WITH LESS THAN A FORTNIGHT to go until Election Day, the broad outlines of the voters’ choice are becoming clear. Labour has refined its position to one of anticipating a tripartite arrangement with the Greens and NZ First. The National Party, unmoved by recent polls, is hoping the voters allow them to begin their third term with the same support partners as their first and second: Act, United Future and the Maori Party. John Key cannot, however, discount the possibility of having to enlarge his support combination by including Colin Craig’s Conservative Party.
Both of these configurations reflect the central political reality of this election campaign: that New Zealanders have become considerably more cautious and (small-c) conservative than they have been for many decades. If, for whatever reason, voters desert National in sufficient numbers to allow Labour, the Greens and NZ First to make a centre-left government, it is clear that it will be a coalition shorn of radical policy.
David Cunliffe is sending three important messages to the electorate. 1) That he considers NZ First indispensable to effecting a change of government. 2) By very publicly ruling out any kind of accommodation with either Internet-Mana or the Maori Party he is signalling that he understands “Middle New Zealand’s” current distaste for radical ideas. 3) He is inviting them to interpret his reaching-out to NZ First as proof of his moderate bona fides.
John Key faces a very different set of problems. On the right of New Zealand politics there is a growing impatience with what it scorns as “Labour-Lite” policies. In this context, Nicky Hager’s revelations concerning Judith Collins will have come as a Godsend to the Prime Minister. They have allowed him to temporarily spike the guns of Ms Collin’s and her Far-Right faction of the National Party caucus and reassured nervous National supporters that the Government is not about to embark on any Tea Party-like excursions into ideological extremism.
The downside of Hager’s disruption of the election campaign is the bleeding away of votes it has occasioned to National’s right-wing rivals. Both NZ First and the Conservatives have benefited from these defections (the former more considerably than the latter) and this raises the very real possibility that Key, in order to remain in office, will be forced to make the sort of political concessions that could seriously destabilise his government.
If he opts for NZ First, he will be obliged to anchor his government very firmly in the harbour of Mr Peter’s caring, paternalistic and overtly interventionist “one nation” conservatism. This will outrage his own neoliberal colleagues, strengthen the hand of Collins’s supporters, alienate Act and empower those Conservative MPs (we are assuming here that the Conservative Party crosses the 5 percent MMP threshold) excluded from Key’s political solar system.
On the other hand, if he throws in his lot with Colin Craig’s Conservatives he will have hitched his wagon to a new and untested band of political eccentrics and Tea Party-type “ultras” with the capacity to drag his hitherto unthreatening and predictable centre-right government into the ideological badlands. In the finely balanced Parliament both sides are expecting post-20 September, the Conservatives could very easily prove to be much more trouble than they’re worth. And, if they were seduced into making common-cause with the equally eccentric Ms Collins, the Conservatives could conceivably end up threatening the Prime Minister himself. Craig’s messiah complex is unmistakeable – and there can be only one!
Clearly, the potential for instability and ideological confusion is considerably greater on the right of New Zealand politics than it is on the left. Once Internet-Mana are excluded from the constellation of acceptable Opposition stars, what the electorate is presented with in a Labour-Greens-NZ First combination is a coalition government erected on two extremely solid foundation-stones: economic nationalism and environmentalism.
Popular antipathy to land sales to foreigners (almost certainly intensified by Act leader Jamie Whyte’s ill-considered intervention over the weekend) is reflected in the manifestoes of all three parties. Combine Labour, Green and NZ First pledges to put the heft of the state behind a major effort to improve the productivity of New Zealand Incorporated with the growing public concern about the health of New Zealand’s waterways because of “dirty dairying”, and the populist potential of the Labour-Green-NZ First policy agenda is readily apparent. All three parties will find themselves free to manoeuvre on extensive common ground.
David Cunliffe, Russel Norman, Metiria Turei and Winston Peters have just 11 days to convince a confused and jittery electorate that although a Labour-Greens-Internet-Mana combination may have represented an unmistakeable and unwarranted lurch to the Left, a Labour-Greens-NZ First combo could turn out to be something much more palatable.
