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Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll

By   /  February 2, 2014  /  20 Comments

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The bad news of the latest poll by TV3 holds little joy for those wanting to see a change of Government this year.

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The bad news of the latest poll by TV3 holds little joy for those wanting to see a change of Government this year.

The bad news first, and let’s be clear for all the brothers and sisters of the left including every progressive voter in NZ, the latest TV3 Poll making NZ First the king maker is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaad news.

Really, really bad.

It’s bad news because if Winston has the option, he will go with National. He spent all of 2013 assassinating the coalition partners of Key so that National had no choice but to cut a deal with NZ First.

Winston can gain vastly more in terms of baubles from Key than he will ever gain from Labour and the Greens. All Key has to promise is not to sell any more assets and include Winston’s mates in the corporate welfare and you get a 3rd term of National.

Not one NZer should be under any illusion that Winston is going home to National like a prodigal son. If Winston makes 5% the left loses, the right win 3 more years.

The need for Labour, MANA and the Greens to use MMP tactically is more important than ever, because while the risk of a 3rd term of hard right masquerading as lite right is real, the possibility of a truly left wing Government comprising MANA, Greens & Labour is worth everything.

Now here is the good news. In the month of the 2011 election, the 3 News/Reid Research poll took 3 polls over the 3 weeks leading up to the election. Remember, National gained 47.3% on election night. In the first poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 53.3%, in the second poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.3% and in the 3rd poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.8%. They were out by 6%, 3% and 3.5%. Their own margin of error was 3.1%

They were over their own margin of error twice in the month of the election so what the bloody 3 News/Reid Research Poll has to say on any issue is about as dubious as the newsworthiness of changing flags and what coat jackets politicians wear.

270 000 kids in poverty, widening inequality and an economic recipe that rewards corporate welfare and tax cuts for the rich are the issues of 2014, the rest is pap.

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20 Comments

  1. Which is why Labour-Greens-Mana has to build support from the 800,000 who did not vote in 2011 – and from NZ Housing tenants who stand to lose their homes under National’s planned “reviews”.

    If we can ‘grow’ the Party vote by a few percentage points, that will render NZ First irrelevant to the final make-up of Parliament.

  2. Intrinsicvalue says:

    You make some excellent points Martyn. I am obviously not wanting to see a left wing Govt. elected, however in my opinion hell would freeze over before Peters went into coalition with the Greens, or Cunliffe for that matter.

    I still feel a deciding factor could be the electorate seats for the minor parties. Both Act and Peter Dunne can win an electorate seat, whereas that won’t help the left because the Greens are already over the 5%, and likely to stay there.

  3. Traveler says:

    Would asset sales be Winston’s only bottom line?

    On the questioning in Parliament about the TPP, Winston actually has this in common with the Greens, and to a lesser extent, Labour.

    The combined show re: power prices is another consideration also.

    (Thus, is it guaranteed he would side with National?)

  4. Antonia says:

    They have little to no command of the English language, so they copy
    and paste poorly written lists of comments like these:.
    As mentioned immediately above it is so much easier to keep the content you display current or relevant since it is so easy to
    update the site.

    • Jack says:

      Winston is no fool, I sincerely doubt whether he would go with National, i don’t think he can stand John Key and the arrogance the Colonial Clot displays.

      • weka says:

        Here’s the point though Jack. Anyone voting NZF this election risks the left not being able to form govt, because despite any individual feelings about what Peters might do, Peters himself will not commit before the election. If someone is ok with that, if they don’t mind which side forms the govt, then vote NZF. But if we want a left wing govt the only way to get that is to vote Labour or the Greens or Mana.

  5. All is not lost. What will Key’s advisers do next? The FLAG was just a diversion while they were thinking about something new. David’s hamfisted release of Labour policy may actually be good news. National may not show him the respect he deserves and will allow another quick release of policy. David has to learn to do his homework properly Does he have a minder like Helen and David Lange had?

  6. Peter says:

    Well John Key is not that confident, on TV3 tonight talked about “trying to cobble together a coalition”, not exactly confident talk at this stage in the election campaign. A “motley coalition of the right” it would be if he succeeds which hopefully he won’t.

  7. Peter says:

    Well I am pleased you left the Internet Party, which has no website, out of your calculations. Why would any left winger join a political venture with that poser, with his net worth of $200million gained from dubious sources, his outrageously ostentatious lifestyle including palatial property complete with pet giraffes, the pink Cadillacs, Lamborghinis etc and for when he’s really in a hurry the helicopter (which is also handy when he blows half a million on a fireworks display), and his convictions back home for 11 counts of computer fraud, 10 counts of data espionage, insider trading and embezzlement among other offences, and whose first political action in this country was to donate $50,000 to John Banks???

  8. […] The Daily Blog: Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll […]

  9. J.W. says:

    “..the rest is pap.”

    Erghm… Where was climate change and restructuring the economy to deal effectively with the looming death of fossil fuels?

  10. Jenny says:

    The bad news of the latest poll by TV3 holds little joy for those wanting to see a change of Government this year.
    Martyn Bradbury

    This says a lot about the idiots running the Labour Party.

    Over 60% of New Zealanders want the government to do more on climate change.

    When the Labour Party should be
    trying to gain every bit of support they can
    , their leader comes out and says Labour support deep sea oil drilling.

    With one fell swoop Cunliffe could have gathered all this support and at the same time put Winston on the spot over whether he supports Deep Sea Oil drilling or not.

    But no.

    Instead we are left to gaze in sheer wonder at the monumental blockheadedness of the Labour Leadership.

  11. Jenny says:

    The bad news of the latest poll by TV3 holds little joy for those wanting to see a change of Government this year.
    Martyn Bradbury

    This says a lot about the idiots running the Labour Party.

    Over 60% of New Zealanders want the government to do more on climate change.

    When the Labour Party should be trying to gain every bit of support they can, their leader comes out and says Labour support deep sea oil drilling.

    With one fell swoop Cunliffe could have gathered all this support and at the same time put Winston on the spot over whether he supports Deep Sea Oil drilling or not.

    But no.

    Instead we are left to gaze in wonder at the sheer blockheadedness of the Labour Leadership.

  12. Cherie says:

    It will not happen. Greens are, honestly, more interested in just getting as many votes for themselves as possible. If they had thought of that then, Labour would have won Waitakeri again or Auckland Central and goodness wouldn’t that have made a difference in the voting power of the left over the last term. Greens just want more Green list MPs, not a win for the left.

  13. […] The Daily Blog: Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll […]

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