John Armstrong finally reads The Daily Blog – why 2014 will be NZs first true MMP election


The latest John Armstrong column is proof that the NZ Herald Political Oracle has finally gotten around to reading The Daily Blog because the points he makes into the lead up to the 2014 election are ones that TDB have been raising for over a year now.

It is MMP that will beat John Key and this fact seems to have missed almost every pundit except Armstrong. As TDB has been predicting for a year, it will be Key’s inability to find any coalition partners to become the majority that will be the decider on the night. Yes Key will have the majority – maybe 43-44% but he will only have United Future to add to that. The rotting corpse of ACT could be toppled if Michael Wood and Julie Anne Genter are smart about it in Epsom and the Maori Party meltdown in the Maori Electorates means no mates John Key won’t have the majority. This is why National are keeping Colin Craig as an option to go far right if the centre ground disappear under them.

Armstrong rightfully acknowledges the friction between NZ First and the Greens – that was a friction point The Daily Blog pointed out 2 months ago. Greens hate NZ First for the 2005 lockout, Winston hates Russel for twisting the knife over the Owen Glenn affair – so what would get these two foes to sit down and work together?

As pointed out 2 months ago, the solution is legacy. Winston wants legacy, and seeing as National and Labour will be in a position to offer him any bauble he wants, legacy will have to mean something.

Here’s the solution.

TDB Recommends

Kiwisaver becomes compulsory, the fund generates massive money, that money is put into ‘The NZ Fund’ and that money is used to buy back NZ assets and while buying them back invests to turn those assets Green. That way NZ First and the Greens have skin in policy with Labour over seeing it all.

So NZ First can work with Greens and both of them can work with Labour and Labour has a supply and confidence deal with Internet MANA so NZ First are never in the policy driving seat and gives Cunliffe the same policy flexibility Key has had by having ACT and the Maori Party as options.

The Greens can rightfully demand more Cabinet representation above their proportional percentage when you consider how small a talent pool Labour are fishing out of and the fewer NZ First MPs in that Cabinet, the better for NZ.

The only thing that can topple this all over is if the ABCs. Suddenly realising how powerless they have become by Cunliffe unifying the wider Left, they could decide to throw the election by seeding disunity. If Cunliffe wins, it starts a new political dynasty they have no say in, if Cunliffe loses they can go about gerrymandering their grip on power over the next 3 years and topple the current leadership with their own.

Let’s see if the ABCs desire for power and influence is larger than their responsibility to Labour voters in getting Key out of office.

2014 will be NZs first true MMP election, with voters using tactical voting like never before. It’s taken 18 years, but we have finally as a nation reached a level of maturity to tactically vote and the internet and social media allows that tactical voting to have an impact like never before. Beyond all the flawed land line opinion polls and self serving corporate media punditry, this election will be unique in a way the commentators are only now slowly comprehending.

Good to see John Armstrong is one of them because the biggest problem with political journalism in NZ is we have MMP politics and a First Past Post press gallery.


  1. Great analysis. Sadly the ABC’s ideology is closely aligned with their elite handlers. They will certainly do whatever is required to keep the left out of power. The only free market they support is one which elites are free to manipulate for their own profit. The country and population can be damned so long as the money flows in.

  2. The ABCs are like all factions, split by degrees, it remains to be seen if those wets give traction to the die-hards of the ABCs that are abhorrent at the thought of a party led by anyone but themselves.

    Those die-hards will certainly at least sit on their collective hands during the lead-up to the election, will they go public on their wants, well I think the QB weekend outbursts says they probably will.

  3. Agree that the ABC Warriors may be what loses the election for the left. I think it more likely that Cunliffe will be able to get the Labour team over 30% on the back of the debates, but during the post-election coalition talks a faction will split off taking their votes.

    Doing a Tapsell may be the only way for Mallard to get to the coveted speaker’s chair. If it looks like Turei will get Deputy PM, then I can fully see Parker throwing his toys out of the cot and flouncing off with his acolyte Clark in tow (if he’s high enough up the Party list to even get back in that is). Goff would probably tag along to head up the new quisling Party, along with a couple of others who are past their use-by date.

    This is the real issue for the left this election; the right can rule with a bare majority of one, due to their lucrative inducements and draconian discipline. The left will need a buffer of at least 6 MPs due to the inevitable betrayal by the double-agents that have been embedded in Labour’s ranks.

  4. The ABCers (if such a group still exists) need to forget about their delicate egos and start seriously thinking about a.) the current sad state of this country and b.) the almost unbearable thought of how N.Z will track if the cynical pyschopaths are re-elected.
    If they really,honestly care about the majority of the citizens of this country and the well being of their children and future generations they will pull their heads in,put their heads down or someone will have to bang their heads together!
    ‘United we stand-divided we fall’.
    Simple as that!

    • AND the fact that their party members – who actually get out on the streets and are the engine of any political party – voted David Cunliffe as their choice (maybe saying something fairly strongly that they DON’T want any more libertarians and DO want their old party back thank you very much! Don’t forget the 1984 Labour party membership didn’t want it in the first place.

