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Final prediction on election result 2014

By   /  September 18, 2014  /  74 Comments

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Despite the mainstream media polls that have screamed National will win by a 50% landslide for 3 years, this election was always going to go right down to the wire, and it will.

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What an election campaign. The character assassination of David Cunliffe kicked things off with the Herald on Sunday falsely claiming $100 000 bottles of wine, $15 000 books and $150 000 in donations  from a donor that turned out to be all fantasy. Then we had claims of hate politics in the form of burning effigies and so called ‘Nazi chants’ which all paled into insignificance the second investigative journalist Nicky Hager’s explosive Dirty Politics allegations highlighted the disgusting matrix of true hate politics operating between Slater & Co, the mainstream media and the National Party.

The allegations covered blackmailing Rodney Hide into standing down as leader of ACT, hacking the Labour Party server and downloading their entire database, trawling brothels for sleaze on journalists, gaining Secret Intelligence Service information to embarrass a political opponent, rigging candidate selections, moving a prisoner to a far off prison they then attempted a suicide at for a ‘friend’, publicly crucifying a public servant and of course attempting a hit on the head of the Serious Fraud Office. You would think that would be would enough madness, but it wasn’t. Judith Collins then resigned all the while Key told the country ‘nothing to see here’.

When your Justice Minister has to resign because she’s been alleged to to be part of a plan to take down her own head of the SFO, things aren’t going well.

We then had serious allegations of mass surveillance from Edward Snowden, Glenn Greenwald and Julian Assange where the PMs story changed daily. First it was ‘no middle ground’ and ‘I’m right, they’re wrong’. Then it was childish name calling, then the release of declassified documents that had nothing to do with  the issues being challenged and then finally Key had to admit that yes, maybe there was mass surveillance occurring but played semantics by claiming it wasn’t really the GCSB, just the NSA programs that the GCSB use.

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Those revelations were ignored as journalists took turns tearing strips off Kim Dotcom for deciding to take his evidence to Parliament rather than present it at the Moment of Truth. Such demented journalistic priorities proved why the meeting should have been held as close to the election as it was.

Then we had Eminem hilariously suing the Government for using his song illegally…

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…and this morning Mr Christian Family Values, Colin Craig had his Press Secretary resigning saying she thought Colin was a very manipulative man.

Cough, cough. God won’t be happy.

Throughout it all, the mainstream media held onto their bias in favour of Key and showed how very disconnected the Press Gallery view from Wellington had become. Their flawed landline opinion polls of the last 3 years intended to manipulate opinion rather than reflect it will be a challenge to explain on election night, I’m looking forward to some squirming. If Key is the captain of the Titanic and Slater the iceberg, then Hosking, Plunket and Henry are the band playing on the deck as the National Party slowly sinks. The bias and narrow viewpoints allowed in the mainstream media, especially in light of the Dirty Politics scandal, should stain and taint them all forever. That 3rd Degree was as late as this week still using Whaleoil for story ideas to attack Kim Dotcom should embarrass all involved, pity they couldn’t put the kind of journalistic skills to track down workers in the Philippines on tracking down Jason Ede instead.

So after the most vicious election campaign in living memory – what will actually happen? The backdrop of an incredible surge in early voting and the real anger on the ground from Dirty Politics isn’t showing in the mainstream media’s version of events and I think that will cause real surprises on election night.

Here is my call

ACT – wiped out, will not win Epsom after a calculated campaign by Labour & Green voters to strategically vote Goldsmith in. Wasted party vote.

Maori Party – wiped out, will not win any electorates. Their relationship with National has burned them, even if they manage to hold onto one seat, they won’t generate enough Party vote to pull anyone else in with them.

United Future – Dunne may hold on, but it will be close.

NZ First – God damn it, I thought this election it would be over for Winnie, but Cunliffe’s ‘sorry for being a man’ comment revealed the deep seated conservatism and anti-feminist mind set of a lot of older male Labour Party voters who have all walked off to Winnie – 6-8% for NZ First.

Internet MANA – have had speed wobble issues as they moved from crawling to sprinting. Needed far better internal discipline than occurred.  Will win Te Tai Tokerau, will win Waiariki will win 4-5% of vote. Would have won 7% if their full employment and free education policies hadn’t been sidelined by ill timed attacks on the media.

Greens – sterling campaign, one of the best in the election will win 13-15% of party vote. Their time to be taken seriously and be at the table has come, will burn a lot of credibility if they do end up helping National out with policy. Looks likely to be snookered however by Labour & NZ First.

