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The latest TV3-ReidResearch poll confirms what many are beginning to accept as a growing reality; unless Labour (or the Greens) have a major stumble, there will be a change of government at the end of the year. The only caveat to this is the unpredictable Winston Peters.
Normally, I place little faith in polls other than the Roy Morgan poll (and of course, the only poll that counts: election day) because none of the other pollsters call cellphones. As the Census showed last year, only “85.5% of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6% in 2006″.
This means that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline.
That is quite a chunk of the electorate. Especially when indications are that this year’s election will be a close result between the Left and Right bloc.
Because Roy Morgan is the only polling company that (currently) calls cellphones as well as landlines, it is more accurate than companies that call only the latter.
What makes the TV3-Reid Research poll so interesting is that, this time, it seems to mirror the last Roy Morgan poll taken between 6 January to 19 January, 2014.
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| Roy Roy Morgan poll 6 – 19 January 2014 | TV3 – Reid Research Poll 2 February 2014 | |
| Right Bloc | ||
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National |
43.5% |
44.05% |
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Maori Party |
2.00% |
1.00% |
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Conservative Party |
2.50% |
2.10% |
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ACT |
0.00% |
0.00% |
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United Future/Peter Dunne |
0.50% |
0.00% |
| Left Bloc | ||
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Labour |
33.50% |
33.50% |
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Greens |
12.50% |
12.40% |
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Mana |
0.50% |
0.30% |
| Wild Card | ||
|
NZ First |
4.00% |
5.70% |
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In both polls, National is losing support, whilst Labour is gaining. (The Greens have lost support in one poll, but gained in another.)
Interestingly, both the Maori Party and Mana poll higher in the Roy Morgan poll. This is unsurprising as the constituents of both parties are more likely to rely solely on cellphone communications rather than landlines, and Roy Morgan is subsequently better placed to poll these voters.
As I wrote on 30 January, though NZ First polled at 4% in the Roy Morgan poll – just under the 5% threshold – this blogger believes Peters will pull his Party up, and return to Parliament. (The only qualifyer to this is if the public are sufficiently spooked by Peters’ continuing refusal to indicate which Bloc he will support, post-election.)
The TV3 Reid Research poll seems to back this up, though it remains to be seen if this burst in support will be reflected in the next (more accurate) Roy Morgan polling.
Regardless, this blogger believes that NZ First will be returned to Parliament, with between 5% to 7% Party Vote.
National will continue to bleed support as Labour and the Greens present a credible alternative to National’s ad hoc spending decisions (giving money to billion dollar corporations whilst cutting back on public services).
Other factors that will impact on National’s poll rating,
- rising mortgage interest rates – estimated to reach 7% to 8%
- rising fuel prices as the global economy picks up, and the demand for oil increases
- a bounce upward in unemployment, as businesses attempt to cut costs by reducing staff
- an on-going shortage of affordable housing
- young New Zealanders forced out of the housing market, due to National’s sign-off on Reserve Bank policies
- continuing wages lagging behind CPI increases
- worsening balance of payments and another credit downgrade by Standard & Poors, Moodies, and/or Fitch
In desperation, expect National to,
- Do deals with Act and the Conservatives
- Cosy up to NZ First
- Engage in more beneficiary-bashing
- Engage in more personal attacks on Labour, Green, ans Mana MPs
- Whaleoil to release nasty ‘dirt’ on various Opposition MPs
- Suddenly find money to spend on worthy public services
- Hint at a further round of tax cuts
Barring any more major screw-ups by Labour (or by the Greens), we are on course (as this blogger has been predicting since 2011) for a change of government.
A personal note to David Cunliffe
Labour’s focus on the “Best Start” policy – whilst flawed at it’s release – was an excellent kick-off to the 2014 Election Campaign. In effect Labour and the Greens have set the agenda for this election.
The economy is no longer an election issue – things are bubbling along nicely, according to media reports.