All three parties must campaign hard for a Government possessing the collective wisdom to distinguish necessary from unnecessary change, and the political courage to make it happen.
Anybody that still believes that Winston will side with Labour is either totally ignorant of history, or a Tory in disguise!
Winston is campaigning for the ‘left protest vote’ jsut as he did in 1996:
“In the 1996 elections, the MMP electoral system delivered a huge windfall to New Zealand First. The party won 17 seats and swept all of the Māori electorates. More importantly, it held the balance of power in Parliament. Neither National nor Labour had enough support to govern alone. Neither party could form a majority without the backing of New Zealand First, meaning Peters could effectively choose the next prime minister.
It was widely expected that he would throw his support to Labour and make Labour leader Helen Clark New Zealand’s first female prime minister. Peters had bitterly criticised his former National colleagues, and appeared to promise that he would not even consider a coalition with Bolger. However, after over a month of negotiations with both parties, Peters decided to enter into coalition with National. Michael Laws, the party’s campaign manager, later claimed that Peters had already decided to join forces with National and used his negotiations with Labour simply to win more concessions from Bolger.
Whatever the case, Peters exacted a high price for allowing Bolger to stay on as prime minister. Peters became Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer (senior to the Minister of Finance), the latter post created especially for him. Initially, there were concerns about whether Peters would be able to work with Bolger, the National prime minister who had previously sacked him from Cabinet, but the two did not seem to have any major difficulties.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Peters
One could argue that Winston had Bolger over a barrel, …and that Peters felt he could do more to curb the more extreme neo liberalism that made up much of Bolgers cabinet by making them have to compromise.
I am more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the Silver Fox.
Winston only went with National first time around because Helen Clark did not have the numbers to form a government, even with Winston and NZF on board….because Jim Anderton ( Alliance)would not go into coalition with Labour and give Helen Clark the numbers to govern.
..Winston was faced with the choice of going with National and trying to change Neoliberalism economics ( the sale of all state assets) from the inside out or being instrumental in the calling of a new Election ( see Helen Clark documentary)
…If Peters had chosen to force a new Election the voters may not have been happy with him….Peters choose to go with National and as we all know he pulled that government down over the sale of yet more state assets….( the Nats have hated him ever since!…even more than those on the Left who felt betrayed)
The Nats subsequently tried to wipe Peters out over the Owen Glen affaire…with a concerted campaign against him for over a year…He bounced back ….I doubt he will help John Key get back into government . Peters loathes him and Nactional policies.
The loathing is mutual….hence the continued attacks on him from the Right …even although Key and Nactional they know they need him to govern.
Thanks Seagull, I was not aware that Anderton would not go into Coalition with Labour.
I do feel a bit better about NZ First now.
Spot on Thomas! I still remember to this day his speech on TV. I shall quote, “Read my lips, if you do not want a National Government, vote for NZ First.” He became King Maker the night of the election and we didn’t hear a peep out of him for weeks and we know how it ended.
And Chris, let’s not start to get cold feet about Internet/Mana. We need a major change of direction or we will all end up being beggars in our own streets. Like a cancer the curve into hell is getting steeper, look around you!
In the candidate programme on Maori TV last night, their polling of that electorate had IMP at 12%. I was shocked – 6% would’ve been a great result I’d have thought.
This is far from over.
NZ First is an interesting case. My suspicions tell me to just let him do his own thing.
The hypothetical scenario is that if Winston pledges to change the government before the election, it is much more likely he’ll lose votes than gain or remain the same. This being, immediately losing a couple percentage points to the Conservatives (which could push them over the 5% threshold and keep him under). And if Winston does have a couple % of right-wing voters tied to him and he ends up being in a coalition with the left, then it’s the left who’ll be winners.
In the minor parties debate, Winston called Te Ururoa Flavell out on not having any bargaining power at all since National’s got a firm hand on them due to Cabinet Club. This is a fair point, and Cunliffe would have assessed that risk. Potentially this move could have made the people that would have originally voted the Maori Party to change their vote knowing that the Maori Party would only again prop up the National government. But again, the Maori Party aren’t expected to do to well… but who knows, confidence and supply could even be dangled post-election.