  5. “Kiwisaver becomes compulsory, the fund generates massive money, that money is put into ‘The NZ Fund’ and that money is used to buy back NZ assets and while buying them back invests to turn those assets Green. That way NZ First and the Greens have skin in policy with Labour over seeing it all.”

    Dear god no!

    Not until Kiwisaver is guaranteed that the principal which has been paid in over the lifetime will not be lost in the event of a financial meltdown.

    At the moment, in the event of GFC MkII all those delicious KS Dollars can be wiped out due to their inherent investment nature.

    There’s also the BIG issue that the KS Providers include KS balances as part of their balance sheets for deposits on which to lend on. This should be a big NO NO.

    Until KS is made more secure than the current house of cards its built on, then compulsory KS should not even be entertained.

  6. The way tactical voting is explained strikes me as being something of a negative experience. Vote for a candidate or party you might dislike to try and prevent a candidate or party that you dislike even more from winning. I prefer to vote in a more positive way – pick the candidate in the electorate that I think will make the best MP, regardless of party. I would (and have done so) even vote for a National Party candidate if I thought he/she was the best choice. Then vote for the party that best represents the policies that you think are important. That is how I have always done it under MMP, others may think differently but that is individual choice in a democratic system.

    • Not sure why you’re being down-thumbed, Mike the Lefty.

      Those are your tactics, as a straight voter.

      Tactical voting seems to be for those who like a bob each way and a certain amount of plot ‘n’ scheme to their three-yearly political punt.

      Just wish there was better quality on offer.

      In fact – if we could compose a parliament of law-makers from any shade on the spectrum instead of having this antique oppositional adversary bilge that churns out useless, spasm-generated ‘law’…

      For the next incarnation of MMP, perhaps.

  7. ” … and that money is used to buy back NZ assets … ”

    Isn’t that like having your house burgled then later you go up to the burglars and offer them money for your stuff back ?
    Am I wrong in thinking , enough of the soft cock approach to what was/is treason and tertiary ?
    I heard prebble babbling about banks on the radio this morning ? How could that be ? Why was prebble not being pelted with shit ? How could he stand still long enough to wheeze out lies and poisonous gasses instead of being on the run ahead of an angry mob ?
    You Martyn have great faith in the thinking prowess of the Masses . I do not .
    I used to have faith in the Masses mind you . That was until I had day to day dealings with them .
    What I discovered about the dreaded Masses was that they are determinedly ignorant , loved the cruelty of the Neo Liberal Right and seem keen to beat each other to death and yet are compliant and cowardly in the face of the authorities who do them the most disservice .
    If you think that somehow new technologies will galvanise the Moron Class into taking responsibility for their own pathetic lives you have , I’m afraid you’ve got another think coming .

    We Kiwis have no political leader . There is no one who has the core vision to lead us into a new and wondrous way . That should be deeply disturbing for us all . It certainly is for me .

    Check out this TED talk . Leadership

  8. If the ABC do the political suicide for power gig – Labour is dead. Why?

    1. The activist I speak to won’t be fooled again.

    2. The pressure for unions to walk away from the labour will be intense.

    3. The sense of betrayal will have a face. And that face will be remembered.

    4. History – the liberal party followed the same path as labour at the beginning of the 20 th century – they mainly became modern day National.

    5. We know who the ABC team are – and they will never win a seat again if the left plays the spoil game in their electorates – Yeah the seats go to the Tories for three years – but better the scum you know, than the scum who smiles nice.

  9. It seems to me that unions such as Unite are much more aligned to Mana than Labour. How long until the union movement collectively shifts its political support to Mana especially if they bring some MPs in?

    • Not while you have Helen Kelly at the helm she is pretty loathe to say anything good about Unite altho this is the union that has really done the donkey work for low paid workers. She is waiting for her seat in Labour. It is pathetic. Between 2000 and 2006 every single piece of industrial legislation that went through the House would have been considerably better had the supplementary papers put forward by the Greens been embraced.then workers would have been better off, their support of the working class was stronger than Labour but the union movement were not encouraged to vote for them.

  10. Are we still blaming the ABC’s? That made sense while they were keeping Cunliffe away from the leadership, however, Cunliffe has been leader for a while now and his policies are the same old.
    It’s obvious Cunliffe is showing no desire to move Labour away from their post-84 path.
    Do people honestly believe that Cunliffe wants to change things but he’s afraid of Goff and those other dinosaurs? Or do people believe that Cunliffe holds no power?

    I just can’t understand why we are still blaming the ABC’s. Perhaps it makes us feel better because it acts like a fairy tale and we can think that Labour’s neoliberal phase was just a hiccup?
    Let’s just vote MANA or the Greens. We owe it to ourselves to turn our backs on Labour. God knows we owe it to the next generation to not give them a ‘left’ government headed by Labour.
    Can’t Labour and National form a coalition at the next election and stop yanking our chain? Stop smiling at our face while you stab us in the back Labour

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