Conservative Party – Mr Christian Family Values has some issues with his Press Secretary resigning 2 days out from the election after calling Colin Craig a manipulative man. Will not get over 5% now – wasted vote.

National Party – Despite the media supporting Key and playing down every allegation, Dirty Politics has hurt National badly and the impact will be their supporters staying at home this time and undecided voters voting specifically to get them out. Expect National to get 43-45%

Labour Party – Cunliffe won all the debates, he has a vision but a deeply divided Caucus who seemed hell bent on being off message a lot of the time.  The saving grace of Labour is their massive election machine on the day being able to do far more than National’s can – this will lift them out of the poll doldrums – expect anything between 27%-30% on election night.

I think we will see a Labour-NZ First Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens.

Despite the mainstream media polls that have screamed National will win by a 50% landslide for 3 years, this election was always going to go right down to the wire, and it will.

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74 Comments

  1. Realist says:

    I think 15% is at the low end of estimates for the Greens. With much higher voter turnouts they could hit 17-18% quite easily especially as more young people are getting involved this time. I predict a lot of young people will be backing Internet/Mana for their role in revealing the truth, but will be reluctant to vote for them for fear of wasting their vote. They will tick the Green box on the day.

    • thekiwisonfire says:

      Fortunately for the ‘left’*, there are lots of choices this election. You can vote Green or Internet Mana if you don’t trust Labour, and know your vote is going to help change the government. If you don’t like the left and don’t like the Nats, or you are more of a conservative then you can vote NZ First.

      *The MSM try to portray every party to the left of National as the ‘far left’. Though the real spectrum is more like below.
      Center-Left: Mana/Internet, Greens
      Center-Left to Centralist: Labour
      Centralist-Center Right: NZ First
      Far Right: National, Act, Conservatives

    • Sarah Moore says:

      Greens always get more on the postal vote too – and no polling is done of expats.

    • Darth Smith says:

      iam a labour member but I would like labour greens government we just have tackle public transport ,these framer wreaking the environment and not paying taxes and i want fracking banned and metria turia is just so hot!

    • Darth Smith says:

      we have our jobs to on election day labour is lucky we turn out thousands of volinteers no other party can match not even national and for the left thats a good thing

  2. Super unknown says:

    Key better book tix back to Hawaii

  3. CDR says:

    It would be very disappointing to see Labour align with NZ First. The Greens could do so much with Labour, I truly hope they band together. We so desperately need a new guard in NZ politics and Winston is old, old school. Here’s hoping for a red/green future.

  4. Dawn says:

    I wish I had your optimism! I wanted to vote Mana but felt I had to vote a different way to change the govt. I am really annoyed that Labour tried to appease voters by ruling out Mana and Maori! Those parties and the Greens have more policy in common and the fact that Winston is so stubborn about “race based parties” means the left stitch themselves up every time! Unfortunately the right don’t have these issues and are all united in their quest for power! If we are stuck with another National govt then that will be down to labour once again trying to appeal to the middle earthers! Their message should have been like a stuck record “we can not speculate on coalition partners until the voters decide on the 20th” because all the talk prior to that is just media trying to sensationalise to create news!

    • Darth Smith says:

      dont lose sight of the primery aim to remove the keyster and his goons

      • Anna says:

        My main problem with this line of thinking is that I don’t think Labour are much better than National. The lesser of two evils is the same as a choice between kissing your first cousin on your Mum or Dad’s side.
        People are free to disagree with me, but my distaste for Labour is so strong that if we were under FPP, I wouldn’t vote. #Truestory

  5. Z says:

    I really hope your predictions come to fruition.

    • seagull says:

      Yes but the Greens MUST be in Cabinet!!!…for a Labour led coalition to have any credibility whatsoever!

      …and Int MANA does have MANA despite the vicious attacks on Dotcom’s integrity from the severely ethically compromised msm journalists ( who pays these hacks?)

      …IntMANA should be afforded a place of honour in support of the Labour led coalition…they have never sought Cabinet positions. Laila Harre and Hone Harawira ( also Sykes and Minto) must be given positions of responsibility as they represent the young , students, beneficiaries and Maori …. as well as a democratic sovereign New Zealand where citizens rights are protected from overseas surveillance and interference and harassment and theft of their assets.

  6. Did you enjoy the subliminal background messaging on the Debate?
    Every time DC began to talk, the Red line started heading downwards.
    Followed shortly by the Green and Black lines, heading downwards.

    It created the most marvellous effect, with all the Blue lines appearing to head upwards.
    With music by CrosBeat Boxtor.

