I hear tonights 3 News/Reid Research Poll will have National on 51% and will claim that 65% of Labour voters back National’s Budget. Before the Left collectively contemplate suicide a couple of things.
1 – Based on the shallow analysis of the budget that most mainstream media ran, I’m surprised it isn’t 100% of Labour Party voters didn’t support the Budget. TDB has provided many analysis of the Budget showing it up for the sad joke it is.
2 – It’s the bloody 3 News/Reid Research Poll. In the month of the 2011 election, the 3 News/Reid Research poll took 3 polls over the 3 weeks of the last month leading up to the election. Remember, National gained 47.3%. In the first week of the final month 3 News/Reid Research gave National 53.3%, in the second week of the last month 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.3% and in the 3rd week of the last month 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.8%. They were out by 6%, 3% and 3.5%. Their margin of error was 3.1%.
When even the 3 News/Reid Research Poll are outside their own margin of error twice leading into the 3 weeks of the last election, I’d suggest the 3 News/Reid Research Poll is about as good at predicting elections as John Key is at remembering all the times he met his school chum Ian Fletcher just before offering him spy boss of the GCSB.
Despite what the corporate mainstream media are desperately spinning with their flawed landline opinion polls – the election will be far closer than they are claiming.