iPredict had the closest final result of all the opinion polls last election, and currently they are predicting 5 MPs for Internet MANA.
I think iPredict are far too low with Labour and I would be buying up to 32% right now. I would be buying Green up to 13% and I would be buying Internet MANA up to 4%.
National’s 44% sounds about right.
Despite what the mainstream media are telling you, the 2014 election will be razor close.
Sounds about right. My own guess, from a recent blogpost,
National: 44% – 53 seats
Labour: 33% – 40 seats
Greens: 13% – 16 seats
NZ First: 5% – 6 seats
Mana Movement: 4 seats
Maori Party: 1 seat
ACT: 1 seat
Dunne: nil – seat loss
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/08/03/latest-roy-morgan-poll-the-game-has-turned/
I may have to amend that with a guess that Seymour has a less than 50/50 chance of seizing Epsom if Labour and Green voters understand what is required of them.
What was that Bomber? Markets are good at things!? Hold the phone!
You of course will know I hosted the iPredict Election show last election right?
Goodness I didn’t actually! #pieface
I am a big fan of both iPredict and your skills as a presenter, so I’m glad to hear they exist joined-up together. Will have a watch.
Do me a favour and answer me one thing though, if markets are good at harnessing the wisdom of crowds for things like poll results, why are they not good at doing so for other things, setting wages for instance?
The difference between market driven opinion polling research and market driven minimum wage are as obvious as you not being aware that I hosted the iPredict election series and that we predicted the election closer than any other news agency.
What is the arrangement for TV coverage of the ipredict data before the elections? Will it run the week before?
Hi Martyn – I noticed that Internet Mana is coming to Masterton next Monday 18 August. It’s in the Frank Cody Lounge in Masterton Town Hall which only takes around 100 people. I’m wondering if that might end up being a bit small. To give some comparisons, it was filled up when you held the Save TV7 meeting there, and when Russel Norman spoke there a couple of years ago. I suspect there may be even more interest in this meeting. I’m hoping to go and I’m not even voting IMP. (but then again, too small may be better than too big). If there’s time, I suggest IMP takes the bus for a circuit of the Cameron Block on the East Side in the afternoon, and maybe do a bit of door knocking and maybe do a walk along Queen Street in the CBD. You may be surprised with the amount interest you get.
I’d take the ipredict election figures with a grain of salt, and I say that as an experienced ipredict trader. It’s common for political stocks to “spike” or “trough” when party operatives move in. Nobody has the funds to take advantage of every opportunity that comes up in the trading of the Epsom electorate or the number of Conservative Party seats, for example.
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