  7. Kat says:

    The Labour caucus is not as divided as you may think.

  8. elle says:

    Disappointed Labour and National ganged up on dot com ,mean trick.

    One of your articles names an American company now in nz,it is more than likely the spy base in nz , people are looking for a waipowai type place .
    Very clever journalism , pretty sure Snowden was hinting at this place.Pity you cant get the news out big time before election,but Herald nor tv would help,JK wouldn’t like it .
    Of course it could be said the company is making jobs for NZs ,imagine it NZs spying on NZ.

  9. Lara says:

    If Labour get about 25%, Greens get 15% and NZ First about 9%, then for Winston Peters to insist on a deal ONLY if Greens are outside cabinet is not democratic.

    Winston needs to acknowledge the level of NZers the Greens are in parliament to represent. For NZ First with less votes, to have a stronger presence and voice than Greens with maybe even twice as many votes, is NOT DEMOCRATIC.

    • Jim47 says:

      Using your logic on democracy that Winston should allow the greens into cabinet because of more votes should he not support national who will get more votes than both labour and the greens

      • weka says:

        No, because NZF policy is a better fit for a left wing govt than a right wing one. The greater majority of NZF voters want NZF to go left (which is why Peters is hedging his bets on the GP). Of course Peters can choose whoever he wants, but IF he wants to go left, then the democtratic thing would be to work with all the left wing parties that have enough votes to get into parliament. He of course won’t do that because despite his rhetoric of listening to the people, he’s an old school power and control politician.

        • weka says:

          btw Martyn, the pop out from the right of the screen is a real turn off, because it’s a moving image in a static page and because it blocks part of the comments. More and more I’m just closing the page instead of reading on, as it’s easier to command +w than to find the close button on every single page.

        • Lara says:

          and also because NZF + Labour + Greens is greater than NZF + National

          so by going with Labour + Greens more of the country is directly represented in government

          simple. math.

        • cleangreen says:

          Hi Weka,

          Good to see you over at TDB, they are a friendy lot here also.

          I have had lots to do with NZ First in our campaign to save the Napier Gisborne Rail service

          Tracy Martin is a gem along with Winston and Denis Orourke..

          All who care about the environment.

          They have a talented pool there, so we feel they fit well as a centre fringe left environmental steward Party.

          Six years of these awful National crazies have almost wrecked the environment for a fast buck.

          A safe set of hands here with Labour NZ first Greens. Who knows they may all compliment each other, while benefiting us all.

  10. The Real Matthew says:

    I’m glad we have this in writing.

    I look forward to the humble pie post on September 21.

  11. Mistery Mistery says:

    I think we will have a Labour Green coalition, and Im looking forward to it!!!!
    No Ministerial posts for the dodgy gNats!

    gNats be gone!!!!!!!!!

  12. mango says:

    Bomber has picked almost exactly what I am expecting.

  13. fambo says:

    I think this interview on Nine to Noon with Metiria Turei is worth listening to as it successfully undermines the argument for a Labour/NZ First government. As Metiria points out in the interview, in such a government, Winston would have to come knocking on her door every time he wanted to get something passed in Parliament, and as she more or less says – “I don’t think so”. I think Metiria knows Winston pretty well from being in Parliament so long. Nothing speaks like experience.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20149792

    More interestingly, Metiria points out that should the Greens be the government with Labour, they will not be looking for a couple of cabinet seats and first dibs on some policies while Labour runs the government. They expect to be a complete part of the governing process as things move along, working with Labour side by side. This is a highly intelligent and sophisticated approach and the only sensible one for the Greens to survive and continue to grow as part of a Government coalition.

    • The Daily Blog Martyn Bradbury says:

      Right – so Winston goes to National and forms a Government citing the greens were the reason he couldn’t cut a deal with Labour? Welcome to 3 more years of National and the Greens get blamed.

      Genius, pure genius.

      • seagull says:

        Winston does that at his peril…and his reputation will be sealed
        I dont think he will do it because he wants a noble finale…and also he hates John Key and the Nacts more than most!

        Labour must stay staunch with the Greens…and its roots are with the IntMana constituency…so to cut them out and down will be cutting its own throat

        Winston must behave himself !

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell says:

        If the left does manage to scramble something together, they will need Winston, and the Greens and Hone. And Hone has never been able to work with anyone, ever. I give them six months.

        • Who Gnu says:

          Gormless. As opposed to National’s habit of losing ministers and coalition partners? Collins? Banks? Dunne? Plus a shit load more.

          Ahem. So. You were blathering on about something? Silly silly boy.

