Latest Roy Morgan Poll: next govt too close to call?

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The latest Roy Morgan Poll has a dead tie between National and a Labour-Green coalition. Both are currently polling at 45%.

The actual Party figures are as follows;

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National-led bloc,

National – 45%

Maori Party* – 1.5%

ACT* – 0%

United Future*** – 0%

Translated into National-led Seats:  54 (N) + 1 UF = 55

Labour-led bloc,

Labour – 30.5%

Greens – 14.5%

Mana*** – 1%

Translated into Labour-led Seats: 37 (L) + 18 (G) + 1 = 56

Wild cards,

Conservative Party** – 2% (nil seats)

NZ First – 5% (6 seats)

Number of respondents who refused to name a Party: 4%.

Assuming that,

  1. The Conservatives win no seats nor cross the 5% threshold;
  2. Peter Dunne and Hone Harawira retain their electorate seats but do not win any more, nor increase their Party vote;
  3. ACT loses Epsom and does not cross the 5% threshold;
  4. and the Maori Party lose all three seats;

That leaves NZ First as the “King Maker”. And if, as this blogger suspects, Peters may decide to coalesce with National,  that would create  a repeat of the 1996 Election.

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That coalition deal ended in disaster for Peters And nearly destroyed his Party.

However, things are not quite so simple. Check out the Roy Morgan graph below. Specifically, focus on polling leading up to the 2011 election. Notice how as both Parties campaign, National’s support drops whilst Labour’s rises (1)?

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Roy Morgan 11 december 2013

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In between elections, Opposition parties support falls away. In comparison to nightly media coverage for government ministers and policies, Opposition Parties do not gain similar coverage of their policies. Parties like Labour and the Greens are severely restricted to five-second soundbites.

It was only when Labour and the Greens announced the NZ Power policy on 18 April this year that the Labour and Green Parties rose in the polls (2).

Next year’s election should be no different; Opposition Parties support will rise as their  policies are put before the public, whilst Government support will fall as voters consider alternatives.

This blogger still predicts that we are on course for a change in government next year and we will be looking at a Labour-Green-Mana Coalition government.

Additional to that, I predict;

  1. ACT will not win any seats in Parliament and will eventually suffer the same fate as the Alliance Party,
  2. Peter Dunne will retain his seat by the barest margin. It will be his last term in Parliament,
  3. Paula Bennett will lose her seat but return on the Party List,
  4. National will fare badly in Christchurch’s electorates,
  5. The Conservative Party will not win any seats, electorate or List,
  6. The Maori Party will lose all three current electorate seats, back to Labour,
  7. John Key will resign as National’s leader and the following leadership power-struggle between Judith Collins, Steven Joyce, and Bill English will be brutal. Collins will win, with Cameron Slater throwing nasty dirt at Joyce and English,
  8. If NZ First coalesces with National, expect one or two of it’s MPs to defect or resign from Parliament,
  9. A new Labour-led coalition will govern for three terms, minimum,
  10. Collins will be ousted after a dismal showing by National in 2017, and the Party will pull back to a more moderate, centrist position.It will reassert it’s pledge not to sell any further state assets.

Really, politics is more entertaining than any “reality” show on TV.

And as always, Roy Morgan is the only poll that calls cellphones as well as landlines.

 

* Not expected to survive the 2014 election.

** Not currently represented in Parliament

*** Electorate-based Party only

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References

Roy Morgan Poll – 11 December 2013

Previous related blogposts

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones

Mr Morgan phoned

Another good poll for a LabourGreen government

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua)

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones…

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones

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13 COMMENTS

  1. https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/12/02/unions-climate-change-socialism-2/

    Labour says views on mining close to Govt’s

    NZ Herald July 27, 2012

    Labour’s finance spokesman, David Parker, says his party’s policies on oil, gas and mineral extraction are close to those of the Government.

    “I don’t think we are much different from National,” Parker said. “They’ve continued on with the programme that we started in respect to oil and gas,”

    That was the then, this is now:

    With the difference between the Labour/Green block and National being too close to call, David Cunliffe needs a tie breaker.

    In light of the terrible disaster that has devasted the city of Tacloban, struck by the strongest storm ever recorded in human history, and the thousands of New Zealanders rallying against climate change activities, like deep sea oil drilling, and coal mining, Climate Change is it.

