Herald Poll – Why the Greens will hit 15%

By   /   August 22, 2014  /   33 Comments

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I think the Greens are on track for 15%. Their clever mix of policies which have targeted the soft urban liberal vote of the National Party rather than tack harder Left in a crowded political spectrum is giving them the ability to pull both sides of the political divide with them which gives the Greens unique prospects at the election.

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The biggest problem for John Key is that there are swathes of National Party voters who are educated and decent people whom will be forced to read Dirty Politics out of intellectual curiosity and will be horrified by what National have been up to.

Those people always vote, but this hate politics is a total turn off to their ethical standards. Where will they vote? As educated voters, it won’t be for Winston, but it will be for the Greens.

I think the Greens are on track for 15%. Their clever mix of policies which have targeted the soft urban liberal vote of the National Party rather than tack harder Left in a crowded political spectrum is giving them the ability to pull both sides of the political divide with them which gives the Greens unique prospects at the election.

Labour’s inability to rejuvenate this time around means they have a shallow talent pool when considering Cabinet positions, if the next Progressive Government is to succeed and live up to the promise of having the most progressive majority in NZs political history, then it must be a Green Cabinet. The Greens have some of the smartest MPs in Parliament and their brains trust will be required to do a lot of the heavy lifting if sustainability is going to mean anything.

Labour has every right to feel a tad cheated with their result, but the silver lining is the huge drop in support for Key as his brand is all that keeps National afloat. The real story of the Poll is the 13% undecided vote who will see more of Cunliffe vs Key framing on the mainstream media plus more Labour adverts and where they decide to place  their vote will make all the difference.

My guess is after Dirty Politics it would be a very tone deaf voter who decided to place their vote with National.

I’m still not convinced NZ First will get over 5%.

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33 Comments

  1. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    iPredict have the chances of National winning at 64%, significantly down from the 80% they have been sitting on all year. While the punters still don’t give the outcome a 50-50 chance, the chart shows a trend that, if it continues, must be terrifying for National.
    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2014.NATIONAL

  2. Stuart Munro says:

    I’m picking 16% for the Greens this time. It’s nice to see Labour are beginning to work like a real team, including fine work from Goff. The great thing about Dirty Politics for Labour is that it gives Cunliffe a public interest cause to play his natural part, which is to be a straight man. Only half of his prior troubles were media bias, and with National’s back channel constricted the image the public are seeing is now much more real.

    NZ First are difficult to call, but protesting Gnats who find Greens unpalatable will probably go to Winston, and there is certainly plenty for them to protest about.

    But it is to the purple legion we must look for the next dramatic outflanking as their IMPis prepare to rout the effete and disordered Gnat forces as thoroughly as Cetshwayo humiliated the English at Isandlwana.

    Best tactic for the left – bring Tilicam back from Israel.

    • Guy Smiley says:

      16% for the Greens, the only way they can get 15%+ is if there is another Rena type environmental disaster.

      The TeMana vote is going to hurt them. If they get 2- 2.5%, you know that is coming from the Greens.

      • Stuart Munro says:

        The Greens are consistently more professional than any other party in Parliament. They don’t have public spats or fratricidal quarrels like Collins with Joyce, Hipkins with Dotcom, or Whyte with reality.

        The tribalism of NZ voters is declining as National sells out its traditional supporters for foreign investors and Labour falls short of the expectations of the moderate left by omitting to present alternatives on the scale of reversing the asset thefts and declining the TPPA.

        Pertinent to this poll is the Green response to Dirty politics. They forwarded the matter to the proper officials. They don’t need to sell any propositions, only wait for the wheels to fall off Key’s troika. Key and free willy have outdone themselves – but there are no Green barbs in them. All the Gnats’ worst wounds are self inflicted.

        “The highest function of ecology is understanding consequences.” – Pardot Kynes

  3. b waghorn says:

    The greens method of laying complaints about dirty politics then not saying to much about it has been clever, people are getting tired of it and for reasons I don’t understand it seems to be damageing labour .

  4. Thomas Kaminski says:

    I fear this is wishful thinking as most of those defecting National will vote for NZ First rather than any left-leaning party. I can only keep reminding left-leaning voters to remember 1996. If you don’t remember or are too young: PLEASE read it up. It looks like its all happening again…

  5. jh says:

    The Greens are pro immigration and population is for tomorrow.
    If the news media aired immigration matters evenly the Greens would be shown up somewhat.

    What’s more the media go light on the greens funny stuff (as Chris Trotter pointed out) .

    • Michal says:

      What are you talking about they are not pro open immigration to everyone and anyone and are not interested in allowing people to settle if they have $10m like other parties.

  6. Walter McIntosh says:

    I see the Green Party making a big surge , mostly at the expense of Labour . Would not be surprised to see a total of 18% The two leaders of the Greens have talked more common sense than most . And everyone knows that a priority of clean lakes and rivers is needed for New Zealand’s health .

