Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the Left has a Sh*tload of Work ahead of it!



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The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good news for the Progressive Left, with National regaining much the the loss it suffered in the last few polls, and up 3.5 percentage points since January figures. Labour and the Greens have dropped 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.

In the chart below, the most recent Roy Morgan poll (January 20 – February 2, 2014) is compared to a recent TV3-Reid Research poll and previous Roy Morgan poll (6 – 19 January 2014);


Roy Roy Morgan poll 6 – 19 Jan 2014 TV3 – Reid Research Poll 2 Feb 2014 Roy Morgan poll – 20 Jan – 2 Feb 2014
Right Bloc



TDB Recommends



Maori Party




Conservative Party








United Future/Peter Dunne




Left Bloc













Wild Cards

NZ First

The Internet Party






For the First time, Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party is registering in a Poll. At 0.5%, it polls higher than both United Future and ACT. But unless it wins an electorate seat (unlikely), it will not gain representation in Parliament.

Tracking Roy Morgan’s polling;


Roy Morgan New Zealand Voting Intention - February 4, 2014


In their formal press release, Gary Morgan said,

“The resurgence for National comes as Prime Minister John Key has raised the possibility of a referendum on changing the New Zealand Flag coinciding with this year’s election. Key made the point that Canada, which changed its national flag in 1965 to a maple leaf, had never regretted its decision to remove the Union Jack.

“However, despite this week’s improvement for National the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter employment statistics show 19.8% (up 2.7% since the September Quarter) of New Zealanders are unemployed or under-employed. A total of 519,000 New Zealanders (up 69,000). For John Key and National to retain their current lead and stand a good chance of re-election at the end of the year, further reforms are needed to reduce labour market regulation and provide real opportunity for the more than half a million New Zealanders looking for work or looking for more work to find gainful employment.”

Which just goes to show; never under-estimate politicians and their tax-payer funded media strategists ability to manipulate the public.

On a discordant note, Gary Morgan’s reference to “further reforms are needed to reduce labour market regulation” is odd, considering that New Zealand’s labour laws are amongst the most de-regulated and liberal in the OECD. It would be hard to see what Morgan is referring to other than doing away with the minimum wage; all remaining health and safety laws; and banning Unions entirely? Bizarre.

Note: Taken between 20 January and  2 February 2014, the poll was conducted through  calling 846 respondents, both on landline and mobile telephones. Currently, Roy Morgan is the only polling company that calls cellphones as well as landlines.

The previous Roy Morgan poll was conducted by calling  1,509 respondents, As such, the lower figure of respondents may be a factor in National’s “improving” fortunes? (Or else, people just liked talking about the flag…)

One thing is for certain;  Labour, Green, and Mana supporters  are going to have to work bloody hard to effect a change in government this year. It’s going to be a tough year!





TV3: 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker

Roy Morgan: National (47%) regains lead from Labour/ Greens (44%)

Previous related blogposts

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (12 December 2013)

Roy Morgan Poll: Unemployment and Under-employment up in New Zealand!

TV3 Polling and some crystal-ball gazing

Latest Roy Morgan poll bad news for National




National ACT out

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen



= fs =


  1. Labour as the leading Left party (And the Greens) need to make some changes.

    1/ Labour need to make climate change an election issue.[i]

    2/ Labour need to say that they will stop all deep sea oil drilling.

    3/ Labour need to say that they will ban all new coal mining.

    4/ Labour need to say that they will cancel all taxpayer subsidies to fossil fuel companies like Solid Energy and oil explorers.[ii]

    5/ They need to say the will cancel RONS and to get New Zealand moving will plough the money earmarked for this hugely expensive boondoggle into public transport and rail instead.

    5/ They need to explain why all the above must be done.

    6/ Labour need to say that they will exclude New Zealand First as a coalition partner.[iii]

    7/ Labour need to say that the $1.5billion in tax reversals that they have announced for the poor will be more than doubled by tax reversals on the rich.

    [i] Over 60% of the population want the government to do more on climate change.

    [ii] This will free up hundreds of $millions of dollars currently being spent to fry the planet, and instead this money will be ploughed into job rich sustainable industries.

    [iii] New Zealand First must not be allowed to become King Maker. If people realise that a vote for Winston is a vote for National, this will cut into NZF’s electoral base.

    • P.S. Labour need to campaign under the New Zealand flag to clearly mark out National as the lowly traitors they are.

      No to the TPPA! No to any infringement on our nation’s sovereignty! No to any change in the flag!

      Expose all the corporate lackeys and sell outs

      (This would also expose and isolate Winston Peters as not the Great Nationalist he poses as)

    • Jenny I am of the view that it would be fantastic if Labour ran the line you are advocating. Because they would never get their grubby little hands on the levers of power ever again. NZ political opinion is concentrated in the centre, not on the loony left. The Greens have destroyed Labour’s electoral base, and if part of a Government would destroy NZ’s productive economy.

