What an election campaign. The character assassination of David Cunliffe kicked things off with the Herald on Sunday falsely claiming $100 000 bottles of wine, $15 000 books and $150 000 in donations from a donor that turned out to be all fantasy. Then we had claims of hate politics in the form of burning effigies and so called ‘Nazi chants’ which all paled into insignificance the second investigative journalist Nicky Hager’s explosive Dirty Politics allegations highlighted the disgusting matrix of true hate politics operating between Slater & Co, the mainstream media and the National Party.
The allegations covered blackmailing Rodney Hide into standing down as leader of ACT, hacking the Labour Party server and downloading their entire database, trawling brothels for sleaze on journalists, gaining Secret Intelligence Service information to embarrass a political opponent, rigging candidate selections, moving a prisoner to a far off prison they then attempted a suicide at for a ‘friend’, publicly crucifying a public servant and of course attempting a hit on the head of the Serious Fraud Office. You would think that would be would enough madness, but it wasn’t. Judith Collins then resigned all the while Key told the country ‘nothing to see here’.
When your Justice Minister has to resign because she’s been alleged to to be part of a plan to take down her own head of the SFO, things aren’t going well.
We then had serious allegations of mass surveillance from Edward Snowden, Glenn Greenwald and Julian Assange where the PMs story changed daily. First it was ‘no middle ground’ and ‘I’m right, they’re wrong’. Then it was childish name calling, then the release of declassified documents that had nothing to do with the issues being challenged and then finally Key had to admit that yes, maybe there was mass surveillance occurring but played semantics by claiming it wasn’t really the GCSB, just the NSA programs that the GCSB use.
Those revelations were ignored as journalists took turns tearing strips off Kim Dotcom for deciding to take his evidence to Parliament rather than present it at the Moment of Truth. Such demented journalistic priorities proved why the meeting should have been held as close to the election as it was.
Then we had Eminem hilariously suing the Government for using his song illegally…
…and this morning Mr Christian Family Values, Colin Craig had his Press Secretary resigning saying she thought Colin was a very manipulative man.
Cough, cough. God won’t be happy.
Throughout it all, the mainstream media held onto their bias in favour of Key and showed how very disconnected the Press Gallery view from Wellington had become. Their flawed landline opinion polls of the last 3 years intended to manipulate opinion rather than reflect it will be a challenge to explain on election night, I’m looking forward to some squirming. If Key is the captain of the Titanic and Slater the iceberg, then Hosking, Plunket and Henry are the band playing on the deck as the National Party slowly sinks. The bias and narrow viewpoints allowed in the mainstream media, especially in light of the Dirty Politics scandal, should stain and taint them all forever. That 3rd Degree was as late as this week still using Whaleoil for story ideas to attack Kim Dotcom should embarrass all involved, pity they couldn’t put the kind of journalistic skills to track down workers in the Philippines on tracking down Jason Ede instead.
So after the most vicious election campaign in living memory – what will actually happen? The backdrop of an incredible surge in early voting and the real anger on the ground from Dirty Politics isn’t showing in the mainstream media’s version of events and I think that will cause real surprises on election night.
Here is my call
ACT – wiped out, will not win Epsom after a calculated campaign by Labour & Green voters to strategically vote Goldsmith in. Wasted party vote.
Maori Party – wiped out, will not win any electorates. Their relationship with National has burned them, even if they manage to hold onto one seat, they won’t generate enough Party vote to pull anyone else in with them.
United Future – Dunne may hold on, but it will be close.
NZ First – God damn it, I thought this election it would be over for Winnie, but Cunliffe’s ‘sorry for being a man’ comment revealed the deep seated conservatism and anti-feminist mind set of a lot of older male Labour Party voters who have all walked off to Winnie – 6-8% for NZ First.
Internet MANA – have had speed wobble issues as they moved from crawling to sprinting. Needed far better internal discipline than occurred. Will win Te Tai Tokerau, will win Waiariki will win 4-5% of vote. Would have won 7% if their full employment and free education policies hadn’t been sidelined by ill timed attacks on the media.
Greens – sterling campaign, one of the best in the election will win 13-15% of party vote. Their time to be taken seriously and be at the table has come, will burn a lot of credibility if they do end up helping National out with policy. Looks likely to be snookered however by Labour & NZ First.
Conservative Party – Mr Christian Family Values has some issues with his Press Secretary resigning 2 days out from the election after calling Colin Craig a manipulative man. Will not get over 5% now – wasted vote.
National Party – Despite the media supporting Key and playing down every allegation, Dirty Politics has hurt National badly and the impact will be their supporters staying at home this time and undecided voters voting specifically to get them out. Expect National to get 43-45%
Labour Party – Cunliffe won all the debates, he has a vision but a deeply divided Caucus who seemed hell bent on being off message a lot of the time. The saving grace of Labour is their massive election machine on the day being able to do far more than National’s can – this will lift them out of the poll doldrums – expect anything between 27%-30% on election night.
I think we will see a Labour-NZ First Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens.
Despite the mainstream media polls that have screamed National will win by a 50% landslide for 3 years, this election was always going to go right down to the wire, and it will.