The Greens, InternetMana and NZ First have not really declared any bottom line policies. Bottom line politics are a thing of the past, or, the thing of the right. I think they all recognise that it’s not about that, it’s about having influence in policy and decision making. So Labour’s in the middle of all of this. A Labour Government with, say, 50% Labour, 30% Green, 10% NZ First and 10% InternetMana… would mean that the Neoliberals within Labour will have to make huge concessions. In fact, their power would be inherently diminished.
For me personally, I’ll be voting InternetMana who have an approach where they are prepared to cooperate with anyone on each issue as they arise. If we look past the thinly veiled media narrative, they are not a divisive, extremely radical, egotist party (like you’d see with Act or the Conservatives). But rather, they are a party who do understand what change means, informed through multiple perspectives. If InternetMana have a desire to work with others because they understand that it’s constructive, then I’m sure that the Greens, nor NZ First for that matter, would be unable to work with them. I think that Clark’s 2005 coalition featuring both NZ First and United Future would have been more uncomfortable and contentious for Winston than anything.
You only have to look at the amount of collective experience between Hone and Laila – its counted in years.
How many years experience has the Act leader got in parliament?……let alone Colon Craig.
Zilch.
Disagree – the circumstances, tech economy, data, changing perceptions of democracy, social change have all contributed. There is no going back. I think Peters knows that.
I don’t agree that it is an ‘unwarranted’ lurch to the left.
The skuzzbag FJK and his filthy antics jeopardising our country for his own personal and crony mates gain, is what has caused the lurch to the Left – and the fact that Labour and Greens actually have ‘policies’ – policies that put the people in mind. This cannot be construed as ‘unwarranted’ – it is extremely warranted.
People will vote for the people this election, not the greedy money hungering corporates and private bankers, and insurance companies under FJKs umbrella crony scheme.
Opinion and belief.
I was appalled that a left -oriented journalist can put NZ First, which has no core beliefs of its own, before Internet-Mana that has very clear and consistent views. I cant see the Vote Positive in this. The need for a move to the left is very necessary. We are not talking of cynical deals here. We are talking of a Government that needs to find a new direction urgently. How can NZ First feature in such a Government?
Chris Trotter’s vision of the future seems to be yet more neo-liberalism which in the last 30 years has achieved nothing.
You are accurate, Thomas, historically. However, Winston now has the benefit of hindsight as do we all. I don’t believe Winston will ever get over his betrayal by the “tight five”. He may well talk to National in the first instance, but, I think only to enjoy the moment the more. His good experience of working with Helen will not go for nothing. The constant sneering from John Key will also carry weight. Utu is a bitch. And that without considering the synergy with Left policies in general. Relax.
Why would the Maori Party not be an option for Labour/Greens?
They strike me as a pragmatic party that joined with National not because that is their natural leaning but because it’s where they could get influence.
Oh well, Mr Cunliffe has made that decision already.
Because they are polling below 1% and Labour wants those votes they can not afford to lose any votes to Maori party who might go with National again. Also Winston has said he won’t work with them. It’s Cunliffe’s allegiance to NZ first this election that rules out the Maori party.
Now politics is a funny old game,
But even you must admit th’ Far Right is so lame,
From wrecking the workers,
Who certainly are not shirkers,
With borrowing and tax breaks for the richest.
And all that would be nice,the borrowing I mean,
If it truly and earnestly went to the workers,
But the children are starving,
Living costs they are carving,
So that many among us cannot buy our food.
And we yell and debate ,
But conditions negate , All the talk in the world.
The neo liberal idea,
Doesn’t fill us with cheer,
And the less seen of that tis the better.
So to finish this jibe ,
The Left lest you decide,
Is better for both boss and their workers.
Good timely Post!…for pragmatists on the Left this is a winning combination
….and it is no slight to Internet Mana because they have made it plain from the beginning that they will support a Labour led coalition but do not want to be in Cabinet
…so WIN , WIN, WIN!
