Looming by-election in Northland



National Party Thug, Mike Sabin

I think the by election in Northland is a foregone conclusion. The only reason the appalling allegations agains Mike Sabin aren’t public is that his political opponents are waiting for Parliament to start so that they can rip him to pieces in the House.

On Paper, Northland is a National Party fortress, but the situation Sabin has got himself in and the ramifications for when and how much Key knew will turn voters off National.

With the possibility of a by election, the Opposition need to make some hard decisions. The detente between Greens and Labour could flex its muscles if  the Greens agreed not to run a candidate. Convince NZ First not to run and it could be a straight Labour vs National. It would matter because losing a seat would mean National couldn’t pass legislation without requiring the Maori Party or United.

It would mean a less far right National for the next 3 years.

The issue for Labour is who they would parachute into Northland  as their candidate.


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  1. The opposition party’s need to get their heads around MMP and how to use this voting system to their advantage. Selfish, foolhardy vote splitting just gifts winnable seats to National. Voters see this and it’s off putting ‘Christ if they can’t even work together to win seats what chance of a cohesive Govt’.

    I would like to see a different approach taken by the main opposition party’s. A primary contest amongst themselves with the wining candidate becoming the sole electorate candidate running off against the National puppet. The losers are party vote only and endorse the candidate who won the primary. It wouldn’t cost much and not too hard to work a voting structure, proportionate to members plus a cross party voting panel. A couple of hustings and then the major husting with pre and on the day voting. Certainly gain new members for the party’s and a good deal of public interest, local and natiional. Be a great shakedown for future contests.

    • 1000% Skinny,

      Full points to your suggestions, of combining their opposition vote to boot out the evil empire reigning over us all.
      Thanks to Martyn for raising this extremely important election strategy

    • The problem is that when Mana/Internet DID use the system they were universally derided for rorting the system.

  2. We don’t know the story of the assault, until we do its just speculation on a bye election.
    Judith Collins can get away with crimes, John Key can get away with his crimes ,Gerry Brownlee can get away with crimes,etc etc do you imagine National will allow a seat to be lost , no way, John Key will rig it to shut everyone up and Sabin keeps his seat.
    Since when has John Key played by the rules? If justice was done John Key and his mafia mates would all be gone .Justice has gone the same way as asset sales ,national sovereignty, jobs ,anything decent that NZ used to be, down the pan.

  3. You are having a laugh if you think that the Opposition would have anything but a snowballs chance in hell of winning the Northland seat. It would be like expecting National to win in South Auckland. Just ain’t going to happen.

    • I agree.

      “… the situation Sabin has got himself in and the ramifications for when and how much Key knew will turn voters off National.” Well, maybe one or two (or even up to four) will turn off National, but get up here and see what the thinking is like. A ‘snowball’s chance in hell’ is an underestimation.


  4. According to some media sources it isn’t a single allegation, it is allegations, which is putting the rumour mill into overdrive up here. Sabin’s wife has disappeared from public view. Sabin’s silence is doing him allot of damage. Even whaleoil has been putting the boot in, so whatever it is, it’s bad.

  5. Labour does not need to “parachute in” a candidate like they indeed have done for years in the Northland seat. They have a perfectly serviceable candidate in local woman and FNDC first time councillor Willow Jean Prime, she did well enough against Sabin in 2014.

    If Labour put as much effort into trying to roll National in a by election as they did into supporting Kelvin Davies in the West Auckland end of Te Tai Tokerau to roll Hone they could be in with a chance.

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