters’ which have happened this week (maybe a divorce due to the previous assault, I don’t know). I think people should very specifically question Key on when he knew about the assault allegations against Sabin. If that was prior to the election and prior to the 2011 election possibly, then that means Key is OK with assigning somebody with assault allegations against them to oversee a law and order subcommittee.

    If so, this would indicate very poor decision making on Key’s part, and again a questionable moral compass.

    In either case, I’m pretty sure Key is using the phrase ‘personal family reasons’ as a way of obfuscating and confusing the two events. He may have only found out about one this last week, but the real question is when he knew about the assault.

    Once we’ve factually determined when Key knew what, then we have to appraise his handling of the issue, has he been lying, yet again, to the people of New Zealand? If I were a betting man I’d bet heavily on yes.

    • SADY we’re unlikely to find out about any of JK’s lies, because the Lame St Media send along muppets, like Gower et al to ask prearranged questions, with the odd AGREED ‘gotcha Q’.
      Basically Democracy barely happens in NZ nowadays, we now live in a plutocracy, disguised as a democracy, held together by propaganda in Lame St Media….which is owned by the wealthy who run this country.
      Well at least we think we’re decent people living in an egalitarian society……so that’s OK then.,……..we sort of feel good about matters and can get on with watching ‘My Kitchen rules’ and similar reality rubbish TV.
      Just borrow a few Billion pcm to give to those desperately poor, starving, cold and unhealthy multi millionaires

  5. I encourage Colin Craig and Sensible sentencing to run as well. Do you think they could get 9000 votes between them?

    • Yes, it will be interesting to see if the Conservative Party will run a candidate. Could split the right wing vote somewhat.

  6. I’ve said it before and will repeat for the nth time; the Right Wing – which espouses Individualism to levels of obsessive-compulsiveness – is better at collective political action than the Left, which supposedly acts collectively, but is in fact about as ruggedly individualistic as Daniel Boone, Davy Crockett, and Grizzly Adams not rolled into one.

    Until this schitzophrenic attitude in the Left is recognised and addressed, we will get nowhere.

    Until Labour is able to deal with the Greens and Mana as National deals with United Dunne, the ACT cult, and the Maori Party, we will continue to run around in circles, nipping at each other.

    The public will view us as clowns.

    And the Right will say, “Thank you very much, Left. Please keep on doing what you’re doing now”.

    • Frank, my hunch is that the Torrie majority will be halved in the upcoming By-election.
      But Labour certainly has to get it’s house in order to do so and I reckon they are doing ok so far.

      A lot has happened in a short time since the General Election that will have the voters questioning National.
      And if they do take a bath up there it will be a huge blow to them.

      This is going to be very interesting.

    • You are of course absolutely correct Frank. It does make me wonder if some actually prefer being in opposition.

      • Yes, the opposition has to work together. If they do, a win is quite possible. Its a by-election. The outcome wont change the Government. Voting isn’t compulsory. The stage is set for a massive absentee vote.
        The voters will be annoyed that they are having to go through another mini-election, especially it it transpires that John Key knew before the election that Sabine was a dead duck. If the local Nationals stay away in droves as a protest-and the opposition field just one candidate a win is possible.

  7. We will never know exactly when Key knew about Sabins assault allegations because Key will either not tell us … or he will tell a lie safe in the knowledge that he can’t be found out ……Wayne Eagleson will never nark on him .

    But one fact we do all know is that Key knew about the allegations and still left him as chair of the Justice and Law committee …….

    How sick is that ???

    Mind you with Nicky Hager getting raided and having his work equipment and research stolen by police ………….combined with the fact the roastbusters are still running around ……… Could easily lead one to believe the Nats have rehired Clint Rickards and given him the top job in the police.

    Lets hope Sabin does not get a roastbusters type prosecution ( none ) .

  8. Here’s hoping Northland will do ‘an Aussie’ turn around, and start the tide turning in a new direction. We all know New Zealand needs it.

