“Let me baptise you”
Is this sexy Colin Craig is it? I haven’t laughed and cried so much in my life.
Unhinged never looked so likely.
The real problem about Colin Craig is perfectly summed up in this odd slightly psychotic photo. The suspicion that beneath the weird facade is an even weirder facade is difficult to shake. Before we even bother to look at the political freak show cavalcade he brings in on his coat tails, how electable is Colin Craig really?
How much of this is smoke and mirror PR management to boost Colin’s profile in the vain hope that National have a viable plan B if the election gets as tight as it is looking to be? How naked is this pasty Emperor because if you stare hard at Rodney and East Coast Bays, it’s going to take a miracle.
Vernon Small and Josh Fagan have done a very thorough job of testing how strong Colin really is and it looks a hell of a lot like hype.
Let’s look how weak Colin’s hand really is.
Murray McCully: Will be thrown out of East Coast Bays with a crow bar. McCully knows the power of an electorate seat in an affluent north shore suburb, and knows if he hands it over everyone within National that he has kneecapped during his reign of terror will re-emerge and drag him down to hell. Handing East Coast Bays over to Colin might be good for the National Party, but terrible for the dark Prince, and if there’s one thing Muzza has always been spectacularly good at doing for many many decades now is look after Murray.
Mark Mitchell: National structure their electorate seats with this odd and needless thing called a spine. The LEC (Labour Electorate Committee’s) respond to the Mother Ship with all the leniency of Borg on assimilation day. The National Party electorate committees however operate with far more independence. Convincing Muzza to step aside for the good of the Party as one of the Party elders is one thing, trying to move a good ole boy confederate like Mark Mitchell to go willingly would require a small army to succeed.
East Coast Bays: Let’s do the math. Muzza got 21,094 votes last election, the drip they threw in for the Conservative Party got a mere 1614. Even if Muzza removes himself from the race, there is no guarantee that National voters would vote for Colin Craig in enough numbers to defeat the Labour candidate.
Rodney: Better math for Colin. Mark got 20,253 votes last election where as Colin gained 12,222 votes. You see immediately how much more likely Rodney is as the electorate that has to go Colin Craig, problem is Mark will fight to stay in the race.
Wider National Party vote: Here’s the real dilemma. There is a large chunk of soft blue vote that would balk at the idea of Colin Craig as Minister for Science and Women’s Affairs and will walk over any closer relationship with Colin Craig, the added problem to that is the moment it does look like Colin has a secure entry line into Parliament, that could open the floodgates for all those angry white rural voters who feel Key is too Labour-lite to angrily go storming over to Colin. So National could lose its soft blue vote and its angry blue vote in the same move.
The case against Colin Craig is pretty damning but the fact he is needing to be contemplated shows just how weak National really are.