What will soft National vote do, why Colin Craig will be a focus in final week and why msm will hope Key wins



In what has been the most unpredictable election of our time, the final week promises more shocks and bombshells than World War One trench warfare.

We have the media who still have the Rawshark emails that detail the Ede-Slater exchanges. The email address that will become the smoking gun will be a photocopier email address that links Key’s Office directly to Slater, expect to hear a lot about L9-photocopier@parliament.govt.nz.

We have Kim Dotcom’s moment of truth (streamed live on The Daily Blog) where he will detail the evidence he has against Key. Expect a lot of gasps.

Then we have the Matt Blomfield defamation case against Slater. Blomfield was the victim of a shooting at his house and the victim of Slater’s bizarre attack on him after Slater gained stolen emails (oh the irony). Who threatened Blomfield and who was involved in the shooting will take some interesting turns now Blomfield can demand full disclosure.

Then we have the high level security inquiry into how the SIS information was leaked to Slater. The results will be damning.

Then we have the investigation into the attempted hit on the head of the SFO. Those results will be damning.

And then we have all the pending legal investigations into the plethora of filth that Dirty Politics has thrown up. I have an idea that those results will be career ending.

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In short, while the compromised mainstream media who have empowered Slater as much as Key has tries to claim Key will win by a 50% landslide, the reality is that there are now so many serious investigations on going and about to be launched that Key will be terminally damaged regardless of a win or a loss. The Press Gallery may choose to ignore the truths Dirty Politics has exposed, the judiciary won’t.

But how is any of this impacting voters?

Those who are knuckle draggingly National refuse to accept anything about any of this is any more than a communist conspiracy. Those dyed in the wool National voters secretly love that Key and Slater were as disgustingly despicable as they were because in their minds eye, dirty-filthy-lefty-queer-Maori-loving-pinkos deserve the bash. For them this will only embolden their vote on the 20th.

The strong blue collar tradies however are a group of supporters who may well stay at home. The phenomenal response form almost every door knocker intel break down I’ve seen is that the self employed male vote have heard the weasel words Key has spoken drip from the same lips of the big money men who step in and shut down projects or refuse to pay invoices. Those tradies know a big money liar when they hear it, they haven’t read Dirty Politics, but they’ve read what’s been written and they’ve scrutinised Key’s responses and they are deciding to turn their backs on Key altogether. Those tradies won’t vote Labour or Green, they just won’t vote this election.

It’s safe to say the incredible early voting we are seeing that has been such a huge part of the CTU, Internet MANA, Green Party and Labour Party strategy this election isn’t because of National Party voters rushing out to support Key.

But what about the soft blue voter? Those voters who had supported Helen, but switched to Key in 2008 and 2011 and who have been won over by Key’s empty optimism and vacant success are having serious doubts. I’ve seen the focus group research on soft Blue voters and it is terrifying for National. Over half of them believe Key is lying about everything and the number of negative views and comments about Key has reached highs never seen before in the 6 years Key has been in power.

Prolonged evidence over the last week reinforcing those already held beliefs is what will see National Party support drop to 43-44%.

My guess is that we will hear “Colin Craig” come out of the mouth of David Cunliffe more this week than he has ever said his life. The reality of how far back the Conservatives want to dial the liberal wins of a modern society back will galvanise urban voters and anyone with a basic enough education to comprehend simple science.

The biggest loser here from a possible National Party loss however is the mainstream media. Their slavish, uncritical devotion to Key for 6 years has been caught out by their deep involvement with Cameron Slater, if National lose, expect some real demands of a new focus on ending corporate media’s influence with a much stronger public broadcaster.

This will be an election week unlike any NZ has witnessed.



  1. I don’t know if the investigations into the SIS and SFO will bear much fruit as Key, the man at the very epicentre of this disgrace has set the limits of those enquiries, obviously to mitigate all if not most of any connection to him. If this was a straight up full on independent enquiry without government interference then yes I would have some hope.

    Otherwise I think you are right.

    However it makes me wonder though why the Greens want to go near Key, he’s horribly tainted. Bearing in mind the opaque nature of the SkyCity convention centre deal, Oravida or the secret free trade deals being negotiated in “our name” to name a few I’d hate to think what has gone on over these last 6 years in government possibly in regard to convoluted hidden payoffs as a reward for doing business with the NZ Government. After all these are men and women who are extremely motivated by personal financial gain and power and thought they were clever enough to avoid scrutiny, at least until Dirty Politics scratched the surface.

    • “However it makes me wonder though why the Greens want to go near Key ”
      Hm This article is about the media and its pimping for Key
      So when the media say the Greens are looking to move towards National
      and the Greens say that they are not .
      Who you gonna believe?