      • “NZ political opinion is concentrated in the centre, not on the loony left.

        By supporting Deep Sea Oil Drilling, Labour have abandoned the centre.
        It is the middle classes that are the most concerned about environmental issues.

        By raising the retirement age, Labour have abandoned the older more conservative voters.
        It is this sector of the population that vote in the highest numbers.

        By reversing their promise to remove the GST on fruit and veges and the tax on the first $5,000 of income, Labour have abandoned beneficiaries and working people on low incomes.
        It is this sector of the population that represent most of the 800,000 that can’t be bothered voting, that Labour say they want to encourage to vote.

        Labour have abandoned the centre, but not as much as they have abandoned their senses.

        • I wonder if a disappointment with Labour’s policy announcements to date have any bearing on the fact that the Greens have finally caught up with their 33% on this site’s poll.

      • No, NZ’s political opinion is not concentrated in the centre…where is this ‘centre’ you talk of? Why has is moved so much over the years? Read a history book, or watch a documentary if that’s too much. Is this ‘centre’ always going to be neoliberal economics and liberal social policies? (the answer to that is no)
        5 years ago NZ was pro smacking, now NZ are anti-smacking. 8 years ago NZ was for educational investment, now NZ are for educational privatisation.
        Saying no to the TPPA is hardly revolutionary, nor is it loony left wing (whatever loony left is?).
        Maybe your idea of political opinion being concentrated somewhere along the neoliberal spectrum comes from the political hacks such as Gower and the Granny Herald, or maybe you got the idea from Kiwiblog? I dunno, and I don’t really want to know.

        Political opinion has always been concentrated around the popular social and economic discourses of the day. That’s where voters were concentrated in 1935, 1999 and 2008. If you change the discourse, then you change the voters. The centre of politics always remains fluid, we just need Labour to define where the left is, rather than believing the morons and then chasing this imaginary ‘centre’.
        Voters vote for a strong coherent narrative, trust, direction, and a number of other things, depending on the wider socio-political and economic context. Your superficial left vs right analysis is basic and boring. If we wanted a D-Grade Pols 101 analysis we’d tune into Radio Live. Please stop regurgitating moronic mainstream political drivel, you’re putting us all to sleep. zzzzzz

    • I agree with what you’re saying, Jenny. (The only part I’m not *totally* sure about is ruling out NZ First, and you certainly may well be right on that point too.)

      What I’m surprised by is that your comment has a rating of 0 after 20+ comments. I’d be interested in what people actually have to say to argue against Jenny’s points.

      • The reason that Labour need to rule out New Zealand First is because a vote for Winston is a vote National.

        Labour need to make this clear.

        The first chance he gets Winston will form a government with the Nats.

        He has said that he will be forming a government with the biggest party. On all polling this is National.

        But this is not saying that NZ First would not go with Labour, if the Labour Green Block was bigger than the National NZ First bloc.

        But in this case Labour would not need NZF.

        The only reason that Labour would want NZF in their government would as a counter to the Greens.

        This would be a hostile act, by Labour towards the Greens.

        Labour need to distance themselves from Winston and as soon as possible.

  2. We on the left have a big job ahead of us with or without this poll. The most disappointing part of the poll is that the low number polled and the comments suggest that Roy Morgan is now a player and not just an observer. Which I find disheartening because up till now I have seen the Roy Morgan poll as the one to take seriously.

    I hope that David Cunliffe is able to get around the country and speak to people and groups face-to-face, bypassing the media as much as possible, or at least forcing them to travel if they hope to keep up with him. This has worked well for Winston, who has a much smaller base to draw on than Labour does.

  3. Back in 1972 American presidential candidate George McGovern campaigned on getting the United States out of Vietnam in 90 days. Nixon won by around 49 states and for sure thousands of Nixon voters had dead sons within the next three years. A lot of voters seem to find bad attractive.

    • Nixon posed as dove and also campaigned on a quick end to the war. What US voters didn’t realise at the time was what Nixon meant, was to swiftly end the war on terms favourable to the US even if it took mass murder. In the event Nixon’s escalation did not end the war but prolonged it.

  4. In my view, the polls are going to fluctuate wildly this year – a trend which began last year. Therefore, the lead will swing between centre-right and centre-left for much of this year. This volatility illustrates that it will be a very close election and it may come down to Winston deciding who governs – and he would favour (as an old Nat) his former party as he did in 1996. Therefore, even more reason for us to campaign hard for a centre-left majority, even if it’s by one vote, in 2014. The Greens only have to get 15% and Labour 35% to practically change the government with Mana’s help in Te Tai Tokerau.