      • Dennis Dorney says:

        The ‘pure genious’ lies in those buffoons who will vote for NZ First even though they dont know where that party will park its vote, allowing it to play off Labour against National.
        The responsibility for this debacle lies with Labour who have promoted the totally self-serving NZ First above the loyal Internet Mana. If Labour hadn’t meddled, the vote NZ First has now would be sitting in IMP’s pocket and the Left would be coasting to an easy victory. Labour will pay a high price for this duplicity.

        • Dennis Dorney says:

          So only one vote out of seven, but no-one wants to tell me where my comments are amiss? Why not? If you have an opinion I would like to hear it. After all isn’t that what this blog site is about?

  14. countryboy says:

    I think what might happen is that National will win , take on the Conservatives and ACT and just as they start to get all carnal with The Real Mathew up there in a sweltering pit of Vaseline , paula bennett , and christine rankin stink , the Alien armada will land , vaporise all human life and let the chickens and pigs out of their cages .
    The headstone on humanity will read ” Oops , sorry wee beasties . They seemed like a good idea at the time . “

  15. Jguest says:

    I honestly think I am so excited for election night and a few weeks ago I was really worried and sad. Will be an amazing night for the candidates who have worked hard.

    Makes me sad to see Dunne predicted to get in. He’s such a poor community person and he doesn’t take his electorate seriously at all.

    He drops meetings at the last moment and doesn’t come to community events. He introduces synthetic drugs but refuses to meet with members of the Rare Disease community to discuss orphan drug protocol despite several requests.

    He sucks.

    • Lara says:

      really?

      I’ve had sleepless nights worrying that NZers will vote for a surveillance state…

      and now to think NZers may put Winston in a king maker position AGAIN….

      Its doing my head in, truly it is!

  16. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    I was just looking at iPredict, which was almost spot on last time in the elections (as Bomber will attest), and it’s pretty grim viewing.
    85% chance for a National win. https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2014.NATIONAL
    Hone is on EXACTLY 50-50 for his electorate. https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=169

    I dunno. As a founding member of The Internet Party, I’d love to vote for them, but I think I’m just going to switch to Labour at this point (which is actually pretty much exactly where I landed politically anyway… if TVNZs Vote Compass is anything to go by). Strengthen the opposition as much as possible is my thinking.

    • Lara says:

      crikey

      problem is, Labour are just National Lite

      not much difference between them really!

    • Aaron says:

      It depends where they’re getting their information from. The media has been so remarkably biased this election that I suspect a lot of people are making their bets using poor quality information.

    • kevin says:

      You’ve been sucked in pal.
      iPredict is SO so manipulated.
      If you look at the cost to fiddle iPredict versus the positive gain of this type of remark/publicity (or is it opposition propaganda….??? !!!) then the (MONER) losses some will incur are worth the rort.
      Let’s see how accurate iPredict is after the event, and not just the final result by iPredict; look at also the last month of their (bollocks) ‘numbers’

    • Nitrium Nitrium says:

      Just voted for Internet-Mana. It’s the closest thing we have to the Anti-John Key Party. Hopefully Hone holds his electorate or I will have wasted my vote.

  17. Patrick McGuire says:

    So a coalition between Labour and New Zealand First, you say.

    Now, that’s a cause worth fighting for … NOT !!!!

  18. Mike says:

    I’m a Green party voter but I think National will get in with Act, Dunne and the Maori party. However, my prediction is that ongoing revelations about GCSB will seriously destabilize the government and see National’s support plummet by mid term. I believe that Key will finally lose his credibility amongst mainstream NZers leading to National being decimated in 2017. In 2017 I believe that the Greens will get in excess of 20% of the vote, leading to numerous cabinet positions.

  19. Beasly Petes says:

    If the election goes National way, and follows the poll, will you write a piece or tweet out why you were so wrong?

  20. adam says:

    So as Trotter predicted some time back here on the daily blog. If labour look like they going to lose – then it’s knife in the back time for the rest of the left. Well if that happens – and I’m getting that from labour, especially in the maori seats. And somewhat towards the greens. The left and working people need to ask some serious questions – and then make some very hard choices.

  21. Darth Smith says:

    i think nats are going to lose roturua tamakie may just nail that one

  22. word says:

    I think we will see a Labour, Green, NZFirst government, with a confidence and supply agreement with Internet Mana.

  23. ShanghaiSue ShanghaiSue says:

    Isn’t Winston Peters 70 years old and a hard drinker and smoker? Will he last another 3 years?