    “A new political dynamic is emerging. Climate change is a winner, not a loser”

    In late breaking news raising Climate Change is no longer “Electoral Kryptonite”.

    http://grist.org/politics/climate-change-no-longer-electoral-kryptonite/

    “How did things go so wrong for a conservative Republican in the coal-rich state of Virginia?”

    On October 7, in a comment I posted on The Standard in the Open Mike. I compared the arguments over the sharp differences opened up over coal, and Labour supporters reluctance to discuss this issue, to Democrat Terry McCauliffes reluctance to talk about coal.

    I wrote:

    “As sharp differences between the Greens and Labour open up over coal, some of the arguments raised here in this debate carry strange echoes of the US political debate over coal.”

    Open Mike comment Oct. 7 2013

    But what do you know?! Two months later to everyone’s surprise, probably none more than senator McAuliffe himself, who felt he had been dogged by a comment made four years ago condemning coal.
    And who had been reluctant to admit to his views on climate change.
    And who only admitted to it when “pressed by a reporter” and “pinned down on the issue”.

    This admission when it was eventually wrung out of him, has proven to be to his advantage after all!!

    Who knew?

    New Zealand polls have been showing a similar thing.

    “People want more action on climate change”

    64.4 per cent wanting Parliament to do more
    60.6 per cent wanting the Prime Minister to do more and
    62.9 per cent saying government officials should do more.

    “The news isn’t good for Prime Minister John Key, with 15.4 per cent saying he’s doing the right amount, 26.1 per cent saying he should do more, and 34.5 per cent saying he should do much more. Just 2.7 per cent want him to do less.”

    Horizon August 10, 2012

    To put some daylight between National and Labour David Cunliffe needs to come out openly, and state clearly and without equivocation, that New Zealand’s biggest ever new coal mine will not be allowed on the Denniston Plateau, (or anywhere else for that matter) under a Labour Greens administration.
    And further: David Cunliffe needs to state, that on taking office all deep sea oil drilling and fracking will be suspended.

    This will see David Cunliffe and the Labour Party garner the votes of that large majority, that polls show, are in favour of government taking more action on climate change.

    • Thanks Frank & Jenny

      Labour have to make a statement if they want any credibility with those campaigning against the oil industry and climate change deniers. To me this is one of the yawning gaps between Labour and the Greens. Has Labour said they will pull the deal on the casino yet, they need to do this also. I hope someone is drawing up a list of things we on the left want, so that Labour can be pinned down prior to the election: child poverty, pokie machines, breakfast in schools, fast food joints, regulating food in schools, spying regulations, industrial legislation, living wage etc.

    • I think Labour will win with real social policy, real education policy, real health policy, real policy that will improve the lives of the majority of NZers – and they are able to successfully promote these policies and the party as being capable of delivering them. They are on the way to this.

      Environmental policy is very important, don’t get me wrong, but bettering the lives of the majority of NZers who are feeling the squeeze, bettering the lives of the quarter of a million children in poverty, this is how to get the majority onside.

      • What will be the leading issue that will define the 2014 elections?

        “Man does not live by bread alone” Mathew verse 4:4

        Everywhere I go people ask my opinion about things that are important to them and ask for my help with problems they’re having, and every day I try to guess what they might want to talk about … and every now and then I get it spectacularly wrong!

        Like last week for example when I was approached on 3 separate occasions by Pacific Islanders, working men, all wearing those high-viz jackets.

        First guy’s a traffic warden out at the airport. He comes over and asks me what MANA is going to do to stop that “spying that’s looking in our homes”. I tell him that we would throw it out and I ask him what his MP is doing about it. He tells me votes Labour but that his MP is a “useless man”, and that he only trusts me (nice chap).

        The next guy’s on a road gang in the city, sees me coming out of a shop and comes over to tell me in heavily accented English that he’s Samoan but he wants to wish me well with the MANA / Maori Party discussions. He has a few not-so-polite words to say about the Maori Party’s relationship with National and tells me to be careful.

        And then on Sunday I’m strolling along at the Avondale fleamarket when this security guy in a high-viz, also with a very strong accent, blows me away with his query … “Hone, can you help me … how important is sustainability?” (Sustainability is the view that because our well-being depends so much on our natural environment, we should ensure that man and nature exist in harmony).

