THE LATEST POLL RESULTS are cause for celebration on the Right and commiseration on the Left. There will be many in the National Party who are now convinced that, providing John Key’s government avoids making any serious mistakes in the remaining 117 days to Election Day, victory is assured. By the same tokens, there will be many in the Labour Party who now regard victory in September as a fading mirage. Barring some sort of miracle, they’ve already conceded the battle to National.
For the wider New Zealand community the 2014 General Election is also looking like a done deal. Those of settled conviction and strong partisan loyalties will participate once again in the democratic ritual of voting, but many citizens will question the efficacy of participating in a contest whose outcome is constantly being presented as a statistical certainty. Combine these sceptics with the perennially inert 15 percent of eligible voters who never exercise their democratic rights and it is possible – even likely – that the turnout for the 2014 election will be as low, if not lower, than the record abstention of 2011.
Analysis of the 2011 data suggests that these poll-guided abstainers are as likely to be found among the ranks of National’s voters as they are among Labour’s. That would certainly explain John Key’s playing-down of the Colmar Brunton/Reid Research figures; his anxious reiteration of the likely closeness of this year’s electoral contest; and his repeated appeals to all Centre-Right voters to get up off the couch, make their way to the nearest polling-booth – and vote.
SINCE LOSING POWER IN 2008, the Labour Opposition has had no shortage of self-appointed critics and advisers. Those who have come at this task from the Left have never wavered from the view that if Labour abandoned neoliberalism and reoriented itself towards the democratic socialist principles of its constitution, then a majority of voters would get in behind the resulting left-wing manifesto.
Moreover, so disruptive of “politics-as-usual” would such a manifesto be that even the perennially inert 15 percent of voters would be jolted out of their political apathy and the Centre-Left Vote would surge beyond the Right’s capacity to restrain it. Combined with the left-leaning abstainers of 2011, the numbers available to Labour and its allies would, potentially, be huge. With only slight exaggeration, the left-wing advocates of this “jump to the left” strategy talked about mobilising the “Missing Million” New Zealanders who did not vote.
When sceptics demanded to know what sort of policies it would take to rouse this sleeping psephological giant, the Left-jumpers pointed to the public’s, the business community’s and the news media’s reaction to the joint release of the Labour-Green energy policy in 2013. So strident was the Right’s reaction that even those who usually took no interest in politics pricked up their ears.
By releasing a series of bold and unashamedly left-wing policies, argued the Left-jumpers, Labour would goad the right-wing parties and their media allies into fostering so much jarring and polarising controversy that it would have the effect of stampeding the Non-Vote into active participation.
This is what lay behind the Left’s relentless promotion of David Cunliffe as Labour’s next leader. Unlike David Shearer, Cunliffe was willing to move beyond the orthodoxies of neoliberalism. In a series of speeches he signalled to Labour’s left-wing that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had moved on his thinking about Global Capitalism. As far as he was concerned the Age of Small Government was over.
It was an offer the Left could not refuse.
The Labour Left’s big mistake, however, was to assume that, along with their votes, Cunliffe would also happily accept their electoral strategy. They soon discovered that their man had his own sources of advice, and that these had their own ideas about how to win the 2014 election.
Cunliffe’s inner core of advisers were less interested in the “Missing Million” of non-voters per se, than they were in the roughly 200,000 voters who’d voted for the Labour Party in 2008 but who, for whatever reason, had opted to stay home in 2011. They were confident that these people could be identified, contacted and re-engaged as electors in 2014.
Safely back in Labour’s fold, these voters would lift the party’s level of support into the mid-30s. If the Greens could hold the 11 percent of the Party Vote they’d won in 2011 and NZ First remained above the 5 percent MMP threshold, then the National Party would be squeezed out of contention. John Key’s party could be 10 percentage points ahead of its nearest rival – and still lose.
It was a high-risk strategy with very little margin for error. And, in terms of popularly understood notions of political legitimacy, it was also likely to lead New Zealand into unchartered waters. Since the first MMP election in 1996 the party winning the largest number of votes has always constituted the core of the governing coalition eventually cobbled together after the votes are counted. Cunliffe’s strategy would end that convention by making the party with the second-highest tally of votes the core of a governing coalition. While constitutionally kosher, it nevertheless exposed the resulting government to accusations that “silver and bronze had beaten gold”, and that, as a “coalition of losers”, it lacked a “moral mandate” to govern.