  24. Amy says:

    So what happened to the Ede emails?

  25. Stuart Munro says:

    I think the Gnats will do a little worse – according to Hoots historically they’re 6% off their polling – and the world trend is declining poll accuracy. If we allow 1% for that Roy Morgan would have the Gnats on 39. 39 & 9 puts NZF into a left alliance – which Winston will cheerfully do for a palpable swing.

    Whyte will jump ship to the CCCP, when ACT is interred for the last time, where he can work in peace on orbital mind control lasers and floating pirate charter schools operating in international waters.

    Key will depart for Hawaii hotly pursued by auditors, an Eminem lawsuit asking the court to seize his assets Dotcom style, and a royal commission, and Paula Bennet will perish in hospital of heart complications after being gut-shot and inadvertantly tagged ‘not-for-resuss’ en-route to her consession party.

    Whaleoil will be kidnapped by armed South Island separatists and eventually found by ACC investigators concerned by a rash of repetitive strain injury claims caused by excessive kicking. Gerry Brownlee will shuffle off this mortal coil having indulged in a surfeit of lampreys, and Peter Dunne’s hair will shave him off for charity and reappear on Mike Hoskings.

  26. Andres says:

    “May god listen to you and the DEVIL be deaf”
    is an ols Spanish saying
    jajaj
    adios Mr LIER???

  27. Mike the Lefty says:

    I think this election is too close to call and in the end it might be a rogue electorate or single percentage point in the party vote that tips it either way. One thing that I have noticed over the last few days is the worsening relationship between the Conservatives and the other parties. I think both the right and left blocks will be praying that the Conservatives don’t make it into parliament. Key would loathe having to give them anything in return for C and S because Craig has been quite scathing of Key over the last few days. Also the prospect of Craig and Winston Peters working together in a coalition is just about zero. So no Conservatives and Key has to deal with only one upstart, not two at the same time. The left would dearly love the Conservatives to fail simply because many of them (Hone and Minto in particular) don’t want zealots like McVicar in parliament.

    By the way Martyn, thanks for you all your great articles and insights into the political goings-on during this campaign. Good to read as always.

  28. Valleyman says:

    If national win, I might as well put a rope round my neck & kick the stool out from under me.

  29. XRAY says:

    Any nagging doubts about National and their links to the media need look no further than the wall to wall National front page currently on Stuff.Co and the Heralds website.

    If I were trying to be an objective credible media outlet then it would not be looking like that. Its put me off reading them.

  30. Kate Kate says:

    Bring on the after party, the left have to win, it just wouldn’t be cricket if they don’t.

    Think of the movie that will be made about this period of time in politics, and at the (end of the day) it wouldn’t be a good movie if the left don’t win. Like Star Wars Darth Vader loses, Cunliffe can be Han Solo, the Greens Luke Skywalker with a bit of Yoda mixed in, Winston maybe Obi-Wan Kenobi he’s been around the longest he must have the ‘Force’, and use it for good* OMG my imagination has gone a bit over the top…. * GO THE LEFT!

  31. e-clectic says:

    The climate doesn’t give a fuck about who wins.

  32. Lionel says:

    I’m in the Whanganui electorate got home from up town today there’s a bloody message on my answerphone with John Key’s voice on it
    pushing Party Vote National with all the propaganda bullshit to go with it fuck they are desperate.

    • Guesting says:

      This has sure been a very interesting election. Nail-biting ‘Wag The Dog’ x ‘Watergate’ x ‘Minority Report’. Glad no ‘Alien’ crossover.

      My husband is in the demographic for National voter; he’s been called twice this fortnight to be reminded to vote. We’re going Green.

  33. aaron says:

    In reply to Lionel I got a message tonight too but it was a message with David Cunliffes voice,pushing party vote and their propaganda, must be equally needy

  34. Thane Pullan says:

    you’re dreaming with act and maori being wiped off, especially with act, i think they’ll do a leader switch for a second time in a row. maori will maybe get less seats, maybe not, probably not no seats. i think it’s open what will happen with labour and national. no chance with the conservatives, i completely agree there

  35. Rhys williams says:

    the people have spoken….nz does not like dirty politics, mud slinging, biased media, conspiracy theories, stolen emails, threats to the stock market, being called rich pricks when you are a small business owner trying to make ends meet, and the biggest turning point, capital gains tax, thousands labour supports did not agree with this stupid tax and voted accordingly…its that simple

  36. […] I was naive in the extreme to think that 6 years of Slater’s toxicity could be cured months out from the election by the truth and it couldn’t. […]

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