( the only people who will be pissed off will be John Key and Nactional because they will lose the Election….but they have never liked Winnie anyway and bagged him at every opportunity! ,,,and for his part Winston Peters has been one of John Keys and Nact’s most effective critics)
Indeed…..I am not so pessimistic as some on the Left…..you get Labour/Greens and NZFirst, ….you will also get IMP.
Once a political beachhead is formed , sound direction through policys from ALL groups will be achieved.
There is no way IMP will be left out, instead…a solid future bloc on the Left will be established , and a necessary counter to the immoral, deceitful behaviour demonstrated by this current National govt.
There are many commonalities between all of these groups , – and – barring the remaining neo liberal ABC’s in Labour (which will be marginalised by demand of the other parties) – very fertile grounds for forging a very dynamic future….
We must remember also that many of the people aged 30 and under…were only BORN during the neo liberal deconstruction of our country. This large group in itself must be REEDUCATED that there is is indeed alternatives to neo liberalism.
It is up to the Left to lead the way – through dialogue, initiative, example , and co operation.
Once both this particular govt is out , a clean out and dialogue of the future of the MSM and its role can take place.
We need to ensure firstly that this sort of situation never has the chance to develop again.
Well said.
I’m beginning to really warm up to the Labour-Green-NZ First coalition idea with Internet-Mana providing the numbers on a case-by-case basis. I think people on the left want an blow dealt to the 30 years of neo-liberalism, but are also willing to be pragmatic to achieve their ends.
I am one of those (just under) 30s who was born during the destructive Douglas years.
I haven’t experienced the alternative, but being an avid reader of history, I’ve read the stories—and it sounds better than the all-against-all society we’ve been left with.
Not me I’m afraid.
I’ve voted Labour all my life and I’m rather depressed about what’s on offer this time ’round.
I think that “I’m sorry for being a man” finished me off.
**sigh**
So vote Greens or NZfirst or InternetMana
I’m a Labour voter, but I had hoped that a large contigent of Internet/Mana would provide the more left perspective I want to see. I want to hear Winston and David say feed the kids, and eliminate child poverty in unison.
You will see it.
Downwithnats, I too want to hear Cunliffe & Peters promise to make effective changes to end poverty for the most vulnerable in this country.
It should be every political parties prime target to ensure that all NZ ‘ers get a fair deal when it comes to decent affordable housing and adequate healthy food.
I would hate to be trying to raise a family in these times, it must be nearly impossible.
If you are putting your faith in Cunliffe and Peters to lead us to some peach coloured Nirvana, I can only suggest that you haven’t been paying attention.
I have heard them both say that.
@ Thomas . I agree completely . Sorry Chris Trotter .
peters is a tool . No , not in the common vernacular , as in dick or cock . He’s a tool . He’s a claw hammer who can pretend he’s a pair of pliers if pinching is a requirement over hammering .
There’s a great film called ‘ Lifeboat ‘ ? A brilliant film by Alfred Hitchpenis ( Sorry , I’ve always wanted to write that . ) that kind of shows how sneaky people can be who have an agenda .
Winston Peters isn’t driven by ideals , values , passions or beliefs . Instead , I believe he’s a man who’s found a niche market for a living . Running abstract defence for the enemy . Or the allies . Whom ever is paying the milkman .
The really good thing about my position with regard to my being compelled to write these things is that I can pray to God I’m wrong .
The difficulty with Chris Trotter’s tidy scenario is that until proven otherwise a vote for NZ First must be considered a vote for National. Right voters will be mightily miffed if Winston goes against his dog whistling with Labour Green. And left voters can’t risk voting NZ First as long as Winston won’t say.
There are so many variables at the moment, will ACT, Hairdo and Māori be in the parliament? They all, like IMP, need electorate seats to ensure that. IMP has firmed around the 2% mark while ACT and MP have dived to sub 1% and so on, Hairdo even hitting zero point zero. But the polls appear bent anyway. They are conducted by corporates and commissioned by corporates so can hardly be dispassionate neutral affairs. But they are influential prompters for aspirational tory voters subject to ‘group think’.