Not to worry. If possession really is nine-tenths of the law, then how the requisite number of seats on the floor of the House of Representatives have been cobbled together will matter much less than the fact that Cunliffe and Labour can rely upon their occupants for Votes of Confidence and Supply. Which leaves us facing the only really important question: “Is the strategy working: do the polls show Labour sitting pat on 34-36 percent of the Party Vote?”
And the answer, of course, is: “No, not at the moment.”
The National Party’s polling agency, Curia’s, time and size-weighted public polls average dated 11 May 2014 has Labour on just 30.5 percent. (A figure unlikely to improve when its proprietor, David Farrar, updates Curia’s averages by including the latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research results.)
For Labour to be in a position to form a government from just 30 percent support the Greens would have to win an unprecedented 14-16 percent of the vote – and Winston Peters would have to come through with 6 percent-plus. Unfortunately, both Colmar Brunton and Reid Research show the Greens with considerably less than that – just 10-11 percent.
Not enough.
All Labour’s strategists – that is, the ones Cunliffe listens to, not the ones he ignores – can advise the party’s supporters to do now is wait and hope. The process of identifying, contacting and re-engaging the Labour abstainers of 2011 is by no means complete. And, for the strategy to work, all the other components of Labour’s 2014 campaign need to begin functioning as planned and on schedule.
It’s an enormous gamble. A sort of “Ocean’s Fourteen” political heist that has to unfold perfectly at every stage – or end in disaster. But Cunliffe, from what I hear, remains as cool as George Clooney in the Hollywood remake of Ocean’s Eleven. He still believes in his star – and, more importantly, in his staff.
All we can do now is sit back, relax, and watch the movie.
I don’t think this will happen. Winston would be more likely to support the Nats on confidence and supply in exchange for minor concessions.
This seems to be just a return to the politics of the 50s and 60s: a semi-permanent National government voted in by a red-faced, dull-witted herd who don’t really think that much about who they are voting for, but are confident that it is “right” nonetheless.
Just be thankful that the National Party is not UKIP or the National Front.
David Cunliffe has every right to “believe in his star”,because he is a star.
Most people with average or above intelligence recognise this.
Your whole article is based on the assumption that the polls presented to the general public are sacrosanct and therefore to be believed without challenge.As has been proven time and time again, the organisations and methodology behind these polls are fundamentally flawed. Ambiguous, loaded questions, designed to easily confuse the unwary are then marketed and spun to achieve their desired result.
The lie is then assimilated into the public consciousness like osmosis via endless repetition on all media outlets.
An age old trick…’Tell a lie often enough and people will believe it as truth.’
Jim Bolger succinctly summed them up with his “bugger the pollsters” comment.
Now we have TV channels with their own agendas, conducting polls and headlining the news with them, using their poor excuses for political journalists ,Dann and Gower ,to put their own mindless transparent spin on them.This is just farcical!
As for using David Farrar as a serious source of information…speechless!
Oh yes. David Cunliffe has every reason to be smiling.He knows exactly what’s going on out there in real electorate land and it ain’t what the mainstream polls are telling you. That you can be sure of!
GRANT – you write:
“An age old trick…’Tell a lie often enough and people will believe it as truth.’
Jim Bolger succinctly summed them up with his “bugger the pollsters” comment.
Now we have TV channels with their own agendas, conducting polls and headlining the news with them, using their poor excuses for political journalists ,Dann and Gower ,to put their own mindless transparent spin on them.This is just farcical!
As for using David Farrar as a serious source of information…speechless!”
Yes, it leaves informed people speechless, but it is the reality. And Chris Trotter does not like to mention the “elephant in the room” (the mainstream media), because he is on “mates terms” with so many of them, he does not wish to risk running into troubles with them.
Fact is, the election outcome is in danger again to be determined by the MSM and such “commenters” of the likes of Hooton and Farrar. When you have the MSM media “personalities” and ordinary journalists turn to them, to also Jordan Williams from the Tax payers Union, and when Whaleoil is allowed to comment on some news shows, then it is not bloody surprising we get what we are getting.