  9. You know I feel quite sorry for Mike Sabin ,if his problems were mentioned when they first appeared instead of hidden by John Key it would have died down by now. Sabin has had to put up with constant vilification just so Key could win the election.
    I have personally met Mike Sabin , I honestly don’t think he is a thug,maybe he has a temper,maybe was provoked.
    I wouldn’t have voted for him and I don’t know what he’s done I can only guess,just because he was a cop dosnt make him a thug ,local cops are pretty decent on the whole.
    This incident happened a while ago, why didn’t the law do something about it,again because of Mr Key determined to hide it so it wouldn’t affect elections, and naturally Sabin went along with it, he was ambitious and hoped it would go away.
    So now a good career ruined,well a good career from a polititions point of view.Maybe it would be kinder to leave him alone to lick his wounds.

    • Dear Elle, your innocence is astonishing and when you said “I honestly don’t think he is a thug” and “I feel quite sorry for Mike Sabin”, I actually felt pity for you. When you finally find out about the ‘assault’, don’t get too angry!

  10. The whole sabin affair stinks and anyone who feels sorry for him is probably not to fussed or worried about men like him committing violent or sexual assaults ………………

    I get the feeling that with the ‘super suppression’ where even the police and the PM will not even confirm that there are allegations or an investigation underway caused them to believe they could keep the whole thing secret ……… perhaps sabin gave Key an assurance that the case would be dropped???.

    If I were a betting man I would pick that Sabins offending involves the drug alcohol and violence against woman or children….. I say this simply based the fact that far more kiwi men, partners and husbands engage in domestic violence rather than rooting the kids …… especially when they are pissed.

    The irony of Mr meth-Con possibly being a violent drug crazed nutter on the drug Alcohol has not escaped me.

    Alcohol is the Number 1 drug for causing violence and crime in this country ……….. Something you will never hear mr Key or his ” drug expert” Mike Sabin acknowledge.

  11. Id Peters has the best chance of taking Northland from the Nats – so be it. Support his bid. (And I am no fan of Peters, let it be said.)

    But it’s a forlorn expectation… Political self-interest tops any desire to get rid of National’s dominance in Parliament.

    • After some consideration Winston could be supported running as a ‘spoiler’ candidate, there are people that do not want to vote Nat but would not vote Labour if their lives depended on it.

      By Elections are First Past the Post. If Labour runs a strong campaign and improves it’s vote it is just possible that Winston would siphon off enough votes from a weak tory candidate to let Labour through if the Greens don’t stand. Full count from 2014 here.

      Which brings us back to square one–left unity.

  12. Joyce has already talked about developing the great economic potential of Northland. Just watch because National are going to throw more lollies at Northland then they have ever seen before to save face and their majority.
    Will Peters stand and risk coming a distant second or even third behind a good labour candidate Maybe.
    Question. Can the Northland maori who voted on Te Tai Tokerau enrol onto Northland for the by election and wouldn’t it be cool if they did and everyone got in behind Peters or Prime. Sort it out over a cup of tea.

    • Unfortunately for this by election the Māori electoral option is only available every 5 years, the last opportunity for people to go on the roll or change being in 2013.

  13. How desperate we are, how desperate I am at times, yes, let Winston run, and shake the by-election up, I would love it.

    Truth is that National will not have a top class candidate run such a provincial election, as most of their arrogant senior members will view it as “below them” to go up there, and try and fill the halls, or knock doors, and end up with shoes stuck full with cow shit.

    And yes, while there seems to be a very motivated and good Labour candidate, the North will never vote Labour, well not for a long time to come. The only sensible challenger is Winston, as even Colon Cringe Craig would not appeal to the more earthy rural lot up there.

    Winston is from there, it is his home territory, he knows every angle and corner of the North. He also has the resources, charisma and knowledge to appeal to enough that may want a change. There will be many that will vote Nats no matter what, but hey, give Winnie a chance, at least to mix the show up a bit.

    There should be enough frustration up there for voters to consider a non National candidate. And how does it go, is there not a chance for Maori to enroll to vote on the General Role, or is that restricted for a time, once you are on it?

    Winston and NZ First can only gain through standing, as it gives them ample attention and profile, perhaps even votes.

Comments are closed.