Does Winston want to go home?

By   /   January 22, 2014  /   22 Comments

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As he faces his last election, will Winston want to go home to National, his original political party that he was thrown out of by Jenny Shipley, or would he risk irrelevance in a Labour-Green-MANA grouping?

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It is worth considering that if Winston was in a position to form a Government with National, would Winston ‘go home’ to National to seek the approval of the blue bloods of NZ that he has so desperately craved most of his political life, or would he join a Labour-Green-MANA coalition?

Seeing as NZ First have done all they can to frustrate Green ambitions, the idea that the Greens and NZ First could seriously see out a term as Government seem as likely as MANA and the Conservative Party are at coalition talks.

Throughout 2013, Winston has positioned NZ First to be the only option for National. He took out Peter Dunne, lavished criticism on the Maori Party and has gleefully tortured ACT at every twist and turn. These tactics haven’t been for the political sport of bear baiting, they have been embarked upon so that Key has no option but to consider NZ First. Winston would prefer to be the second largest fish in a pond of Government than a 5th wheel on the Left.

Winston’s quick rebuff of Key’s offer is acknowledgement by NZ First tacticians that the end game of joining National can not be telegraphed too early in the election year as it will rob NZ First of any protest change vote if people think the vote for NZ First is just a vote to prop up Key, so expect Winston to continue to publicly deride the offer. But if the difference between being the Government and not being the Government is Winston, expect Key to shower him in baubles.

Personally, I don’t think NZ First will get over 5% this election, their Lazarus resurrection in 2011 had more to do with Phil Goff’s failure to launch as a leader and the Tea Pot Tape fiasco, now it’s clear Key will talk to NZ First as an option, the anti-Government vote and change vote will go elsewhere.

If Winston does cross the 5% threshold, he will, after a long Prodigal Son journey, want to go home to National on his terms.

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22 Comments

  1. By not declaring his coalition intentions, Peters is effectively insisting that voters trust him…

    Now, what’s wrong with that picture?!

  2. Countryboy says:

    But Isn’t winston peters naught more than a Machiavellian Confederate proving his allegiances by yapping up all but the right tree ? I thought everyone knew this ?

    If the entire crew of Boardwalk Empire mated with the entire crew off Game of Thrones and who then produced a monster child …. ; you can see where I’m going with this .

  3. Geraint Scott says:

    I think you’re totally right on all this.

    Not to be a “grammar nazi” etc, but I’ve always found your use of commas interesting:

    “Personally, I don’t think NZ First will get over 5% this election, their Lazarus resurrection in 2011 had more to do with Phil Goff’s failure to launch as a leader and the Tea Pot Tape fiasco, now it’s clear Key will talk to NZ First as an option, the anti-Government vote and change vote will go elsewhere.”

    My suggestion would be to think of it as though you’re speaking out loud, which would produce this instead:

    “Personally, I don’t think NZ First will get over 5% this election. Their Lazarus resurrection in 2011 had more to do with Phil Goff’s failure to launch as a leader and the Tea Pot Tape fiasco; now it’s clear Key will talk to NZ First as an option, the anti-Government vote and change vote will go elsewhere.”

  4. Tim says:

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  5. Bomber, I disagree with some of your interpretation.

    I mean, let me put it to you this way. Destroying ACT and the Maori Party is something we here in NZF do for i) fun, and ii) because it’s right for the Nation. They are diametrically opposed to our vibe, so we find them repugnant.

    The MANA Party also attempts to take on ACT and the Maori Party, yet you don’t seem to think THAT’s a coalition proposition to the Nats…

    • jenny says:

      Curwen what you are not mentioning, is that Winston Peters has said he will go with the party with the largest single vote. On all polling that party is National.

  6. Jen says:

    Its bloody obvious to me that Peters IS and WILL avoid declaring his alliance to jonkey for fear of losing left leaning votes..God forbid if he gets over the 5% threshold the self serving scum bag!!

  7. Jen says:

    …’for fear of losing left leaning votes.’

    …….Ooops should have said..”for fear of not gaining possible left leaning votes”.

  8. Lily says:

    ‘He took out Peter Dunne, – (glad someone did) – lavished criticism on the Maori Party – (well deserved) – and has gleefully tortured ACT at every twist and turn’. (that was pretty good to watch)

    I like having a bulldog in Parliament.

  9. Or… Winston will take absolute delight in giving JK a middle fingered salute for his treatment of him..

  10. Jenny says:

    That we can rule out NZ First being part of a Left coalition government, is a definite.

    As the crisis deepens and the danger becomes more obvious, the dividing line between political parties will increasingly become where they stand over climate change. The New Zealand First spokesperson for climate change is Winston Peters.

    Until New Zealand First come out and clearly state where they stand on climate change, we can safely count NZF in the conservative camp.

    Nothing is surer.

  11. millsy says:

    I think a NZF/National coalition is entirely possible — think 1996.

    Whether Key will be leading that coalition is another matter.

  12. Toby says:

    I don’t think your overall analysis is wrong or anything, but there’s been a decent amount of co-operation between Greens and NZF, e.g. assets, joint manufacturing inquiry.

    I wouldn’t be so quick to write it off.

  13. Cagey says:

    All the people I know who voted New Zealand First are ex National voters. They are -concervative socialists (? -believe in state intervention, nz jobs of nz folk etc – trad nats) but don’t call it that! – so are also anti Jonkey’s libertarian National govt. I feel maybe Winston could be quite satisfied to be the guy that stopped John getting back in -and then sitting back.

  14. […] The Daily Blog: Does Winston want to go home? […]

  15. Countryboy says:

    Ha . Thanks @ Frank .

  16. Awryly says:

    Winston Peters: Klingmaker
    (to the tune of Good King Wenceslas)

    THEN
    (1996)
    Winston Peters cast around
    Meaning to get even
    O what goodies there abound
    Much to set me beamin’.
    Shall I go to left or right?
    Shall I go at all?
    Shall I play a bashful game?
    And drive them up the wall?

    Give me gold and give me myrrh
    Let me be the Treasurer
    If you don’t I’ll make a fuss –
    yee Xmas turkeys full of trust.
    I’m a leader through and through
    I’m the man that’s good for you
    I’ve a stately vision too –
    and a tube of coalition glue.

    Three years on I aim to be
    Everything you thought of me
    Saving this and salving that
    from the throne on which I sat.
    MMP’s been good to me,
    I’ll be good to MMP,
    ‘Til I abandon MMP,
    Or MMP abandons me.

    LATER
    (1999)
    Some may say I’ve come unstuck
    That’s not my point of view
    My mates conspired to sabotage
    The gluten in my glue
    I’ll be back and when I am
    I’ll contemplate precautions
    To mix, I hope, my members in
    more fortunate proportions.

  17. […] The Daily Blog: Does Winston want to go home? […]

  18. […] one NZer should be under any illusion that Winston is going home to National like a prodigal son. If Winston makes 5% the left loses, the right win 3 more […]


 
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