Why the Greens will hit 15% and won’t form an alliance with National

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Metiria_Turei_and_Russel_Norman

How to raid into National’s soft green-blue underbelly without creating a backlash amongst their core supporters has always been the challenge for the Greens in an electoral market now too crowded on the Left by Internet MANA.

It was a challenge I never thought they could pull off. I even compared such hunts on par with tracking Yeti and Lock Ness Besties, but the Greens over the last 2 weeks have unveiled policy that make deep runs within National territory while earning standing ovations from their core base.

It is astoundingly shrewd tactics that haven’t been appreciated above the roar of the Internet MANA Drum n Bass block party.

The Carbon Tax cut is genius because it targets the soft National vote so perfectly. Everyone who has the economic literacy to own a heat pump all sat up and listened to the mechanics of what was being proposed and saw its intelligent design and clicked the ‘Add to my Cart’ button with all the mercenary efficiency of upgrading an app.

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The Greens followed this up with a bold announcement on making Abortion legal. It’s a staunch stance that has real pull to progressive women and goes beyond political affiliation. I think it’s bold enough to truly appeal to young female voters inside National.

This policy pitching isn’t seen by any of the core supporters as selling out, in fact the opposite. The Carbon Tax puts some credibility to pricing in the environmental cost of carbon which is core Green policy and it stands staunchly for human rights, which again are significant values for core voters.

The Greens are far more pro market than many seem to get. For the Greens the problem isn’t the market, the problem is that pollution costs haven’t been factored into the market. Once those pollution costs are factored in, then the market dynamics of capitalism will do the rest. That kind of ethical capitalism has fans amongst National voters.

While the Greens out of frustration have in the past flirted with supporting a National led Government, I think I have more chance of personally forming a coalition with John Key than they do post this election.

It’s a win, win, win, win situation. The Greens stop cannibalising the  Left, open vast new previously unattainable supporters from National and progressives beat Key at the election.

The Greens are terribly clever and worthy of Cabinet.

22 COMMENTS

  1. What a difference three years makes Martyn. Before the last elction you were touting the Greens as sellouts to National. Glad were all on the same side this time..

    • Didn’t Russell Norman put a cheap shot in on the MANA Party just before the last election? In 2011 Norman said “I mean, who wants to relive the battles of the 1980s and 1990s?.. I just don’t think a lot of people are really hanging out for a Hone Harawira, Sue Bradford, John Minto, Annette Sykes kind of party”

      Guess who wants to relive the battles of the 80s and 90s? – Everyone on the left who understands neoliberalism, that’s who.
      There’s some respect for Norman now that he’s stopped slinging mud around like an old Labour hack.

      • I think that was an unwise thing for the leader of the Greens to have said at that time, in retrospect. However , that was before recent developments with the merger of the Internet Mana part and the appointment of Laila Harre.

        Of paramount importance is the presentation now of a unified political front on the Left…it is crucial that co-operation (and to be seen as co operating publicly) , and dialogue to avoid and minimize any disruption to the common goal of toppling the neo liberals from power is achieved.

        This may also necessitate extricating the remaining neo liberals from within Labour as well – these elements have a disproportionate power base within that party. They need to be seen for what they are – fifth columnists for the far right neo liberals , nothing more , nothing less.

  2. The Greens are excellent: principled, informed, forward-looking and humane. In Game of Thrones terms they are House Tyrell…

  3. A Carbon Tax is political suicide – just ask Julia Gillard.

    And the abortion position is a non-issue as it doesn’t change what actually happens in our society, it merely puts it into law.

    Neither policy will materially impact on Nationals vote and the Greens will not make 15% come September 20.

    • Agreed. There is no way anyone on the right is stupid enough to buy into a carbon tax. That virtually cost Gillard & Rudd the election.

    • Seeing as you’re a bloke I don’t think you’ve really thought that one through Matthew.

      (I’ll assume your handle represents your gender)

      The abortion law is actually quite a big issue for many women when and if they need to access abortion. If you live rurally you’ve a big problem. Travel time, lack of access to two medical experts approved to make abortion decisions and general lack of access to medical procedures.

      And then there’s the stigma that you’re trying to get around a criminal act… rather than trying to access a medical procedure that both you and your doctor agree is necessary…

      Not cool. It delays the procedure sometimes for weeks, and it increases the expense. Seriously not cool.

      At the end of the day its a medical procedure between a pregnant person and their doctor. No one else should be nor needs to be involved. It should not be a crime. And this is the simple change the Greens wish to make, and good on them. They’ve got my vote for that one for sure.

      • Good guess regarding my gender.

        I’m perplexed at your use of a rural women. Changing a law in a parliament (that isn’t enforced) in Wellington will not increase the volume of rural medical practices. Nor is it likely to lead to an explosion of abortion services.

        The stigma of trying to get around a criminal act? The criminal act is not enforced and I doubt if many New Zealanders knew that abortion was criminalised in NZ. I didn’t. The stigma of getting an abortion has nothing to do with non-enforced criminality.

        • I’ve been aware of how our abortion law works for much of my life, because I’m a person who could possibly get pregnant and need one. For people with uteri in NZ I think this is probably pretty common.