    • I keep reading this misunderstood view that the Greens have entertained working with National. If you listen to what Russel Norman has said – he talks about possibly, maybe ‘working’ with National as opposed to working with National. Norman was merely saying that he’s no so intransigent that he wouldn’t work with them if there was an agreement on a particular issue (like they did with home insulation). He has repeated that National is the antithesis of the Green Party.

    • Russel was on the Nation this morning, and I think he said that they were trying to smoke out National. Testing the waters to see how “green” National actually are. By the Nats saying they wouldn’t touch the greens, Russel said this showed that they don’t care about the environment, even though they are trying to convince potential voters that they are good for the environment… That move could have upset harder lefties, but I think it was quite clever. It could also push blue-green voters more towards the Greens?

  2. I am quite over the prolonged build-up. I can’t imagine what more revelations will galvanise people to defriend National.

    I do hope that all these revelations are being disseminated far and wide, in all the languages of NZ. Loud and wide in all the languages of immigrants.

    Sadly, most immigrant Mandarin speakers accept corrupt Dirty Politics as normal. They don’t know any other.

    Still waiting for my voting card. I just want to vote.

  3. In short, while the compromised mainstream media who have empowered Slater as much as Key has tries to claim Key will win by a 50% landslide, the reality is that there are now so many serious investigations on going and about to be launched that Key will be compromised regardless of a win or a loss.

    While I wish it were true, I don’t think this will happen. We’ve had over a decade of right wing western governments openly bullshitting the public and being caught thanks to the internet, and the result has been that they get re-elected. Key and company will be emboldened by this because it shows they have a good chance of seeing out the scandals through pure audacity and the aid of the media, who were complicit in the scandal.

    Whatever the resulting form of government is, it is not liberal democracy.

    Say what you like about old time tories such as Muldoon. At least they often had the decency to give you their considered reasons for why they acted as they did. Key is, on the other hand, a flagrant bullshitter. He knows that his answers are the verbal equivalent of placeholder text, and he doesn’t give a fuck.

    And that’s the truth of it here. We in the reality based community can have as much evidence as you like, and they just don’t give a fuck. The public don’t seem to either. I guess we will find out how bad it is on Monday.

  4. Dirty politics can be described as a pot boiler – that pot is very slowly heating up. Most people don’t form their opinions without first having many conversations with others. These conversations will result in the slow decline of John Key’s authority in the longer term (if he’s re-elected). In the shorter term the drag on National will be due to the fact that Key lost badly in the third debate with regards to poverty. His economic argument was incoherent because it is solely informed by a strident right wing ideology. So I am also thinking that National will get a figure of 45% or below on election night even without further developments re DP, Dotcom etc.

  5. Well…Mr Greenwald has already spoken in today’s Saturday Herald ,…I notice though the editorials and opinions are getting positively embarrassingly biased to Key- running down Peters, Labour…and extolling the virtues of both National and Key.

    If you read it….you will need to furnish yourself a bucket and some tissues,

    Its sickening.

    Roll on Monday September the 15th.

  6. The CONSERVATIVES may get a small but vital boost in popularity from dirty politics round 2.

    New Mon Sept 15th attacks on Keys credibility may drop the Nats poll rating back another 2-5% which at face value is good for the left block but where will the disenchanted Nat vote go ? Labour doesn’t seem to be picking them up ….

    They seem to be going to NZ First and the Conservatives ,and the Conservatives are already very close to the magic 5% threshold ….

    If only a small percentage of disenchanted dirty politics Nat voters decide to change camps it could push the Conservatives over the 5% towards the end of the week .

    This is potentially a very dangerous outcome which could gift the election to Keys .

    This would mean 5-6 new Conservative mp’s for a National coalition with NZ First now completely irrelevant .Hello Collin Craig , the new king maker .

    Lets hope like hell on the day , the Conservatives stay under 5%.

    Tactically in the last week All Left block leaders must strenuously reinforce the view that there is a high probability that a vote for the Conservatives (on averaged polling 3.7 or less) is a wasted vote , and to vote for a party which will actually have some genuine representation .

    I hope like crazy the baby smackin nutters don’t get over the line .Its going to be one hell of a week .

  7. Just listening to that hideous Christine Rankine on Radio NZ reminded me just how ghastly she is. Not so long ago she had an open affair with the partner ( now Rankine’s husband) of a successful real estate agent in Wellington. The agent was so upset she committed suicide. After that Rankine was caught going through her wardrobe and driving around in her 1967 classic Mercedes sports car.

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