Latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll: NAT 47%, LAB 31%, GRN 11%, NZF 7%, CNSV 2%, MAO 1%
3 News-Reid Research: Nat 45.9%; Lab 31.2%; Grn 11.2%; NZF 4.9%; Con 1.9%; Maori 1.5%; Man 1.1%; Act 1.1%; UF 0.1% – Internet Party 0.4%
So much for the landslide majority win to National that so many of these flawed polls keep boasting about. Taking into account the bias of landline opinion polls, the latest results mean National are far closer to 40% and Labour far closer to 35%.
Game on.
The real story however is the don’t knows in the TV One poll.
TVOne’s poll had 18% don’t knows???????????? Why the hell isn’t THAT the story?
It’s also becoming increasingly apparent that NZ First may have a larger roller to play. I’m still picking them to come under 5% with a far better Labour performance and lack of teapot scandal to empower them. With the left picking up NZ First’s protest vote combined with the Conservatives picking away at their right flank, I still think NZ First will have problems gaining over 5%.
The left need contingencies if Winston does manage that, and I will explore how they do that in a blog later today.
Interesting to see Internet Party already registering .4% and how organised they were for the anti-TPPA march on Saturday…
…I will post on the latest update of the MANA Movement & Internet Party Alliance today.
I have repeatedly said that the 2014 election will be far closer than the mainstream media are pretending it will be and these polls prove that. If the Left can focus on using MMP strategically around a handful of electorates, the mainstream media and the sleepy hobbits who believe them will be the surprised ones on election night.
[…] I still think that NZ First won’t gain over 5% for a variety of reasons, if they do manage to gain over 5% could NZ First work with a progressive Government or would they […]
You’re nothing if you’re not positive Martyn. The worrying aspect to the narrative adjoining these polls is that people on the left will, yet again, fail to turn out and vote, believing the corporate media narrative that a National victory is a foregone conclusion. Keep up the good work explaining that we are still very much in this thing and have a good chance of regaining our country from corporate elites come September.
If only Labour would turn a little more to the left its support would go up amazingly.
Agreed. Given that Snowden leaks have already revealed quite a few specifics of the TPPA, Labour might be expected to respond to some of them. Reluctance to engage is not consistent with anything you’d vote for.
My 23 year old daughter whose only interest in politics is that of following the way her parents’ vote and a keen sense of fairness, said that the Internet Party is the only party that has something useful. Perhaps she really meant it has the only party rhetoric that she can relate to. Must be a good thing. Waking the sleeping?
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