Coming to bookshelves for xmas – ‘From Westie to Shore Girl – the urbanization of Paula Bennett’. It’s more masochistic than 50 shades of Grey.
The sudden move by Bennett to pursue the new electorate of Upper Harbour with the Party blessings is being read by some as a sign of how strong a candidate Paula is and how she will be a strong contender.
That’s one reading, another reading is that National strategists have snookered themselves and were scrambling for a response. After publicly flirting with Colin Craig for the last month, the Conservative Party was justified in thinking the warm milo with Colin in the new electorate was a done deal. The reality is Upper Harbour is far more a marginal than National anticipated and if Colin had jumped the gun and announced he was running, it would have ruined any hopes of a new coalition partner.
With Waitakere dismantled into the red fortress of Kelston, Paula needing to go somewhere and blocking Colin from miscalculating ware the driving forces here. This has come about because the electorate isn’t as winnable as National hoped, this is defensive posturing not the machinations of the confident.
Waitakere going has one more impact, it ends the possibility of John Tamihere running for NZ First in that electorate meaning he is worth less political capital for Winston Peters.
The boundary changes are interesting in that they slant the board in favor of Labour, except in Central Auckland where Jacinda Ardern’s chances look grim, but what is of far more consequence is the issue of using MMP tactically and whether the Greens, Labour & MANA can get their acts together and sit down to discuss strategy.
The fact that Colin Craig and the Right openly discuss the possibility of a deal proves that the Right want to win 2014 more than the Left do. This bizarre claim that working within the rules of MMP is somehow cheating democracy by actively encouraging voters to adopt a tactical voting strategy is self-defeating twaddle.
If Colin Craig stands in East Coast Bays, then the Greens and Labour should get over themselves and stand just one candidate and not two, and if the math is still against them, stand no one and encourage voters to vote for the weak National Party candidate.
In the age of social media, these strategies can easily reach voters and their friends and whanau in a way that makes them very powerful tools to change this Government.
That the right understand this and use these tactics without a flicker of conscience suggest the Lefts constant refusal to engage is more churlish than principled.
Labour & Greens could cut deals in a number of electorates where their combined vote beats National, and while there is a $25 000 loss in spending per electorate, the idea that the Greens would reach anywhere near that spending cap seems optimistic in the extreme.
The question is real simple – does the Left want to beat National or not, because the Right are actively engaging to encourage their supporters to vote tactically. The Left are going into this fight with one hand tied behind their back.
It’s time for Cunliffe to have a hangi with Hone and a herbal tea with Metiria & Russell. If they can’t work together before the election, how can they work together after the election?
The ‘hangi’ thing is patronising and cynical. One point missing from the whole discussion is the Kelston electorate. While the right are spinning the changes as being about who wins UH, the left could be celebrating the creation of a strong left seat, maybe likening Kelston to the seat of the future, the place where the 99% kick the kumu of the 1%. Maybe chuck up a name for Keslton, a name that represents a left lead future.
The wider media debate is typical of right wing lead NZ, it’s all about whether it works for the unelected rich white fullas, but who cares about the 30,000 strugglers in Kelston? For the left, there are opportunities here.
So what about the herbal tea?
I couldn’t agree less. You call it tactical and describe it as a strategy to win, but I see this is political parties telling the voters what they have to do with their vote. That’s not how democracy should work. In a democracy, voters should have a choice to vote for whoever they please and not for whoever the clogs in Wellington told them to vote for.
Do you want this Government out?
You’re naive. Tell me, do you think Columbus discovered America?
Voting smart doesn’t decrease your freedom …National getting another term does.
There should be no political interference whatsoever when it comes to vote casting. To do otherwise goes against the principles of democracy.
Is it just me, or is Colin Craig and his Conservative party being overly promoted in mainstream media, as a means of assisting National? Then also, there are the the proposed electoral boundary changes, with the Bennett woman virtually claiming a stake in an electorate seat. Both issues to me, pointing to the influencing process of subliminal manipulation, to engineer a particular result!
As far as the anticipated electoral boundary reforms are concerned, could be someone is orchestrating changing the goal posts to hold on to power!
Do you want this Government out?
Absolutely I do. Done, dusted and gone for good!
I know where you are coming from Martyn and agree with the point you are making and that is (left) voters seeing the opportunities of making the most of their vote to initiate change.
That said, I’m sure most voters of the left are intelligent enough to place their vote with the party and candidate which they feel will benefit the country as a whole and not individual wallets, which seems to be the case with most right wing voters.
Mary_A
Indeed it started with Patrick Gower (that unattractively looking media vulture), when he presented some bizarre “poll” not long ago, which he used as a basis to promote and talk up Colin Craig and his Conservatives.
Here we go again, I thought, and soon enough also TVNZ and others jumped on that bandwagon, focusing so much on Colin Craig.
Even Campbell Live sent one of their journalists shopping with him at Pak’n Save in Albany the other day. So they also gave that peculiar man from up there plenty of airtime, and promoted one of the two supermarket chains in the country.
