Two of the lynchpin electorates that need to go the Opposition’s way if there is any chance of a Labour led Government are Waiariki and Epsom.
Epsom is the only lifeline for ACT and if the 6000 progressive voters in Epsom who wasted their vote for the Labour or Green candidates in the last election simply put that vote towards the National Party candidate (who only lost by 2000 votes to John Banks), then they could end ACT. This Epsom tactic must be generated online and pushed via social media, if ACT can be dumped this election, National lose a coalition partner.
Waiariki is the other crucial electorate. The Maori Party are set to lose Te Tai Hauāuru and Tāmaki Makaurau leaving Waiariki as their only possible win. The bonus for the Maori Party is that they will probably get 2% Party vote so if Te Ururoa Flavell wins Waiariki, he’ll bring in 2 other Maori Party MPs with him, that’s 3 votes for the National Party.
Annette Sykes slashed Flavell’s majority from 7000 to 1800 with only 6 weeks campaigning last election, I believe she will take that electorate this year after 3 years of solid team building in the electorate.
By eliminating 2 of National’s potential coalition partners, the Opposition makes it increasingly difficult for National to form the necessary Parliamentary majority needed to govern.
What would stop a desperate National from not running a candidate in Epsom?
I think that would just be too desperate
If that happened I guess everyone who doesn’t like Act should vote for the Labour candidate and defeat Act that way. But I agree Martyn that it would just be too desperate for Nats not to stand a candidate.
If someone stood as an Independent National candidate in Epsom that might make for a fairly interesting contest.
So if those unexpected results eventuate it just leaves National with United Future, Conservatives and NZ First.
Still plenty of options to choose from.
Mind you the way the polls are going and with Labour set to take a hit following Shane Jones departure National might not need any co-alition partners.
TRM is right Bomber, in that getting rid of Dunney in Ohariu is also a critical electorate campaign. I hope the team that formed to challenge him over his support for asset sales, and GSCB bills, regroup and do some more good work over the election campaign. The Conservatives don’t have a shit-show, as their total disappearance from the media over the last few months makes clear. Right-leaning neo-cons who might support them will rally to ACT, and left-leaning conservatives will continue to vote for Winston.
Yes, Winston could decide to go with the public asset privatizers of National, but I think he knows it would be the end of his credibility and his party. I wouldn’t vote for them just in case, but I’m betting against it.
As for Shane Jones, the Crosby-Textor sock puppets are really pushing this wishful thinking that Jones’ departure from politics is bad news for Labour. Jones is a crony capitalist who makes KDC look like a green leftist by comparison. I think it’s just as likely that Jones has been intentionally poisoning the Labour trough on behalf of his Tory and Oil+Gas paymasters, and now that he’s finally fallen on his sword, Labour will experience a revitalization.
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