Now Conservative Party has been killed off, is a vote for NZ First a vote for the National Party?

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e1alw9Are Winston and John Key new Best Friends Forever?

 

Colin Craig and his Conservative Party have been cleverly played and tricked and trapped by National. Whatever promises and flirtations Key made with Craig last year have eventuated into nothing. National’s internal polling shows that Colin Craig and his flakey weird religious conservatism will see urban voters run screaming from National and the risk is simply too great.

The NZ Herald might want to believe Colin Craig and his religious band of followers will pierce the 5% threshold but there is simply no chance of that now Colin has been locked out of East Coast Bays, the reason Internet MANA has momentum is because voters know a Party vote for them isn’t wasted with Hone winning TTT, Conservative voters have no such guarantee and won’t gain any further momentum, all they can do now is damage NZ First’s vote.

So the question now becomes, is a vote for NZ First a vote for National? Previously there was the possibility of Greens and Labour working with NZ First by giving Winston a legacy project like a universal super fund that buys back NZs state assets. That scenario could have worked, however the rise of Internet MANA will be too frightening to Winston and the quiet chats between National and NZ First have been occurring to ensure that doesn’t happen.

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Matthew Hooton has been telling audiences in private meetings that the next Government will be NZ First and National, which suggests to me that discussions between the two of them are far further down the track than publicly acknowledged.

Curwen Rolinson argues NZ First will make it past the 5%, the question becomes who will Winston back?

Winston could sit on the cross benches, but I doubt he, Key or the voting public have much patience for that.

Best case scenario for progressives is that Colin Craig damages NZ First vote enough to keep them under 5% while also imploding his own Conservative Party vote, worst case scenario for progressives is NZ First either props up National and keeps Key in power or Winston props up Labour and keeps the Greens and Internet MANA out of power.

4 COMMENTS

  1. A vote for NZ First has always been a vote for conservatism and reaction,
    but equivalent to a vote for National in 2014? Probably. Because at the end of the day deep down Winston hates Greens and IMP even more than how Key rubbed in his nose in it two elections ago.

    The fact that some NZ1 policy e.g. on asset sales, is acceptable to many of those on the parliamentary left shows how right the National party has become.

    In what is likely Winston’s last hurrah the best outcome for the left would be for Colon and NZ1 to both do well but not well enough to get 5%.

    If Winston gets over 5% it is all on for a few weeks, but his name would be purple mud for a second and final time if he did try and sideline a surging Green Party in a possible Labour led government. Internet Mana would like cabinet recognition if they get two or more MPs which looks increasingly likely.

    But, Mana Movement in Auckland branches at least is not enthusiastic about going into government with anyone, so in practice Laila would probably be it.

  2. NZF has policies too unpalatable for a third term National Government. Winston’s first choice is Labour & the Greens, Labour need to get their party vote up inorder for that to happen.

    National were scared off by Peters standing without fielding Murray and putting him on the list only. Key wanted rid of Muza who still wields influence within party circles. The risk of giving Winston a license to lambast the Nats and their cosy deals was too much.

    Key is trying to wipe NZF out by offering a false olive branch. He wants to keep NZF out by this tactic.

  3. Well I reckon Key is trying to herd the older vote into one paddock, and sees Winston as more likely to pick up more vote than Colin Craig.
    I too, do not see Winston going with the left, in fact, I am sure that his perfect choice is to remain on the cross benches, HOWEVER, and it is a big however, this must be his last go round, and I wouldn’t mind betting he would like to go out with some important position on the end of his CV. It won’t matter overly to him, personally, that any coalition for NZ First does seem to be overly helpful for them

  4. Winston likes to keep everyone guessing, he has always been like that. Remember how in 1996 he held the country to ransom for a few weeks while he waited to see whether Labour or National would dangle the fattest carrot in front of him. The only one that knows how Winston will go is Winston himself, probably the rest of his party don’t even know. A vote for Winston may be a vote for National, Labour, or nobody. You won’t know till afterwards.

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