          I’ve had to contemplate needing an abortion a few times, and each time I’ve been aware of how I would need to present myself as mentally ill in order to end an unwanted pregnancy. Its daunting, unnecessary and adds an extra layer of bull***t.

          Currently abortion requires two registered doctors to approve it. Removing it from the crimes act and making it a private issue between a pregnant person and their doctor would mean only one doctor is required, and so rural women would have easier access.

          Being able to be honest with a doctor about circumstances and reasons for needing an abortion would be a huge relief to many pregnant people. Cutting the bull***t criminal aspect would do this. It may make no difference to you from your point of view, but again, thats probably because you’ve never had to contemplate needing an abortion, you’ve never really put yourself in that situation.

  4. You dont do woman credit,ive voted MANA in the past elections and women are not just going to vote green for one policy.thats a very sexist assumption

    • I’m a woman (last time I looked anyway).

      I was planning on voting Green before, but dithering about maybe voting Mana.

      Now I’m absolutely certain. I’ll vote Green. And it’s because of their stance on abortion. There’s no way it should be under the crimes act. It should be left as a decision between a pregnant person and their doctor. No one else need be involved.

      I’m seriously pleased at least one political party has the guts to make a stand on this issue.

  5. Hmmm…I’m not really convinced that the abortion thing is going to mean an awful lot to that many, unless we are in danger of being invaded by American bible bashers.

    It’s a bit like making divorce legal, in that I really have no idea whether it is “legal” or not. I didn’t even realise that abortion had not already been made legal, because it’s readily available (and not just in back rooms) and, for the most part, accepted as being so.

    Having said that, I could certainly understand women in many countries wanting the surety of “fully legal” abortions, but is this really important ro New Zealand women? For obvious reasons, I”m not qualified to answer that question – I’d be very interested to know what our lady contributors think though…

    • Its enormously important to me. And I’m a woman.

      I’ve been in the unfortunate situation of thinking I may need an abortion a very few times when I was younger. Each time I was aware of the hoops I would have to jump through to get one, and the thought was daunting.

      Now I live rurally I’m aware the hoops are more difficult to jump through.

      When you live your life with each month allowing the possibility of pregnancy (women know no method of contraception is 100% effective) your life is quite different from never having to think about it.

  6. Nope,…just don’t like it myself,….on one hand we are talking a carbon tax for human rights,.. in the same article we are talking about abortion. We all know there are folk who agree with abortion, and those who don’t. I fall into the latter camp unless there are sound reasons for it.

    Don’t mind the carbon tax , but it doesn’t sit well with me to make it easy to deny human rights to the unborn.

    As for me…I’m happy to see Internet Mana along with Labour and the Greens forming a solid left wing bloc and destroying neo liberalism .

    I also would like a return to Keynesian style economics …and send those Mont Pelerin society neo liberal lackeys in both Labour and National screaming back to their overlord masters that the dream is over. Goodbye ABC’s……

  7. Greens will be lucky to hit 11%. No sound economic just drug crazed star gazers .Public have seen through them. Winston will keep them in their rightful place which is no where near Government

    • Sorry , old chap…but I think you’ll find the greens will indeed be part of the next left wing Govt – along with Internet Mana and NZ First. And that’s ok- a little consensus and compromise is a healthy exercise in a working democratic solution.

      I would have thought you would applaud such overt demonstrations of a democracy at work…..apparently to many on the far right it is a foreign concept….corruption , half truths ‘ biases and deceit seem to be the order of the day when it comes to shoring up the ideologies of neo liberal monetarist policies, however…

  8. The Green party ARE terribly clever , and human . They deserve to be the next government . I’d like to see Russel Norman be the Prime Minister OR Metiria Turei for that matter . They would be good people to whom we could look up to and admire .
    But of course that won’t happen . And that makes me very , very sad .
    We will get the stains in the toilet bowel . We’ll get liars , swindlers and crooks . We’ll get dodgy fuckers who truly only care for their wallets .
    This is our reality , our Universe , our stage . It’s set in cement . The future of our politics is a given . We , the Masses have long lost our grasp of the thinking blob of the brain . I watched Idiocracy yet again the other night and cringed as the adds played during . It was a double dose of whip ass irony . Dumb – O . Adult Voting with a hand job . It’s got electrolytes !
    @ Stuart Munro ? Indeed my friend .

  9. Is everyone checking out RT.            rt.com and also viewable on Sky; and on Freeview I think.

    Breaking the Set with Abbey Martin
    The Keiser Report is like no other economic show. Comedy plus. yet astute to the max.
    The Big picture
    the Truthseeker
    SophieCo
    Crosstalk
    In the Now
    BoomBust
    Sputnik

    Redacted Tonight
    Juice Rap News

    are all kick-ass highly political shows
    providing an alternative to the MSM.

    The news articles are cutting every edge too.

  10. Sucking up for the blue green vote has cost the Greens my vote – not that I expect that to be of any consequence to them 🙂

  11. ” I think I have more chance of personally forming a coalition with John Key than they do post this election. ” Ha ha. Like Toby Manhire’s christmas gift list: ” For Russel Norman, The collected works of Rob Muldoon.” More chance of getting bitten by a shark – twice in one day.
    🙂

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