  7. fambo says:

    A big danger for Labour/the Greens is if enough disaffected National vote goes to NZ First for it to get over five percent and then it decides to form a coalition with National which is its more natural partner

    • mary_a says:

      @Fambo – prior to Nicky Hager’s book exposing the toxic activities of this FJK led government, I would have said yes, Winston would quite happily go with the Natsies, post election.

      However, now I very much doubt Winston and NZ First would want to be tainted and stained by FJK and his rancid mob of crooks, preferring instead to join a coalition with Labour, the Greens and the IMP, to form a government.

      Even for Winston, the Natsy alternative is too unpalatable now!

    • Dennis Dorney says:

      Then surely the smart move is for the Greens/Labour to predict that NZ First will support National. If the voters thought that National would be put back in by NZ First they will poll less than 5% and waste votes. Who wants that?
      In anycase,since Winston is always taking the moral high ground, what justification could he have for siding with such a corrupt party as National?

  8. Mistery Mistery says:

    I think anyone who votes National at this election, must seriously question their heart.

    When that voting paper is in front of them, they must surely make themselves stop, and have a rethink. Do you love with all your heart the NZ that surrounds you today, or do you not like it at all. If you don’t like what you see today, then don’t vote National, because it will only get worse.

    Stop thinking with dollar signs in your eyes, and start using the other half of your brain. Make it a ‘novel’ and positive moment in your life, and for the future of NZers in NZ! Vote something different. Vote for a change of heart.

    DO NOT VOTE NATIONAL!!!
    HELP SAVE NZ!!

    Opinion.

  9. Ray says:

    The latest Herald Digipoll is appalling. Getting away from the fact that a blind person in a vat of mollases should be able to see through Key’s Orwellian tactics, this is a government that’s been a disaster for the environment, a disaster for our democracy, a disaster for our sovereignty, a disaster for our freedom, and yet they are still registering 50% of declared voters! Key is still preferred PM by 65% of respondents! Whilst I believe that both of those polls are overstating support they still send shudders down my spine. And make no mistake, as this election draws on National are going to go into full fear mongering mode. I only hope I’m worrying too much but looking at the levels of almost sycophantic support for Key in the reader comments in Fairfax Media – I do worry.

    • XRAY says:

      Years and years of ground work and industrial grade manure have gone into the John Key image culminating in the John Roughan romance novel/biography, so it’s no surprise.

      However all his trip ups with the truth over the last 6 years have not gone unnoticed either. I believe that Key is also detested by many and he has become a very polarising figure nowadays as opposed to being tolerated.

      Similarly Nationals ground work on any opposition such as the smear campaigns on David Cunliffe have left a lingering effect. Time will tell in the next month if this does real damage to Labour.

    • Mistery Mistery says:

      @Ray:

      “…and yet they are still registering 50% of declared voters!”

      This is not true Roy. The polls never poll the entire voting population – just the few select people they ask.

      Election day will show the true poll result! Anything else is merely manufactured numbers and projections by design.

      Opinion.

  10. reason says:

    Forget the poll ………. its bullshit and designed to put people off from voting.

    If John Key does not resign before the election he will straight after when he has lost it for the Nats.

    He’s gotten far to close to the ‘fun’ of wrecking peoples lives, abusing the dead and wishing harm to opponents that his pal cam slater engages in.

    I predict every body will be calling Key Johnny two face shortly 😉

    • The polls are not (deliberately) bullshit. The biggest flaw in them is basically that they remove undecideds or people who won’t say from their presentation of data. They should really be showing data with the undecideds in as well as with them out, so that we can see how big a potential swing would be, and also so that we can tell if shifts are genuinely from one party to another, or if some of the parties are attracting new voters.

      Other than that, the polls are reasonably sound to establish a trend with, (we shouldn’t get too hung up with individual polls, rather what they say as a group) with the small complaint that they tilt National a bit due to largely being conducted by landline.

  11. reason says:

    The Greens have far higher standards of ethics, morals and democracy than the other two main parties, thats why I’ve always voted for them.

    And its common bloody sense that no environment equals no economy so its best to look after the environment instead of trashing it.

    Also the disrespect for parliament and by extension the citizens in our country by the nats in particular has always been bad.

    But Key, Collins & Co have turned the place into a snake pit.

    Time to vote them out and clean the place up.

  12. James George says:

    There are a couple of types of National voters out of reach: 1) those psychologically wedded to John Key’s aspirational schtick, with a desperate need to believe ‘he’s a good bugger, he’d have a beer with me’ as part of their own identity. If their trust in that cracks, then their identity (as one day achieving some modicum of Key’s success) cracks with it. They’ll defend Key (because they’re defending their fantasy aspiration) to the last. Type 2) are those who have been so vehement in saying ‘I’m not going to read the book, Hagar is a trouble maker.’ They’re ostriches really, and often lifelong believers, and have this quite bizarre (from the outside) dichotomy of wanting polite politicians even if it means being polite and affable in public while running havoc in private.
    I agree that Winston can’t be trusted, the ultimate opportunist. His middle name should be ‘leverage.’ The anti-National forces can’t safely factor NZ First into their post-election thinking. There are enough narratives toxic to National and their brand as honest straight-shooters floating around at the moment it’d be wise for Labour and the Greens to play it straight from here. Promote themselves as builders. If there’s one humorous thread to all this, it’s National’s reliance on being being devious in the margins, has seen those margins bite them back. Big time. The rest is still up in the air, and won’t settle yet. The floating voters and the young voters, will be the making/breaking from here.