  5. I also see these polls as important wake up calls. This isn’t going to be an easy campaign as everyone has realised with National’s vicious attacks on Metiria Turei. Also Labour could have helped itself by better selling it’s ‘baby bonus’ policy and not making foolish comments about taking Facebook down if they didn’t pay their taxes (even if David Clark was taken out of context). The Tories will make great light of any mistakes made by the left this year as they did last week. Therefore, tight messaging and a good, focused campaign with great, widely appealing policies will hopefully help shift public perceptions just enough to change government. And remember too, the left’s position has improved from a low of nearly 40% at the last election to be sitting anywhere between 45% and 48% now. We on the left should learn to pat ourselves on the back for that recovery too, especially against a National Party led by a very slick but yet arrogant operator in John Key. And, of course, the right-wing media will never play that recovery up at all!

    • David Clark seems to be another liability, just like Goff, Mallard, and Jones. Do any of them actually want to see a government which attacks neoliberalism? The evidence would suggest not. They should just get out of the road.

      • Indeed, Ovicula.

        There has to be a greater degree of self-discipline amongst Labour (and other Left) candidates. By now we should all be aware that the Nats are so desperate that they are waiting for any opportunity – no matter how miniscule – to attack.

        The compliant msm is only too happy to assist, as the contradictory approach to David Cunliffe’s “Best Start” error and John Key’s fictititious “Governor General jostled” comment demonstrated.

    • What does the tax department do to other individuals and companies that flout the tax laws. Why would fb be exempt, could the reasoning behind that people, be selfish?

  6. If Labour are serious about getting into Government they need to get the disaffected voters who did not vote, to get up off the couch and go and post there votes. We reap what we sow.

    • Spot on, Jack.

      800,000 voters who didn’t vote in 2011 – that would sweep a Labour-Green-Mana coalition into power and force John Key out of office forever. Then the Nats would appoint Judith Collins as their Leader, making them unelectable, as with Don Brash, for the next two terms.

      Sounds like three Christmas’s rolled into one.

    • That’s the whole point. You pay them to sit on the couch, and that is the place that they will find the most comfortable!

  7. Well, I am waiting, I am waiting, for Labour t finally come to their senses and show clearer directions for a range of important policies.

    For instance they could announce the absolutely necessary: To radically reform the social security policy, by doing away with the endlessly amended, unworkable, now overly punitive, draconian and absurd “Social Security Act”, and bring in a Universal Basic Income system, that ties in with a well reformed taxation system. It would save hundreds of millions in bureaucratic administration costs!

    Also they must do away with this bizarre “science” coming from certain Unum Provident Insurance funded “researchers” like Aylward, Waddell and others, and accept true science, and stop harassing sick and disabled, who mostly would love to work, but need fair and respectful support to get forms of work they can do, without being further marginalised by employers and unsympathetic co-workers on the highly competitive open job market.

    We need PARNTERSHIP, INCLUSION, RESPECT and FAIRNESS, not the crap this government has come up with!

    Give true incentives, increase the minimum wage to say $ 16 an hour, strive to offer the living wage for all, and offer education and training to improve skills that will be needed in a more productive, value adding society.

    Once Labour is ready to start such a major project, then they will be seen as change bringers, not with just a few patches of new policies here and there, to gain a few extra votes in the “centre”.

    Dare the BIG LEAP AHEAD, dear Labourites!

  8. The whole flag debate was carefully planned as a diversion to take people away from the real issues which will decide the 2014 election. The left have to be aware of these diversions. Key is a very shrewd manipulator and is not fit for another 3 years in office

    • While there is truth in the meme that ‘the whole flag debate is a deliberate diversion’, this is not the full story. Symbolism plays a big part in human affairs, formalising new ways of thinking and doing things.

      If you look at the flag debate in this light you can understand the Right’s desire to change the flag.

      The TPPA is the biggest attack on this country’s sovereignty since the country was annexed by the British Crown. Under Investor States Disputes rules (contained in the TPPA) a sovereign government, (ours), democratically elected to make changes to environmental or labour laws that cost foreign multinationals any losses, at all, will be severely punished, in secret off shore tribunals.

      This ascendency of big business over democracy will be formalised by a new flag. According to John Key the only choice will be the white fern on a black background, this is the only alternative to the current flag that will be offered in the referendum.

      The white fern on a black ground is a registered trade mark, for which the country will either have to purchase the rights for, or pay royalties to use. In the case of the latter this would make New Zealand unique in the world as the only country with a privatised flag.

      Polls show that a majority of the population favour the retention of the current flag. However with a huge diversionary media propaganda campaign with all the bells and whistles this could change.

      The thing the Left can do right now to undermine this whole diversion. Is say right now that they are not in favour of any change. But the Left has done the opposite, all agreeing with Key that the flag needs to change and giving this issue the credibility it would otherwise not have.

      Labour the Greens and Mana need to come out right now and cut this diversionary debate off at the knees, by saying that they support the retention of the current flag and oppose any change. And that the current flag despite its faults, has a history that at least represents something other than the corporate rebranding of a marketable product.

      The only reason we are discussing this issue is that the Left has refused to bury it.

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