The media is crap and highly manipulative. I can already see the victory slip from Labour’s hands end of next year, as there are so many powerful players in the mainstream media drumming the drums against Cunliffe, against the Greens, against Labour, against all other in opposition, who could pose a threat to National.
Listen to talk back, and you will find out, listen to breakfast radio shows and you will hear, turn the “current affairs” programs on TV on and you will hear and see it.
While I also prefer “tidy political competition” and true democracy, we do not have the environment to allow it. It is commerce and business that dominate the whole of society AND the media, as they are the ADVERTISERS, the PAYMASTERS of the MSM!
National do their manipulations by helping such ones as Banks into the Epsom seat, by promoting Peter Dunne in certain ways, and they will do the same with Colin Craig, if they see a need to do so.
Hence I fear that Labour may need to consider where to put up a candidate, in some electorates, where Greens or others that are likely to support a government led by them, may have a chance to win a seat. It remains to be seen though, where the Greens will put up candidates, as so far they have really been more of a list party.
I cannot agree more. The whole process of democracy is being run by the supermarkets. Just watch the cooking shows. Where are the vegan mains? Not one. Where are the vegetarian feasts for 500? You may catch a glimpse of some lady in the UK going to a temple which continuously feeds people, but nah, it’s for the meat eaters.
I would never vote for a National candidate just to keep Colin Craig out. Call me old fashioned
Yeah but do you want this government out?
Not enough to vote for a National candidate. Labour bet National for 3 terms under MMP without needing to do this. However it makes more sense to just have one left wing candidate in blue seats but to not have any left wing candidate at all I would find deeply frustrating and not tick a box at all.
I do want them out but I don’t trust Labour anymore either and the other parties on the left are too small and a wasted vote….there is one simple solution and that is to vote Green and keep both the main parties honest with an emerging and bigger Green bloc in the middle of them both and holding the balance.
If you’re not voting tactically, then you may as well not vote at all. This is MMP, its a form of democracy and you can use it however you want.
There is no way in hell I’d give Labour my party vote (that went to Mana), but I did give my local vote to a Labour MP, despite not thinking he was worth voting for…If 58 of the morons in my electorate who voted for the local Green candidate swallowed their idiocracy and voted for the Labour candidate too, then our electorate wouldn’t have suffered under the weight of Key, Brownlee, Bob Parker and Nicky Wagner.
You have no idea the of the struggle in my electorate because the Greens chose to run a loser, and their fans don’t know how to vote.
I don’t expect much from the Greens and Labour, really I don’t, but when you both offer me nothing but a tinkering and then you give National a free ride, that really fucks me off.
Sort your shit out, people’s lives are being ruined
Fatty, you describe the very thing that’s wrong with MMP, but you call it democracy. Mate, get off the grass! What on earth is democratic about a party list? No one on a party list is accountable to voters. It’s the electorate MPs who are the second tier. When someone is high on the party list there is no way to get rid of them. In what Orwellian doublethink is that democratic? As for decent representation in Christchurch Central, don’t make me puke. If anyone can look at the last three years of post-earthquake bull’s wool and say that an elected representative has raised so much as a finger in protest, that person is full of shit or a politician. Either way they’re out to rob you blind, and all you’re voting for is what colour bandit hats the thieves in the beehive wear.
Nic, I said “This is MMP, its a form of democracy and you can use it however you want”
See how I said it was “a form”? I am no fan of parliamentary democracy, especially our current form, and also considering our politically disengaged / drunk(?) society.
I am unsure if you think I was saying we had good political representation in Chch? Because I didn’t, my point was that it has been crap. Lianne Daziel did OK considering what she was up against (and considering she is from Labour). Yani Johanson was alright, but the rest were crap.
You obviously didn’t follow what National have done post-quake in Chch if you think Labour would have done the same…and I made it quite clear I don’t have much respect for Labour.
To be honest Nic, I’m not even sure you read what I wrote, perhaps you were drunk on Friday night at 10.20pm?…and yeah, MMP suxs, blah blah, they’re all the same, token depoliticised moronic drivel, blah, blah…
I’d suggest you learn how MMP works and then you’ll learn how to use the party list process to your advantage
Hear, hear.
As much as I agree on tactical alliances etc. I think a lot of us are guilty of thinking everyone is on social media. Getting the inside story…I think we might be suffering from “seeing some trees and thinking its a forest” the reverse on the old adage.
“In the age of social media, these strategies can easily reach voters and their friends and whanau in a way that makes them very powerful tools to change this Government.”
We spend a lot of time preaching to the choir ,the uptake of newbies joining group etc. is glacial .
Getting political apathy turned around should become a priority for all of us going into the election cycle …800,000 non voters voting would restore democracy to New Zealand ,Key knows it .
So how do we get those 800,000 to turn up on the day ?
more insurance policies (sarc/)
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