  13. steve says:

    National leaning voters unhappy with the sleaze will move to the Conservatives. This is now showing up in the polls. For anyone concerned about dirty politics Winston is the last option.

    • Dennis Dorney says:

      But NZ First and the Conservatives are competing for thye same, essentially racist agenda and will eliminate each other, so there will be a large wasted vote of potential Nat supporters. Thats bad news for National.

  14. Marc says:

    A very disappointing poll result for the left – suggesting that ‘Dirty Politics’ hasn’t made much of a general impression on folks. If anything, the long-term trend is for labour to continue to slide, Cunliffe just isn’t resonating with folks at all.

    Winston Peters has always been a national man, and he’s said he won’t work with Internet-Mana. I think NZFirst will go with National, so if NZFirst wins seats, the election is lost for the left.

    The left need a strong showing from the Greens and Internet-Mana to win this. The Greens need to get a lift and Internet-Mana needs the youth vote to come through. Not out of the question, but still a tough ask.

    • Dennis Dorney says:

      I have suggested earlier that if NZ First looks like supporting the Nats, NZ First will lose votes. On the day they will bomb out.

    • Mistery Mistery says:

      Either the Greens need to win, or Labour needs to win. It’s no good having 30% Greens seats and 30% Labour seats, if the Nats get the other 40%.
      We must get a new left leader.
      At the moment it feels as if the left will lose because of the division of votes between Labour and Greens – dropping off Labour and Nats, and going onto the Greens.

      So here’s a thought: Greens and Labour form a coalition, with Metiria Turei as Leader, and Russel Norman and David Cunliffe as co-deputy leaders.
      That’d be about right (or rather left).

      Opinion.

  15. Snowdrop says:

    After sitting through a local ‘minor parties’ candidates meeting (hosted by Grey Power) Tuesday this week, and watching the grey heads (male & female) nodding and clapping enthusiastically when the Conservative chap spoke I wonder if that’s not where the right wing are headed. There was no NZ First person or National on the podium though, so I couldn’t compare reactions.
    Interestingly the Greens weren’t there either as this Grey Power branch have included the Greens in the ‘three main parties’ candidates meeting on another day.

  16. Kim Dandy says:

    Shhhhhhh, we don’t want to mention IMP at all, do we media, unless its all bad.
    IMP is going to get all those who did not vote at the last election.
    And that was a lot of voters….

  17. Z says:

    If we had an environmental disaster (on a scale of the Rena) then perhaps the Greens may scrape 15%. Otherwise it is wishful thinking.

    The majority of National voters are happy with the way NZ is being run so are unlikely to change this opinion regardless of exactly how they managed to get things done.

    Best chance of a change lies with the non voters. Through them this election may be revolutionary.

  18. Cagey says:

    Re Labour polling – I think they may be suffering from the “everyone does it” line that’s being fed through by the ‘usual suspect’ in the Meanstream Mania (I heard Bleightont Smith suggest Labour’s Vote Positive is based on prior knowlege). Because of the odd way that ‘people who aren’t interested in politics’ think and get their information, the Greens are avoiding this backwash. It’s going to be slow-flow sinking into these people’s consiousness but it is statistically interesting how much David Cunliffe has gone up as prefered PM.

  19. Guy Smiley says:

    Come on now Martyn, you know perfectly well the Greens wont get
    anywhere near 15%. Fair enough your trying to energize your base.

    How about being honest with your base though? The greens will get around 10-12% this election. Hagers book wont change any voters minds, but it may make people who weren’t going to vote in this election, go out and vote.

  20. Mike the Savage One says:

    Actually, the Greens have always had the potential to break the 15 percent threshold, without of what goes on now. As for the “polls” it is more like “pulling legs” I think.

    Do not trust the polls, they are not reliable, and even Winston proved it big last time. I put the Greens at between 13 and 16 percent this election, NZ First at 7 or 8 percent, and Internet Mana possibly hitting 4 to 5 percent, although I had my doubts before.

    This election will be one for the small parties, and even the Conservatives may reach 4 percent, but NOT make the 5 percent hurdle, and we will have a government totally depending on small party support, yet again.

    Key is losing big, wait for the coming polls, they may still get the most votes, but well below 47 or even below 45 percent, while ACT and United will be insignificant, and Maori Party may survive with only one Maori electorate win. That will NOT get National into government, for sure.


 
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