        Hone Harawira Ae Marika November 5, 2013

        Thousands of New Zealanders have rallied against deep sea oil drilling, if this mobilisation continues, the struggle over the environment will become a leading issue, if not the leading issue of the 2014 elections.

        Both Labour and National are reluctant to raise the issue of climate change. National because their record on the environment is so woeful, Labour because currently Labour’s policies are little different*

        This will have to change.

        It is our job to change it.

        Presently leading conservative Labour Party members are trying to actively cover up the fact that Labour and National Party Policies are much the same on coal and oil* and instead have tried to claim that Labour Party policies are more similar to Green Party policies. They have tried to claim that, Green Party and the Labour Party views on mining, are ” remarkably the same” and will censor any other view. Having miserably failed at that, they continue to cowardly abrogate government responsibility and let National and themselves off the hook by trying to shift responsibility onto the individual.

        There is a place for individual responsibility, but what these conservative Labour Party activists are doing, is deliberately ignoring the importance of leadership in shaping society.

        Why would individuals bother when big corporations and government are doing nothing?

        In my opinion the political party that seriously takes up climate change and runs with it, will shape the 2014 elections.

        To not do so will mean the difference between National and the Labour/Green block will stay in the margin of error.

        Taking up the issue of climate change, does not mean ignoring the Left’s traditional issues, but tying the protection of the most vulnerable, to the defence of the climate.

        After all it is the same enemy, that exploits and ruins both.

        Hone’s experiences, related above, inform me that the party that takes up climate issues, will steal the lead from all the other political parties.

        This will require promoting at least some of the following suggested Policies:

        1/ A complete and unconditional ban on Deep Sea Oil Drilling anywhere in the waters of Aotearoa with no exceptions.

        2/ A complete and total ban on fracking on land or at sea anywhere within territorial waters of New Zealand.

        3/ An official recognition of coal as the most dangerous fossil fuel of all, responsible for wrecking the global climate.
        The Green Party official policy is “No New Coals Mines”. Labour too, need to adopt this policy plank.

        4/ Labour agreeing to join with the Greens to implement a just transition for coal mine workers, to jobs that don’t fry the planet.

        * “Labour says views on mining close to Govt’s”
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10822510

  2. “In between elections, Opposition parties support falls away”

    Try telling that to Helen Clark!!

    Your predictions veer between the feasible and the ridiculous
    – Paula Bennett will win Upper Harbour with her eyes closed
    – Maori Party will win at least one seat
    – Bill English will never challenge again for the National Leadership

    I don’t believe NZ First will make the 5% threshold next time around but that remains to be seen.

  3. Great article Frank, and I love the optimism. I do not agree with some of what you have predicted though, even though that is the fun of predictions. Who knows?

    I think that Paula Bennett will go for Upper Harbour and will win, obliterating Colin Craig. If she doesn’t, that will be worse, as Craig will get in there if National step aside, and they will gain coalition seats.

    Also, I am hopeful that some wild cards will come into play at the next election. I would like to see disability issues become an election issue, as 20% of New Zealanders have a disability. If Labour and Green focus on this as they/we are doing, then this vote could add a few percentage points. There are other wildcards potentially open to be played as well.

    I hope that Key resigns and is replaced in Opposition by Collins. If that happens, then to TDB readers I ask to remember this post and return to it…..

    Judith Collins was the Police Minister who stated that she hoped an Autistic Spectrum boy went to prison for a long time with a cellmate. She broke Parliamentary Privilege as MPs are not allowed to speak of Res Judicae (before the Court) cases, and doing so as Police Minister, advocating the crime of rape apparently, will I hope haunt her political career from now on. If she becomes Leader of the National Party, please remind people of this. It is public record.

    I think that the Maori Party and Act could still upset things. It is not over until it is over, as Carmel Sepuloni can attest to. She won Waitakere until the special votes were counted and Bennett got in with a majority of 9. Now Waitakere no longer exists as a seat to fight, and Carmel will be in with Kelston, but Bennett will be in probably with Upper Harbour. *sigh*

    My friends in NZ First are pro Labour coalition in general, which is why they are claiming that we are stealing their ideas. However, they were before the National/NZ First coalition and that did not stop Peters. If Winston goes with National, I think you are right when you say that NZ First will be in revolt. I suspect that some NZ First MPs may indeed resign in disgust if that is still allowed. However, Parliamentary wages and privilege is a lot to give up over a point of principal. People like John Minto and Sue Bradford would do that, but would Taylor or Prosser for example?