Sadly most in public still rely on MSM news and current affairs to “form” their humble political views, and consequently they are prone to be conditioned by the mostly government friendly and middle class focused media. Add the low quality of journalism, with weather leading the news (like tonight), otherwise crime and superficial, light-hearted other bits, people will never hear what Cunliffe and others want them to hear.
I fear that especially Labour are relying on out of touch advisors, who will not offer the right medicine to use, and the right messages to get out, and that policy is still lacking and insufficiently thought through, so that we will face another repeat of 2008 and 2011.
Talking with media that rubbish things Cunliffe and others say as soon as the interview is over, that will not achieve anything much to win an election. The alternative is the streets, halls, events, work places, using unions to have their members talk with family, friends, using supporters and members to go out and do their bit, and to use leaflets, social media and forums for public members to ask questions, little else.
Hit the road and roll up the sleeves, and do not bother sitting on Paul Henry’s late show, as that will NOT win any votes!
Labour has plenty of well thought through policies.
National have none.That’s why they steal Labours’.
What Labour doesn’t have is a compliant media like National; and I agree that the best way to get the message out there, is on the ground and in the halls throughout New Zealand.It’s the only way to avoid the obfuscation and corruption of their message !
I am perplexed about the phrase “unchartered waters”
No.
I will not “concede the battle”.
Enjoy the movie, Chris.
Meanwhile, I intend to be out campaigning, and leafletting for Labour, Greens, Mana – whoever will put a dagger through the heart of this odious government.
On election day I will be transporting several people who did not vote last time, to a voting station.
I intend to make the next 117(and counting down) days productive.
how cute ^.^
It seems to me that the left and right blocks are now fully engaged. The media is fed non-stop position pieces and events like the Key house drone rally and the Banks trial keep the pressure on. Nothing very sensible will come from the polls now, their major purpose is to make the enemy blink.
Blinking now loses the contest as surely as trying to disengage from a scrum. The left, having more to lose, are traditionally more committed.
Where are the clear and simple messages that the electorate can relate to?
Helen Clark got elected with a pledge card that clearly identified 10 things she would do once in power. And, she did them.
The John Ansell billboards very simply and clearly delineated the party differences – Brash didn’t get there but it was very close.
First there would have to be a cohesive message to communicate. The only message Labour are communicating is that their caucus hates their leader.
If Labour loses because of disruptions within, it is dead in the water. The failure to properly support Phil Goff in an election that Labour went close to winning in 2011, hangs over Labour like the sword of damocles.
Chris, I don’t want to hear why we can’t win. I want to hear what we need to do to win!
I’ll be leafletting and door-knocking this year!!!
Don’t come knocking on my door. I have three Rottweilers, a shotgun and was recently diagnosed as a schizophrenic.
You are the National Party’s Chief Strategist and I claim my $10!
Do you also threaten the kids selling the GG biscuits? Wot a Meanie!
PS – If the Arms Officer finds out you’re flirting with stupidity you won’t have the shotgun for long.
And if you have a genuine mental illness, plus aggressive tendencies – hand in the weapon. Aramoana was once too often.
Rotties can be very nice, depending on the owner, but if you don’t have the reggo for the dogs you might have to trade them in for an attack cat. Bang goes the image…:-)
The only thing that’d unhinge jonky from the hearts and feeble , non thinking , digital minds of the Piss Off set ( Refer candle lit vigil ) will be a commission of inquiry , arrest , charges , sentencing then imprisonment . And even then , I bet you , they’d defend the scum bag all the way to Mount Eden prison and beyond . Such is the control he and his ilk have over their/our minds .
David Cunliffe MUST fight them with their own weapons .
Have you ever watched this ? http://youtu.be/m_uMxwUs308 . If not , please ? Watch it . Now ponder the metaphor .
Lesson # 1 . Do not take a bow and arrow to a gun fight .
When Labour ‘ lost ‘ the 2009 election I saw , and I’m not exaggerating , a flourish of Blue hoardings weeks before Labour found enough red paint and screws . ( Sorry , conspiracy alert here . I reckon Labour threw that election . Just sayin’ . )
I should know , I defaced quite a few by drawing Hitler moustaches on Jonky and was amazed at how comfortable he looked in it . Oh the irony ?
Here’s a solemn suggestion for David Cunliffe , providing he wants to kick jonky’s flaccid arse in September .
