My guess as to the election date is October 11th.
The G20 summit in Brisbane means Key can not seriously be out of the country for a weekend during the campaign, so the election must be before November 15th.
There are some weekend clashes due to sport and Labour Weekend, leaving October 11th as the most likely date for Key to pick.
But then there is the ‘what if’, and this ‘what if’ comes in the form of John Banks and his trial. The Judge called for the trial to occur in the first quarter if this year so March is rapidly approaching.
If Banks is found guilty, he must stand down from Parliament, that means the Government’s one seat majority is gone. Now would Key try and stitch a deal together with the Maori Party for the rest of the years legislative agenda? Or would Key start the NZ First romance early and stitch an arrangement with NZ First for the remainder of the term?
The question then becomes, would the Maori Party (who are only now realising how damaged their place at Key’s table has cost them in terms of flax roots support) cut a deal with Key when they are desperately trying to distance themselves from National and would Winston lose his greatest trick for the election of not showing who he would side with by propping Key up for another 6 months?
Key could go for a by-election in Epsom, but ACT aren’t ready and the chances are National would accidentally win the seat, especially if opposition parties recommended a vote for the National candidate just to stop ACT.
So would Key go for an early election if Banks was found guilty? Would the possibility of a deal with the Maori Party and NZ First just prove to be too unpalatable for both minor parties? Would Key suddenly not have a majority for his legislative platform and risk looking like a lame duck Prime Minister?
The Opposition should plan for an October Election with the knowledge that the Banks trial could change everything.
I thought Banks was going to trial in May! Kim DC is March add the Royal Tour in April and the budget has been bought forward to May too (lolly scramble to buy votes) so I am picking June/July snap election
The budget was on 16 May last year, so has not really been “brought forward” this year, tho.
I am finding this election fascinating, there is so much going on and so much to come. You couldn’t write a TV script any more entertaining than this, it is all happening, and put into an awesome summary of events like this makes me quite excited about it, let’s get started.
There has to be a reason for an election. key may try and create a problem. But I don’t think it will help him.
Actually, National can afford to accidentally win Epsom in a by-election as long as they don’t use Paul Goldsmith.
If National won Mr John Smith in an Epsom by-election and win, Mr John Smith takes the seat that previously belonged to Banks. Goldsmith remains in on the list. National therefore now has 60 seats, not 59. And can continue to govern with just United Dunne.
It’s fine to win Epsom in a by-election. They can’t win Epsom in a general election because then they wouldn’t get that other list seat.
Simple MMP.
Yes but if National won the seat, the chances of ACT winning it back this year in the general election would be next to nothing; thus the conundrum.
Well one thing is pretty sure. There are around a million dark and or aspirational kiwi electors guaranteed to vote for one John Phillip ShonKey and his filthy gang (why do we live here again…).
So it is up to Daily Blog supporters and the rest of the left to motivate, enrol and enlist the other disengaged kiwis to vote and get active politically in a general sense. There are more than enough of them to remove the natz. One neighbour, friend or acquaintance at a time, whatever it takes.
Everyone will be glad to see the back of Banksie, but won’t be a major hit for the PM really, tho will give the bag a shake as Bomber says. But what is Key up to pre-empting the Snowden NZ info?
National could use Goldsmith. The number of list MPs is fixed at the general election, so if Goldsmith won Epsom, they’d get the next willing candidate from the 2011 list in.
Labour should lobby for a 6 December election (last reasonable date without campaigning or counting over public holidays) allowing them to berate Key when he goes early.
Those facts all make perfect sense and should be considered in how (timing of how) this important race is run.
We are only 5 weeks into the year, yes an election year, but with all these speculations about the election date, the debate about polls, presumptions about who may go with whom, I am already slowly getting sick of this “election” talk.
Would it not be better that we discuss the topics that matter, challenge the parties to deliver on what needs to be delivered, get the parties to the left of centre to make the commitments and to hammer out the policies that are needed, that will move the country ahead for the coming decades?
That may actually be what may convince enough voters to bring about the overdue change.
I think that is where debate and discussion should go, not into endless speculations about dates, times, ifs, buts and maybes.
Best wishes, enjoy the weekend.
M.
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