About the only thing known for sure is that the PM will be narrowly defeated or will narrowly win and then something else comes into play… a raft of investigations, enquiries and complaints to the Police and Ombudsman that will be keeping lawyers and the odd QC up at night for some months to come. Slow death like Nixon and no fun for the country.
But if Key gets back in…we can thank all those people who do have to stay up all night …..as he would of only crossed the line by default anyway therefore would be an imposter..
BUT, Labour needs at least ONE other party to get any where near the government benches, but don’t let the facts get in the way of your fantasy.
Personally as a middle age voter I find David Cunliffe entertaining (he is that awful) but my 20 something children loath him and there lies Labours problems and that was before he apologised for being a man!!!!
The party should have listened to his colleagues, that dislike wasn’t because they were jealous of all his attributes, but like my kids they just seriously find him a total turn off.
Children are the great imitators…that is how they learn. So just what was it they learned from you?
Bias?
Was it the hairstyle, Jo?
You and your children might try to look more closely at policy.
Or just wait for Brad Pitt to enter the race.
In my estimation, Cunliffe has actually done a pretty good job over the past few months.
@ Jo…David Cunliffe is not a joke and is not awful and is NOT loathsome….He is a decent man and an ethical and moral New Zealand politician…in the best of the Labour tradition. He is also very well educated and experienced in the financial sector
….so what does this say about YOU and YOUR family?!
…imo the best scenario is that you and your family are NOT very bright and have have been indoctrinated by John Key’s slander PR merchants .(.eg Cameron Slater and Whale OIL) and the bias of the corporate owned and slanted main stream media (msm)
Haha, education fail then, we all have tertiary degrees or just completing them. All I was trying to do was point out that Labour’s woes got a lot worst under the new leader.
I couldn’t stand Bolger, I still cringe remembering how he used to copy accents and there was never any humour. Loved David Lange; great orator, very intelligent and extremely funny…..the only time I have voted Labour!
Helen Clark was streets ahead of Jenny Shipley.
If you don’t believe me why don’t you ask the rest of the caucus (if he was that good there wouldn’t have been a contest), I am only judging what we see on TV and hear on the radio, but unfortunately for Labour that is what the voters judge him on!!
@Jo “Loved David Lange; great orator, very intelligent and extremely funny…..the only time I have voted Labour! “thanks for that…well now we know where you stand
…unfortunately David Lange’s Labour Governement also brought in closet ACT MPS with a NeoLib revolution in mind like Roger Douglas and Richard Prebble …this was disasterous for the Labour Party , causing a major split and it still has not recovered its Mana
you ask “why don’t you ask the rest of the caucus (about Cunliffe?)”…why should I ?….the rank and file now decide their leader together with caucus …and Cunliffe has their support!
…do you seriously think anyone one could have done better than Cunliffe….given the onslaught of Nactional Slater Whale OIL dirty tricks PR?….Cunliffe has always been the one they most feared and the one they wanted to put down at every opportunity ….just like you!
Cunliffe will win this Election with a Labour /Green /NZF coalition… and Internet Mana’s support !
Actually the one they feared was Jones and that is why Joyce went to so much trouble to find him a lovely new job.
So if Labour is in opposition again (with fewer MPs), will the Party members re-elect David Cunliffe if the caucus don’t support him, even though he has had a whole year as their leader to demonstrate that they were wrong not to vote for him last time?
What do you mean Lange was a disaster for Labour, I am pretty sure Helen Clarke would argue that she lead a very successful government!
Jo you are trying to rewrite history:
Jones was a “dogs dinner” when John Key and Nactional found their friend a new job….Cunliffe had already out- voted him for the leadership …Cunliffe was and is leader! ….REMEMBER
Lange’s govt was a disaster for Labour ….but Lange was out manouevered and led down the garden path…he eventually said “NO MORE”…and sacked Roger Douglas….and then he resigned himself
Lange did not lead the Neolib onslaught on New Zealanders …it was Douglas, Prebble, Bassett and few others … who Helen Clark and Jim Anderton opposed!
Oh dear Jo. You give yourself away:
1. Tertiary degrees eh? That’s your yardstick for intelligence? Well, I knew a lot of tertiary ‘degreed’ types during my working life who, while they may have swotted hard and managed to pass their exams, were often as thick as two short planks.
