The biggest problem for John Key is that there are swathes of National Party voters who are educated and decent people whom will be forced to read Dirty Politics out of intellectual curiosity and will be horrified by what National have been up to.
Those people always vote, but this hate politics is a total turn off to their ethical standards. Where will they vote? As educated voters, it won’t be for Winston, but it will be for the Greens.
I think the Greens are on track for 15%. Their clever mix of policies which have targeted the soft urban liberal vote of the National Party rather than tack harder Left in a crowded political spectrum is giving them the ability to pull both sides of the political divide with them which gives the Greens unique prospects at the election.
Labour’s inability to rejuvenate this time around means they have a shallow talent pool when considering Cabinet positions, if the next Progressive Government is to succeed and live up to the promise of having the most progressive majority in NZs political history, then it must be a Green Cabinet. The Greens have some of the smartest MPs in Parliament and their brains trust will be required to do a lot of the heavy lifting if sustainability is going to mean anything.
Labour has every right to feel a tad cheated with their result, but the silver lining is the huge drop in support for Key as his brand is all that keeps National afloat. The real story of the Poll is the 13% undecided vote who will see more of Cunliffe vs Key framing on the mainstream media plus more Labour adverts and where they decide to place their vote will make all the difference.
My guess is after Dirty Politics it would be a very tone deaf voter who decided to place their vote with National.
I’m still not convinced NZ First will get over 5%.