Adam Bennett, the NZ Herald’s political reporter, has published a column with some wonky Tai Tokerau logic…
Unless the Mana Internet alliance pulls off the unlikely feat of reaching the 5 per cent mark on election night, all of this depends on Mr Harawira holding his Te Tai Tokerau seat.
With a strong campaign, Labour’s highly rated former MP Kelvin Davis stands a good chance of taking the seat for Labour this year.
An all-out effort by the Maori Party to get their former colleague Mr Harawira dumped from Parliament would help.
…couple of things:
1 – No, it doesn’t just depend on Hone winning Te Tai Tokerau. If Adam had done some research he would note that Annette Sykes had slashed Te Ururoa Flavell’s majority from 7000 to 1800 in only six weeks of campaigning. Waiariki is very much in play this election.
2 – Kelvin is a strong candidate, but with a high Labour party list ranking, voters in Tai Tokerau know that Kelvin will be in Parliament anyway, so they get two great representatives in their electorate for the price of one by electing Hone. Adam also misses the hard work MANA have done inside the Maori electorates, it’s almost as if the surprise second place of MANA in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election has totally passed the NZ Herald’s political reporter by.
3 – If Adam is relying on the Maori Party being able to get their act together as the end of MANA, he’s being optimistic in the extreme.
Matt McCarten, the Jedi Master of the Left knows how to count. He knows what Labour need to do to win this election, he knows the importance of using MMP strategically.
What we are seeing now is a realisation by the mainstream media that their flawed landline opinion polls won’t see the landslide win to John Key they have been predicting for the last 3 years and this realisation has them flailing around trying to understand the rapidly changing political landscape.
Many Pakeha pundits have predicted the end of Hone Harawira, Guyon Espiner once smugly predicted on TV that Kelvin would beat Hone in the last by-election. Adam just joins that list.