2. Despite the neo-liberal turn to the right, which Bolger couldn’t change anyway, he was actually a reasonable prime minister and he did have a sense of humour although probably too dry and subtle for you.
3. There was a democratic leadership contest in the Labour Party and that is why there was more than one candidate. David Cunliffe took a whopping 72% of the votes cast. But I doubt you would really know know what a democracy is if you fell over one.
In short, you’re political awareness and comprehension is extremely shallow. Not really worth responding to…
have to say i agree with you Anne
Come on, David Cunliffe is terrible – I mean he’s a preacher’s son that damns him as tedious, boring and he has that particularly nasty appendage – a conscience.
Now John Key on the other hand is much easier to get on with because he’s completely amoral – you just have to haggle over price. I also admire his selective amnesia – that’s a very engaging trait. But most of all he’s just an ordinary bloke working hard for his constituency.
His constituency may be overseas corporations and the mega-rich but they bring jobs, investment and riches through trickle-down.
Oh, yeah, and that climate change thing – we’re only a tiny per cent of bugger all as a country and we’ve got an ETS so we’re jake.
If that Hagar left-wing conspiracy theorist fulla hadn’t run that unjustified smear campaign we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.
If there is a whiff before the election that NZF might prop up a Labour government you will see the granny vote head for colin Craig.
I dont think their that silly….many came out of the Great Depression years as kids and know it was ‘laizze fairre’ economics that caused it. They also know that it was Labours adoption of Keynesian policies that remedied the situation
in New Zealand . Give them more credit.
NZF appeals to the so called old fashioned ideas of honesty, fairness and looking after your country, that’s why the grannies like him. Moon unit Craig doesn’t have that sort of appeal I’m afraid.
To speak of NZF and honesty in the same sentence is absurd.
This election is going to be a real eye opener.
I believe things will change, due to the mere fact that a staunch National supporter, I have worked with for over 15 years is, for the first time, NOT VOTING NATIONAL! Overheard his party vote has gone to UF. Probably just as bad, but obviously something has unsettled him.
I remember saying to him when Key got in 6 years ago, it would all end in tears, now he can’t look me in the eye.
I hope my hunch is good for a left win this time round.
Me too but last election there were plenty of voters saying they voted National but never again, yet Teflon John got a second term. All I can think is that somewhere in a dusty attic is a very ugly painting of JK that gets more grotesque every time the man opens his mouth, there is no logical explanation.
A party vote for UF is a wasted vote – it will make no difference to the final make-up of the parliament.
Effectively, a wasted vote gets apportioned to all the parties that cross the threshold. So, some yet to be known percentage will go to National, Labour, Green, NZF etc. If this voter is protesting against National then making a wasted vote is a very ineffective way of doing so.
‘If he (Key) opts for NZ First , he will be oblidged to anchor his government very firmly in the harbour of Mr Peters caring, paternalisitc and overtly interventionist ”one nation” conservatism.
And this ..as a second best scenario against Key , his asset sales program , the far right neo liberal elements in his cabinet would be at least a tactical move . Act and UF virtually have been muted , and the Conservatives will fill the extreme void that has been the province of ACT.
And eventually , become just as isolated and marginalised.
It would also give any Left opposition parties considerable leverage in debate.
However , I do not believe it will come to that ,…and the third to last paragraph seems very , very pertinent in this case. If…we have a Labour /Greens / NZ First govt , …in no way shape or form does it negate the influence of IMP….in fact , even in issues of confidence and supply…many of their policies will be lending wieght to govt direction.
There is far more commonality and stability among the Left now than on the Right. The very ‘stability’ catchcry this govt uses to intimidate voters to vote for them.
John says we will give you tax breaks David says we will give you capital gains tax. John says we will not exclude working with any one David says we will only have a coalition of 3 and we will not work with imp in a government. Why is David letting him off all the time on his dirty politics. David Not helping himself much
Dale – what a strange comment. So far John has only given tax breaks to those who didn’t need them at the expense of those who did. Now he is talking about tax breaks with a load of qualifications which mean there is probably no chance they will eventuate. However, if they do, they won’t cover the increased costs of the ‘privatised’ power bills, let alone anything else.