Ring up Sacha Baron – Cohen’s cousin , Simon Baron-Cohen FBA . He’s a Professor of Developmental Psychopathology at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom . I bet he’d have a few good ideas on how to send jonky into a tail spin and get that little sociopathic parasite off our backs . ( No ! I’m not fucking kidding ! )
The up and coming election isn’t going to be won by trying to get the Masses to understand their responsibilities to vote much less hope they comprehend the complex nature of a simple thing . You must remember , they are so numb and afraid that they can barely function on the most basic of levels .
We’ve just seen rises in mortgage rates for fucks sake and we have the most over inflated property values in the Western World so I read . A decent hike in the power bill will see people going cold and hungry soon . Or lose their homes .
If David Cunliffe wants to win , and I really , really hope he does and he isn’t just another one of ‘them ‘ then he must sell security , safety , the alleviation of anxiety and the end to fear mongering .
Metaphor Alert !
Hey ! ? You’re stuck on a cliff edge , alone and hungry after you slip but at least you’re not falling to your death right ? Now , figure a way out of the mess you find yourself in . Take your time . Look around . Think . Use your imagination and make use of the tools you have …..
There ya go . Use what you know , what you have learned and also engage with the New .
If you want to defeat jonky , become jonky .
AKA . Know your enemy .
This was brilliant, I hope the GCSB passes this onto the opposition parties so they can take note.
Because from where I see it the gNats have an answer for everything they have done to destroy our country and they’re buying off the msm to create bias towards them.
Mind you, the GCSB works for Key and co…I forgot.
Sit back, relax and watch the movie, 117 days out from an election? I take it that Chris has retired from actively trying to support democracy.
Yes, it will be hard, always has been. Yes, the MSM has tightened its propaganda fist around most people’s heads. Yes, apathy is understandably rife. Sad to have lost you Chris. Come back some day when you are up to it.
What’s the point? They never listen to us. There’s the odd pollie who works for those who have either come to the end of their string and have no one else to ask; or their mates. The rest?
Back in the day politics actually meant something. If you could get your people into power then change could be made, or you got to hold on to your gains.
Now – have you seen the barely-set jellies they rush through under urgency?! If this was the old water torture for change – we’d die from dehydration.
There’s no will to change and bring the energy of central government into play for the good of most. Status quo and stay as far out of our lives as possible. Nanny state and all that hoo-ha. There’s no point in hoping for anything better. It’s not going to happen. Why vote? It just encourages them.
Most of their ‘help the economy!’, ‘more jobs’ ranting is just that – ranting. The economy will totter to its knees for a bit longer. Push the button, mate! I’m on the train!
And that’s the polite version.
‘Democracy’ is not voting every few years and ignoring most of the drivel and scheming from the Beehive Bubble.
Parties and elections are simply nasty out-dated rubbish for keeping those with inclination and conformist ideas in the comforts to which they’d love to become accustomed.
Time we moved on.
Guys and Girls
I am honestly shocked that you could live in such a state of denial.
Here are the facts:
1/ National has done extremely well by any rational measure you can think of.(N.B. I said rational, so most you aren’t in a position to comment)
2/ Labour’s lurch to the Left dooms it. Unless it appeals to the middle ground of the demographic it will not gain votes. 101 Stats would be of help to the Left.
3/ The ‘white-anting’ within the Left is destroying it. National merely has to stand and watch. Go look at the Standard if you want to see a self-destructing Left.
4/ Cunliffe is just a carpet bagger. He’s no more a Socialist than I am. He did a deal with the Unions that gave him their block vote is all. He’s a multi-millionaire living on the back of his corporate lawyer wife. I am sick of Champagne Socialists.
5/ Every trick Labour has tried so far has ultimately blown up in their face. They have no traction in the polls which shows that the average punter can spot ‘dodgy’ when they see it:
> Labour whines about the ‘manufacturing crisis’ and then we have the highest manufacturing index in 30 years.
>Labour whines about Chinese immigrants when the previous Labour immigration minister (David C) is on record supporting immigration
> Labour whines about the exodus of Kiwis to Aussie and then whines about them coming back again
> Labour attacks Key’s fancy house, when Cunliffe lives in Herne Bay
What is apparent is the lack of consistency from the current leaders of the Left.
Come back Mike Moore and Roger Douglas! All is forgiven!
Comments are closed.