Why TV3’s new 3 News-Reid Research poll don’t mean jack




Can I just point out to progressives freaking about the latest 3 News-Reid Research poll tonight putting National at 46.4%.

It don’t mean jack shit.

In 2011 the same poll at the same time had National at 53%!  National ended up getting 47% – they dropped 6 points by election date.

What this poll actually means is National’s drop hasn’t happened yet, and if it reflects 2011 it suggests National will barely get over 41%. Under 45% and National can’t win, at 41% it’s all over rover.  I note that Paddy didn’t mention any of this.

Don’t believe the mainstream media hype. Vote today, these buggers are on the way out, let’s make sure the door hits them in the arse on the way out.


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  1. A really nice looking 16% for the Greens in the latest Roy Morgan. Lab-Green now almost matching the nasty right wing party. Take out the usual bias towards National and….

  2. Even if National were polling on 40% I’d say there are some serious issues with the fourth estate.
    Regardless of what happens in this election, I’d love to see @whaledump go after journalists next. Bloggers like whaleoil are a problem, but so are the MSM and those in charge of the news organisations.
    TV3 has gotten worse over time. Tova O’Brien and Brooke Sabin are developing into immature gotcha-obsessed entertainers. They’ll soon be at the same level as Gower – gutter level.
    Gower’s performance on Paul Henry’s show last night was not the work of a journalist with integrity. It is fine to have goof-balls like Paul Henry, but not at 6pm and the entertainers can’t be masquerading as journalists.
    When I watch Paddy, Tova and Brooke I wonder if whaleoil has something on them.

    • I think what we are seeing are some of the more experienced journos have the toughness to challenge their insiders in the Nats over the Dirty Politics http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11318024. Meanwhile the junior yinexperienced Sabin and O brien continue to suck up to their National Party insiders as if Dirty Politics didn’t exist. They both continue to attack Labour at every opportunity…and unfortunately it does play a part in why Labour aren’t picking up more voters…frustrating.

  3. I like the billboards that say the Greens will get 30% – & I think the Gaia reference will be lost on non-classically educated New Zealanders.

    It should be a landslide – but if the vote doesn’t adequately reflect public concerns Guy Fawkes will probably be unusually popular this year. Perhaps not among the self-styled ruling classes though.

  4. Even if National win this election the left just needs to keep deconstructing brand Key and the bastard will eventually fall. Remember that a large portion of the NZ population are easily manipulated, unthinking automatons who will swallow any political slogan if it comes with Key’s cheesy smile and the right background music. Breaking down how they perceive Key might take longer than the time left until the election. So if Key wins don’t be disheartened. Key is now mortally wounded; it may just take a bit of time for him to political die.

  5. Driving around my neighbourhood, I am seeing a lot of labour and Green Party billboards/signs in windows and on fences of people’s actual homes. Not a national one in sight.
    The national billboards in public areas all have graffiti or stickers on them. It makes me have hope that we are on track for a left win on the 20th.

  6. Loved your graphic which sums up part of ‘dirty politics’ ethos, blame the poor as scapegoats, when trickle-down fraudulent economics policy hasn’t worked.

    And Jamie Whyte tonight on Campbell Live said that ACT wanted lower taxes for companies so that more bullshit trickle-down economics will benefit the poor. It didn’t work with ACT infiltrating Labour in the 80’s and it sure as shit doesn’t work now….as 250,000 children in poverty will attest to. Nick Hanauer “Rich people don’t create jobs”, defies the trickle-down bullshit.


    The second tier of dirty politics is to attack the woman or man, not the argument with ‘left wing conspiracy’ or “I’ll burn your house down” , or ‘I’ll publish your address and get the Chinese mafia to visit your house and do unspeakable things to you and your family and your cat.’ It’s fascism, pure and simple and it has no place in NZ Politics.

    The third more worrying tier are the threats and undermining of public servants and Government departments. “All the financier’s men” article in the Sunday Times showed clearly the underhanded tactics used to influence and deter prosecution by the rich and powerful who had duped thousands of investors out of hundreds of millions of dollars. And no prosecutions FFS.

    This evil, scummy house of cards must be blown over by the winds of change and kiwis getting out and voting against corruption by the Tories. Sacking Collins is not a sign of strength by Key. It is a desperate attempt to ringfence corruption at the highest level and isolate and insulate himself from the cloying stench of corruption. Too late Mr Key, the horse, “Corruption” has bolted, New Zealand’s “Watergate” will make a great movie. Maybe James Cameron will direct it? Or Sir Peter Jackson? Before, during or after the movie has been screened, with any luck the PM will be sharing a cell with John Banks and Butch McDick.

    Blue, is the new black.

  7. Speaking of rats and sinking ships

    Very 1984. On the National Party website there is a black and white photo of all the smiling #Teamkey National Party ministers sitting the cabinet table. It now has a missing minister, photoshopped out.

    Collins has simply ceased to be!

    Fucking spooky!

  8. It is just more of the usual “polling”, being LANDLINE based, which is now not at all representative of the true voter preference situation, and only at best may show some “trends”.

    But the worry is, that most that watch the leading TV channels and listen to radio, they will be misled by this, thinking, it is all a foregone conclusion, and thus will not vote.

    That is of course also behind National’s strategy, and they love the pollsters, who tend to put them well ahead.

    So dear readers, do NOT listen to and do not accept these polls for any guidance, do cast YOUR OWN votes on 20 September, or earlier, if you can vote early now.

    I am waiting until 20 September, and I look forward to what Mr Dotcom has to tell us on 15 September. Also there may yet be some further revelations and surprises, so I do not want to vote before I can give all that consideration.

    But it will take something very major, to change my vote, as it is at present.

  9. Martyn’s always brilliant,

    The polls are not bad though, most are very uneasy about Dirty Government still throwing threatening behaiviour around.

    None of it was seen on the brilliant Climate Change debate tonight.

    It was a must watch/see.

    Martyn can you feed us a blog discussion of it and a link to the video?

  10. People keep saying how right wing voters always turn out while left wing voters just stayed at home in 2011 but I’m starting to wonder if a few National voters might decide to sit this one out because of the dirty politics. That sort of thing wouldn’t show up in the pills much I suspect.

  11. Frankly, after the last few weeks, the poll results tonight for National and especially for Key’s rating as preferred PM, well, simply they’re beyond belief.

    That none of this has raised doubts among even a handful of those polled is not possible. I’m not buying it.

    That Key, after the worst two weeks of his political career (I’m tempted to say any PM’s career) could rise in the preferred PM stakes by 3.7pc is a joke. It’s nonsense. Forget it, didn’t happen.

    As Martyn says, we were being spoon-fed the same BS at exactly the same time last election and by election day the Nats were 6 points worse off.

    Well, last election there was none of this mud flying round and sticking to Key. In light of that, I reckon they’ll shed a lot more than 6 points come this election day.

    On Friday I’m heading off to vote and play my part in kicking the Nats right up their fat wallet.

  12. Matthew Hooton stated this very point on one of the Political Panel’s on RNZ’s “Nine to Noon”. He said subtract around 5% from a poll and that is National’s true poll rating.

    No wonder the Nats are panicking with promises of tax cuts.

  13. The thing that gives me the shits is when the MSM report “Key up 3.5% as preferred PM” but does not point that he has dipped from 60% to 45 over last 6 months – the overall trend is his star is waning.

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