A coalition of three sounds better than the rag tag bunch of misfits with countering policy positions that Key will draw upon. Still if chem trails, incest, selling principles to sit at the table, no fools like old fools (Andrea Vance’s BFF) etc. floats you boat – go for it!
Unfortunately, several documents in my files – speeches made by Peters in the late 90s in his role as Treasurer – give me cause for concern as to how “progressive” Peters truly is.
The content of those speeches is not reassuring.
late 90s is how many years ago?…we are now 2014-15
…Peters has also changed his ideas on the Greens and Green policy…in fact they are very similar on NZ land, housing and assets for New Zealanders
….Peters has has also been one of the most strident and effective critics against John Key and Nactional….eg State Owned Assets sales, corruption and John Key’s surveillance
Can the Left do without Peters?
Yes, to quote Meturia Turei, Winston has “mellowed out”. Perhaps his grand kids have been nagging him to stop being a grumpy bastard.
LOOL!..dont worry..we all go through that 🙂
If Key is returned as PM once the current enquiries are finished and reported on, will they trigger a new election, if Key is found to be implicated in the dirty dealing?
Key is refusing to do an inquiry into any one but Judith Collins. He has refused to do any kind of inquiry into himself which he’s getting away with. The inquiry as it stands is ONLY into Judith Collins.
Peters has said he will not give any support of any kind to anyone who won’t agree to a wider inquiry.
I’m voting mana precisely to reduce the likelihood that Winston is who Labour + Greens choose as a coalition partner.
The polls amaze me, I am totally convinced that they are absolutely manipulated cods wallop. On Saturday in Whanganui I picked up the local rag who had run their own polls, (they claimed that they were “unscientific”). These showed similarity to the main polls six months ago but since then National had dropped over 10% on the “unscientific” Chronicle polls…and Labour was in the mid 30s. On their numbers Labour and the Greens would not need NZ First.
Very interesting, cant wait to confirm that the polling organisations are either incompetent or shills for the Right.
note Winston has also said he will not necessarily form a coalition with anyone if his bottom lines are not met
…so this will definitely rule out John Key’s Nactional ( unless they buy back State Assets and reverse just about all their disgusting policies)
….and it could mean that if Labour and the Greens can form a coalition without him and decide to do so ( which I doubt)…he would sit it out with Mana Internet on the benches and give Cunliffe’s Labour coalition support
Who knows about your Whanganui poll, maybe it’s accurate, but it is certainly true that most polls are virtually meaningless, when you consider that anyone a bit short on dosh gives up the landline and just keeps the mobile phone. So phone polling is hardly scientific.
Add to that the fact that the begrimed National Party is not going to pick up much of the undeclared or undecided.
The last couple of elections the Right vote was overstated by several points. This trend will only have accelerated over the past few years.
The point that must be made to voters is that despite those polls, it is still worth voting. The misleading reports can become a self fulfilling prophesy.
The DOT .COM. BOMB.
Chances for a Labour /Greens /NZ First coalition are improved if the dot.com.bomb hits the target mon Sept 15th and dents the NAT vote over the last week of the campaign .
1. IF the Nats shed more votes Winston will be the likely benefactor.(An alternative conservative vote which isn’t too left.)
2.Trotter is right .A Labour /Greens /NZ First is an easier sell to middle NZ ,swing voters ,without the radical left wing tag.
3.The worse the corruption of the Keys Govt , and the closer the corruption gets to Keys , the easier it will be for Winston to take a moral stance and back a center -left coalition with a fresh start mentality .
4. The Dot.com.bomb needs to drop the Nats from 52% back to around 46-47% , before the numbers start to work .But Matthew Hooton claims historically the Nats usually poll 5% under on the real election day .If hes correct then the dot.com.bomb only has to drop National another few percentage points and its all on.
Go the Dot.Com. Bomb !
@At Black Lemming – HEAR !!! HEAR !!! Im hoping for a total saturation bombing .
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