Will National stand down Mark Mitchell in Rodney, Paul Goldsmith in Epsom and Brett Hudson in Ohariu?

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While the msm flawed landline opinion polls are predicting Key will romp home with an over 50% tsunami landslide win, the reality is that National are in real trouble getting a majority on election night.

The reason this may be news to some is because of our poor political journalism – we have MMP politics and a First Past the Post Press Gallery. The need to suddenly find mates for Key to generate a majority with is leading to murmurs within National to adopt Matthew Hooton’s latests plan of evil, and that is to not stand Mark Mitchell in Rodney, Paul Goldsmith in Epsom or Brett Hudson in Ohariu to give Colin Craig, David Seymour and Peter Dunne free run in the seat to secure electorate wins to ensure coalition partners to generate the Parliamentary majority.

That would give Key a coalition consisting of ACT. Conservative Party and United Future. If Jamie Whyte, Colin Craig and John Key making up the front bench of the next Government doesn’t motivate you to get involved, nothing will.

Sure National will lose female and urban voters with an education in droves, but Key can afford that if the Conservative Party coat tail in 3% and ACT coat tail in 1.2%

The reason why it’s most likely National will sacrifice Mark Mitchell in Rodney for Colin is because Murray McCully simply has too much power within Caucus to allow his seat to get manipulated in this manner. If it turns out East Coast Bays is the seat Key gifts Colin, then it will signal a total collapse of McCully’s power.

Gifting the seats will be far different than the nudge and wink so mocked in Epsom, it will save Key from having to embarrass himself by stooping to such public tactics while securing a National win.

How much does Key want to win? Enough to throw Mark Mitchell, Paul Goldsmith and nobody Brett Hudson under a bus.

29 COMMENTS

  1. Great article, but do you seriously think ACT will get 1.2% of the vote (or enough to get a second MP) ?
    They’d be better off getting JW to stand in Epsom (and drop that muppet DS), assuming that could be ‘arranged’.
    p.s. When is the closing date for candidates to put their name forward for/in an electorate?

  2. Been waiting for Mr Gowers cries of outrage for these horrific crimes against fair play? I mean he was pretty quick to condemn IP/Mana wasn’t he. He may also like to point out how much of Craigs personal wealth is going into the Conservative party? C’mon Paddy, we are waiting for your comments/diatribe.

  3. How much does Labour want to win? Enough to get into bed with the Greens and Mana. Don’t you see that they are way more extreme than the Conservatives and Act?

      • Good thing is that most of the population sees them as complete nutjobs – which drives more of the center vote to National and King Key.

        Three more years baby!!

    • Three decades of economic abuse, whereby meaning enrichment of the few at the expense of the many , creation of the working poor class, loss of sovereignty through stealth ie: selling off of strategic state owned assets (who our grandparents worked and paid taxes for to ensure a self sufficient infrastructure ) – by successive Governments who rammed these things through without a popular mandate to do so, declining rural population base , an obligatory pool of high unemployment to help keep wages low, passage of unpopular acts such as the Employment Relations Act ( to remove collective bargaining and ensure union power was broken) the casualisation of labor…..and that is only a small representation of what has occurred in our society…..

      Seems like you couldn’t get a lot more radical than that mate…so maybe Internet Mana and the greens are not so radical after all when one takes a second, closer look..

  4. If Key wants to remain PM after 20 Sep he’d be better off throwing McCully under the bus. I agree with your analysis though: the three light-weights will be sacrificed to buy coalition support for the Nats. I think ACT could well poll over 1.2 percent – that’s only 0.2 more than the one percenters who own it anyway. As for the fundamentalist bigots, there’s lots of supporters foaming at the mouth waiting to vote for them.

    • McCully could end up as a cell mate of John Banks for creating a fishy, stinky job for his Tory bro-mate Shane Jones for “services rendered”. Another corrupt NACT polly to throw under the tea-bagging bus.

      So, best to let McCully go before he has to commit Western Democratic Hari-Kari and resign his posts once he is convicred of employment fraud.

      At least Colin’s an honest homophobic, misogynistic muppet and has a little bit more hair than Murray. Hair is important in a Tory politician — just ask Boris Johnson’s father.

  5. It is just like a scene from the TV show “Deal or No Deal”. Mitchell today said “No Deal” as reported on Stuff.co.nz. Next we will have the Banker (Craig) ringing up offering more until the price is right. That sums up the greedy right for you – New Zealand’s electorate seats are just another commodity that we can buy and sell. They are treating the voters of Rodney and Epsom with an arrogant contempt. Hope these voters wake up to it before the election and kick National, ACT and the Conservatives right up their blue a…s

    • Nope. We want a National government and are happy to vote strategically to get it.

      It’s called MMP.

      Perhaps the left should wise up in TTT too?

  6. Your on to it Bomber – and while this happen surely labour won’t sit on their hands and let the election drift by

    • Will Labour stand down Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau, or are they prepared to risk throwing the election away?

  7. IMO if Dishonest John starts standing candidates down he will lose the election.

    Short of Herculean onslaught of spin from MSM the public simply won’t buy it. I’ll be the final straw of perceived gerrymandering, and NAct will bear responsibility for making it possible by refusing to implement electoral commission recommendations.

    • Richard can you confirm that Labour will not form a Govt. with the support of any party who is elected on coat-tailing (e.g. IMP)? No, you can’t, because Cunliffe hasn’t ruled it out. And are you labelling Helen Clark dishonest because she accomodated the Greens in Coromandel and New Labour/Alliance in Sydenham?

  8. I cringe when i think of the possibility of labour and or the greens helping to get act or dunne back in in ohariu and epsom. so they stand by their principles and stand in the seats, which looses the election for the left. Their principles will not be of any use to people on struggle street who need relief.

    There needs to be a message from green and labour that, as a left win this year is critical for all of us, they will stand down julie ann or gareth or the labour guy in ohariu and epsom. sort it out labour and greens, don’t lose the election for all of us.

  9. “Matthew Hooton’s latests plan of evil” – leave the kid alone; he’s just playing with his pawns.

    • With something, but it isn’t prawns.

      Although if this plan gains momentum, the left will have to have a Plan B for National pulling candidates.

      This plan smells of McCully, the fishy manipulator of the Shane Jones sinecure.

  10. For those (on the right) who’s intellect is lacking (or conveniently parked for the moment) I need to point out that there is a HUGE difference, between helping the Greens win a seat in the Coromandel, when their vote was hovering around 5% and helping out a ‘one off character’ party with less than 1% of the vote, i.e. Dunne and Banks.
    Comparing the two, calls into question the mental state of those that use the argument with any seriousness or out of context.

  11. […] Hooton’s recommendation is the same one I suggested National were considering this week which is to pull National candidates at the last moment and leave the 3 seats free for National’s coalition partners ACT, Conservative Party and United Future to win. The mainstream media mouthpieces are already touting such an arrangement as ‘cleaner’ for MMP (Tova O’Brien was describing it as such on TV3 this week ), so the corporate media will certainly start selling such gerrymandering as better than the current nudge and wink cup of tea. Personally, I think removing the candidate altogether is far worse.  With the nudge and wink, the Party are still leaving it up to the voter to choose if they want to follow that strategy or not, by removing the option altogether the Party are saying, ‘screw the voters, you’ll do what we want regardless of your choice’. […]

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