    Finally, opinion polls are reflective, but I have seen them wildly innacurate. Pinch of salt time, especially when they are in our favour. Let’s assume that National are set to get in. We can win this, but we have to utilise our vote. We have to get our people out there supporting the progressive left Parties. For myself, assuming I am selected as a candidate (I have been nominated for Labour List so far), I will ask for all the help I can possibly get! We need to find our people and get them to the polling stations. Even if the area would return a pig in a blue (or yellow) rosette like Epsom (and what a pig they returned), the Party vote is still critical this time.

    Get up. Get active. Get votes. Get into Government!

    Kia kaha.

    • Simon,

      “My friends in NZ First are pro Labour coalition in general, which is why they are claiming that we are stealing their ideas.”

      As always, Simon, it’s up the rank and file to keep their respective Parties honest. All the best with that!

  4. 1. ACT will not win any seats in Parliament but will not suffer the same fate as the Alliance Party, having neither Anderton’s administrative talents nor Laila’s loyalty.
    2. Peter Dunne is not even history. This will be his last term in Parliament.
    3. Paula Bennett will lose her seat but return on the diminished Party List, National will fare badly in Christchurch’s electorates – and Auckland’s.
    4.The Conservative Party will win a few list seats.
    5. The Maori Party are toast, Mana will do well out of it.
    6. John Key will resign as National’s leader and his successor, appointed by a board of vice industry funders, will be Steven Joyce. Collins will acquiesce with apparent grace but become increasingly bitter and erratic.
    7. Cameron Slater will suffer a loss of popularity after an ill-judged and vituperative attack on a prominent person, who, as the story unfolds, will prove better rather than worse than the public had thought.
    8. Consolidating their win with substantive progress on housing, jobs, a new and dynamic education policy, the Labour-Green coalition will benefit from the introduction of four year terms in 2021.
    9.Colin Craig, learning the lessons refused by National in 2017, will eclipse that Party with a libertarian approach that insists on honesty and rejects secretive deal making. This will give his party a secure 20-30% of the vote in 2021. He will still refuse to categorically reject the possibility of Chemtrails, Alien visitation, and trickle down economics.
    10. Gerry Brownlee will be kidnapped and forcibly liposuctioned by Red Zone partisans disguised as wild Green terrorists. He will perish during the rescue operation from a heart attack that his kidnappers will insist was caused by a misdirected taser discharge. The police will deny everything.
    11. The GCSB will be disbanded and rebuilt with 10% of it’s current staffing. The funding will go to poverty reduction.
    12. Phil Goff and Winston Peters will become co-ministers of Foreign affairs, and energetic in crafting a new TPPA to replace the failed one, without the objectionable multinational wish list.
    13: Bill English will discover a new vocation in animal husbandry.
    14: Key will return to Langley for reassignment.

  5. The five lines from “assuming that” virtually define the whole discussion. No ACT for Epsom yet but the National candidate would win it.

    Is expecting the Conservatives to win no seats nor cross the 5% threshold too much? There are many months and many undecided people who would be likely to swing behind the Conservatives as an alternative should they have a shade of respectability at election time. A case of “better the devil you don’t know” as a possible lesser of evils.

    The biggest mistake of political planners would be to underestimate the stupidity of voters and their willingness (desperation) to look for any other option to the traditional lot.

  6. It’s certainly going to be one of the most interesting elections for some time. So many variables. Will a National bloc or a Labour bloc get the 1 vote majority? If it’s Labour bloc, what proportion of their MPs will be Greens? What other parties will get an electorate MP or break 5%? A year is a *long* time in politics.

    BTW Frank, I’m not sure why you put UF in the National bloc. Dunne’s entire political strategy is based on backing the winning horse, as he has done every election since he left Labour and formed United with his party-hopping cronies. His electorate is will want to punish him for his staggering hypocrisy throughout the GCSB debacle. If Labour can put up a half-decent candidate who appeals to the conservative Labour constituency of Ohariu (and maybe the Greens campaign only for the list vote there), then like Stuart, I think Dunne’s number is up.

Comments are closed.