National + Conservative Party + NZ First + ACT + United Future + Maori Party

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John Key has announced his political partner dance card for this year and it’s one that all progressives should dread.

NZ First have been positioning most of 2013 to be a possible partner for Key post the 2014 election. Winston’s execution of Peter Dunne was driven more by wanting to eliminate Key’s options. NZ First jumped across the 5% threshold last time off the energy of the Tea Pot fiasco and the failure of Phil Goff to fire as a charismatic leader. Now Key has nailed his colours to Winston’s ship, NZ First lose their protest vote opposition role and for that reason I think NZ First will slump under 5%.

The nightmare scenario of Conservative Party-Nationl Government backed by ACT is alive and well and the need for the Maori Party should heighten the need for the Labour Party and MANA Party to sit down and talk turkey over the Maori Electorates. Likewise Peter Dunne shows how important it is for Greens & Labour to negotiate over Ōhariu.

What’s most interesting is Key highlighting the main tactic the Right will use this year when he brands MANA and the Greens as ‘Far left’. This becomes untenable when you consider Key is looking at a hoax moon landing, Chemtrail, child hitting Conservative Party for support. It suggests Key will use the ‘far left’ tactic as long as he can until the electoral chances of the other parties begin to fade and the only hope of a win is hiving East Coast Bays to Colin.

What is most important here is reminding NZ First voters that a vote for Winston is a vote for National.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

15 COMMENTS

  1. You’re correct that Peters has been positioning himself to be a potential Kingmaker. With NZ First fighting for a very similar support base as the Conservatives and much of the protest vote NZ First received in 2011 now being distributed to other parties, it’s going to be very interesting to see how the chips fall.

    Even if ACT, NZ First, Peter Dunne and the Conservatives all miss out National could still govern if enough votes are ‘wasted’ on these smaller parties.

    It is now obvious that only votes for Labour, the Greens and Mana are votes against National and for a new government.

    • A vote for a minor party is NOT a ‘wasted’ vote. A no vote is a wasted vote. By your (il)logic, a vote for the Greens or Mana is a wasted vote.

      • A vote for a party which does not make it into Parliament can be deemed wasted as we don’t have preferential voting but transferable voting. This wouldn’t include the Greens or Mana as they will likely pass the 5% threshold and win a Maori seat respectively.

        • Point taken re. Our electoral system. But I would have also considered a vote for a racist bigoted redneck like Hone to be a wasted vote as well. And as for a vote for the greens, well…….for anyone to consider that a vote for a rag-tag bunch of wanna-be communist social engineers is a vote for social progress, the voter would have to be wasted.

    • “It is now obvious that only votes for Labour, the Greens and Mana are votes against National and for a new government”

      I’ll tautoko that all the way to the elections.

      People have been telling me to vote Labour, and that it’s time to ‘come home’ for Māori and vote red. I actually think that a whitewash victory for Labour in the Māori electorates would work against their overall goal of being in govt. I’m voting for Hone, and I’m sure that if Labour is smart, there will be a deal to give Hone and Sykes two electorates and Labour to take the other five – this would all but end the life of the Māori Party. If Mana polls good, they’ll potentially be giving three seats for the Left.

      The past generation of politics tells us not to write-off Winston, but if he gets to close to the sun he’s going to get burnt.

      It’s about time NZ has an actual Left leaning govt. Labour-Greens-Mana is the way to go.

      My prediction for the seats post-election = Labour 44, Greens, 15, Mana 3 = 62 governing seats for the Left. Only possible though if the Left work together and utilize the MMP system.

  2. I just realised that there is a small, but possible chance that none of these mentioned parties (except National, obviously) will even get into parliament following this years election.

    Unlikely, but possible. How odd would that be.

  3. What is also important is that if any of our current media darlings and journalists are reading this they should start doing their job and asking questions from Key instead of staring dazzled into his possum lights.

    A simple “What do you mean by far left?” or “How do you consider that you are centre when you have… insert one of many very right-wing policies here – eg. charter schools, dismantling of education, warmongering with the US etc etc

    Do our journalists never get embarassed by taking money for jobs they don’t perform?

    • There are two terms honest journalists are going to need to use this year:

      extreme right : ACT and perhaps Conservative
      Social democrat : Labour, Greens, Mana – & Maori if they’ve any sense

      Another term might be useful

      trojan horse: United future, Winston First

      Kimdotcom’s major interest is the internet and not being helicopter raided and thrown in prison. Smart left parties would be happy to understand that geeks can’t be bothered to rule the world. He’d be happy to help us improve the internet – but don’t expect him to resolve every social policy issue. His libertarian instincts run counter to him imposing his views on everyone else. Let him play with the internet and he’ll do good work, try and politicise him & you’ll get cyberterrorism.