The so-called economic “boom” will be to National’s undoing, as voters expect more to be spent on education, health, housing, and alleviating chronic child poverty. After six years of demanding “where is the money coming from”, National will find itself with a higher tax-take and then explaining why programmes such as universal food-in-schools is still “unaffordable”.
My strongest advice to David Cunliffe is to follow up on the focus on children. With child poverty a massive millstone around this nation’s collective neck, it is a growing social disaster from which we cannot escape unless addressed.
Please, Mr Cunliffe – announce to the Nation at the next appropriate policy release, that when you lead the next government later this year, that you will take on the role of Minister for Children.
Nothing will send a clearer message to the electorate that you are giving this matter the highest priority.
Nothing.
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References
TV3: 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (12 December 2013)
Latest Roy Morgan poll bad news for National (30 January 2014)
Other Blogs
Robert Guyton: Cobbling together a coalition – Key
The Standard: Latest TV3 poll
The Dim Post: Brief thoughts on the TV3 poll
The Daily Blog: Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen
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= fs =
New Zealand First will go with National.
The only reason for Winston Peters refusal to publicly acknowledge this fact, is that NZF, draws major voter support from many older disillusioned ex-Labour voters still smarting from Labour’s lurch to the extreme Right in the ’80s.
These voters perceive Winston Peters to be the champion of the little man.
These voters need to receive the message loud and clear, “A vote for Winston is a vote for National”.
I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that you’re 100% on the nail, Jenny…
I can tell you right now .
Winston is doing exactly what he said and did in 1996.
What did he do then he went with national.
I dont believe that Winston Peters can support National. I seem to remember that a couple of weeks before the 2011 election the Greens were toying with the idea that ‘under the right conditions’ they could work with National. At the time the Greens were polling about 14% (I think) and NZ First were under 5% and looking like not being returned to parliament. John Key had said he could not work with NZ First.
THe outcome was this:- the suggestion that the Greens could support National under any conditions caused uproar in the Green Party and was quickly rescinded but by then the damage was done. The Green vote fell a couple of points and fortuitously NZ First picked up a handy number of seats which went to the opposition.
So how can Peters support National when he must know that he is only in Parliament at all because the electorate voted for him NOT to support National.
It is clear that the love affair with National is now over and the only way from here is down. The voters will not support any small party that might give its vote to National (so goodbye, Maori Party). If Peters were to say NOW that he will guarantee not to support National, he will not only ensure that NZ First has a place in parliament, he will kill Nation’s chances stone dead.
Chris Trotter is fond of saying that ‘Labour would rather keep control of the losing side than lose control of the winning side.
There may be some truth in this.
When the Labour leader said that the $1.5 billion in “promised” tax cuts for the poor gained by removing GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and the first $5,000 of income would be canceled. To be replaced by “targeted” spending. What he didn’t make clear was that the amount he would release for targeted spending would be only $528 million. A cut of nearly a $billion dollars. Generous? Hardly.
And did David Cunliffe say how much he was going to save canceling actual tax cuts on the rich?
No
And Labour say that they are trying to get the votes of the 800,000 who did not vote in 2011?
Yeah Right!
Rather than have to share power with the Greens, it looks suspiciously like Labour are planning to sit this one out.
What I want to know is when are labour going to get off their butts and seriously consider a tobin tax to get rid of GST.
They wont consider it because its a greens and mana policy and before them it was the alliance’s.
Come on Frank and Bomber start pushing for this tax.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE >
I have a feeling that there’s more policies to come which will make use of the remaining $1 billion. Most parties tend not to release all their policy at once.
A vote for NZ Greens and Mama is our option….both National and Labour have tried to ‘Medicalize’ us out of our own existence as if disabled is no more than a batch of bacteria on a petrie dish..yuk ALL IN THE NAME OF MONEY??
Hope and Vision is not going to be achieved under political parties too intent in trading equality for efficiency..kia kaha
Doug Hay
DLANZ
Mana not Mama
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