  4. Anyone who has seen the recent debt clocks and isn’t concerned about the government’s spending is a moron. For those of you not up with the play, here is the link:

    http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand

    Check it out, and compare NZ with other countries. Then note our economies performance vs. other countries.

    As of this post, the NZ citizen’s share of this debt is $18,416. Do you have that kind of money lying around if we had to pay up? Do you have that amount of money lying around for EVERY person in your household? A family with three children’s share of our debt is a massive $92,000. Would YOU volunteer to help the less fortunate pay their share of our debt? Probably not, because you would be struggling to pay your own share.

    Let the parties not tell us what we want. We need to tell THEM what we want. I would like to vote for a party that not only wants to return to surplus very soon (to be in debt at any point -besides unforeseen natural disasters- is just bad planning and accounting) but wants to LOWER THE NATIONAL DEBT.

    We shouldn’t HAVE to sell our assets. But in the predicament we are in we might just have to. Unless we want to stop spending so much money. Shrink the government (our population hasn’t even hit 5 million yet!). Improve current systems so that they cost less to run (I can think of a handful of government departments that could pull their socks up, saving the country millions). After we have repaid our debts, let the politicians thrash out the best ways to invest/spend our money.

    The party that fits this policy is…….nowhere to be found. So I am looking out on the periphery, the newer parties like conservative have some good policies (but you have to do your own research to find them as they are not reported on in the media), and who knows what Dotcom will come out with….will wait and see! All other parties seem to be more concerned with spending money then they do on saving it. I would consider voting for the left when there IS money to spend. Clean, green, NZ is an awesome idea. Providing healthcare and looking after people is excellent also. But we have to have money first. National have been doing OK considering the natural disasters they have faced, just look at the economy! But it is not enough.

    They say you have to spend money to make money. That is good, but is not guaranteed. What is guaranteed is if you stop spending, you will DEFINITELY save money. Every time.

    • The thing with paying off the national debt, or in fact all debt, is that if you did that then you have no money left. Because in the end (excepting notes and coins, ~2% of the total) all money is actually made out of debt – by the banks. Banks make the money up when they give out a loan, they write down in their (electronic) ledger a debt amount equal to a money value that is then transferred to the customer’s account. This money doesn’t come from other depositors, but is ‘made’ in the ledger on the spot when the loan is granted. When the debt is repaid the money is “destroyed” in the ledger. The interest on the debt isn’t though and that where banks make there mint, so to speak. There is also more debt than money to pay it off, you could say it’s kind of like a ponzi scheme.

      Anyway, if you pay off all of the debt you would have no money to buy stuff with or get paid with.

      There is actually a New Zealand political party out there that has some solutions to the problems you’ve mentioned. It’s called the Democrats for Social Credit, you might want to check them out.

      Alternatively for more info on the way money is made check out the Positive Money movement. There is a New Zealand website, but the UK one is more developed.

  5. The NZ voter is basically uneducated and will vote whichever way the Press and John Key direct them to vote, John Key is a very successful businessman and has steered NZ out of the world economic crisis with flying colours.

    Over a million New Zealanders could not be bothered voting at the last election which basically means they don’t care about what is happening in this country and are happy with the status quo.

    NZ voters get what they deserve!!!

  6. The main message to the public is;

    Don’t vote New Zealand First if you want a change of government.

    The other message is to New Zealand First members, who consider themselves Left or Progressive. If you want to get National out, then you must work to get your party to officially distance itself from National and declare for a Labour led government. If you do not do this, or you are unsuccessful in your attempt, then New Zealand First share of the vote will be decimated.

    Why?

    Left voters do not want National in, and so will not vote for a party which will guarantee that result.

    And most Right voters will just vote National.

    If New Zealand First don’t officially declare against the National Party, New Zealand First has nothing to offer the electorate.

    Left, or Right, or Centre.

  7. Of all the brilliant articles you have written before Bomber, this is sadly not one of them.
    Where is your proof or evidence to show that Winston would be so foolish as to take another deathly dive in the National pool?
    Sounds to me like your just trying to drum up more support for your party of preference Mana rather than getting to the point.
    But if you are correct and this article has more credit than teenage girl gossip, then on election day we all must vote strategically to get NActional out of power.

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