Who will cut a deal with MANA first? The Maori Party or Labour?

1. A very interesting situation with a lot at stake for Mana as well as Labour and the Maori Party. What decision Mana makes will determine its long term future as a party. I think they would best not to go in to partnership with either Labour or the Maori party at this election. Neither are good partners for Mana at this stage. Mana has been founded as a party race AND class. To sell out one of these will be like a airplane that loses one wing.

2. In my opinion Mana doesn’t need to compromise with Maori party there is nothing to be gained –Maori Party not running in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti –labour would win anyway unless the Maori party campaigned for Te Hamua with their billboards saying “Vote Te Hamua”. Hone is not vulnerable in Te Tai Tokerau from John Minto’s mayoral campaign he polled very high in the suburbs of Te Tai Tokerau. I can’t see Te Ururoa relinquishing Waiariki in favour of Annette Sykes this seems very unlikely. The only solution is a full merger combining aspects of both Party’s. I agree with Martyn on the biggest challenge facing Mana is it an Indigenous Party based on class or race?

3. Interesting analysis Martyn, and certainly very important for Mana to be considerding.

   ‘have the potential to provide a clean sweep of the Maori Electorates depending on who they end up cutting a deal with’

   This is an ambitious and, dare I say it, very optimistic outlook. Outside of Te Tai Tokerau, Mana is competitive in only a couple of the other Maori seats – Waiariki and Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Even if Mana could get every Labour vote from the last election, it would still lose in these seats, and it is highly unlikely they will be able to do that, especially with the continued rise of the Greens. This isn’t meant to amount to defeatism, but rather to encourage the setting of realistic goals and focusing scare resources on these potentially achievable targets.

   ‘Labour will be hard pushed to meet the cash National will get from corporates and resources that don’t need to be spent on electorates will be welcomed. Tactics that guarantee limiting allies for National while increasing the total math for a majority is a smart decision for a leader who has to win 2014’

   I concur with this, though I’m not sure if Labour will see it that way. Ceding its position in the Maori electorates may have long-term undesireable consequences for Labour, and I suspect they remain strongly motivated to reestablish their dominance of these by undermining the strength of both the Maori Party and Mana.

   In my opinion, Mana would do better to focus on securing Te Tai Tokerau, working hard in the electorates it has a chance (Waiariki and Ikaroa-Rawhiti), and pursuing very strongly the wider party vote. It was desperately close to a 2nd seat last election, and a stronger focus nationally on the party vote could reap good reward. This could be done concurrently with good electorate campaigns.

   • This is an ambitious and, dare I say it, very optimistic outlook. Outside of Te Tai Tokerau, Mana is competitive in only a couple of the other Maori seats – Waiariki and Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Even if Mana could get every Labour vote from the last election, it would still lose in these seats, and it is highly unlikely they will be able to do that, especially with the continued rise of the Greens. This isn’t meant to amount to defeatism, but rather to encourage the setting of realistic goals and focusing scare resources on these potentially achievable targets.

     You misunderstand – a clean sweep as in all Maori electorates would go to the left. There is no rise of the Greens (The greens didn’t increase their % very much even with an amazing candidate like Marama) and a deal between MANA & Labour would curtail Green aspiration in those electorates anyway.

     I concur with this, though I’m not sure if Labour will see it that way. Ceding its position in the Maori electorates may have long-term undesireable consequences for Labour, and I suspect they remain strongly motivated to reestablish their dominance of these by undermining the strength of both the Maori Party and Mana.

     If Labour loses the next election, Cunliffe will be assented by the ABCs, he has to think of a strategy where he wins – or else. Cutting a deal in 2014 with MANA would eliminate MP and gain Labour two extra seats.

     In my opinion, Mana would do better to focus on securing Te Tai Tokerau, working hard in the electorates it has a chance (Waiariki and Ikaroa-Rawhiti), and pursuing very strongly the wider party vote. It was desperately close to a 2nd seat last election, and a stronger focus nationally on the party vote could reap good reward. This could be done concurrently with good electorate campaigns.

     OR it could cut a deal, win those seats you mentioned and either a) give the Left a victory or b) bond with the Maori Party and create an independent maori voice while blunting the Greens at the same time.

     If it doesn’t cut a deal, it can not guarantee any of the outcomes you suggest.

     • Fair points all around really, and I agree that some sort of deal with the Maori Party is desirable (though I don’t agree that a deal between Labour-Mana or MP-Mana would necessarily blunt the Greens, who have shown themselves to have not-insignificant minority support in Maori electorates, with room for further growth).

       I suspect that a merging of Mana and the MP would see a move toward a more conservative, iwi-focused outlook on Maori politics, thus moving closer to a race-based, rather than class-based, party. Mana needs to develop a very clear idea of what it stands for, and develop a strategy on the back of that foundation. This wouldn’t necessarily preclude it from some tactical deals with MP or Labour.

       As it stands currently, Mana is a home for a wide variety of radical (and some not-so-radical) activists of the Maori nationalist / environmentalist / socialist bent. I have respect and support for pretty much all these groups, but Mana can’t be all things to all people. I’m yet to see it clearly articulated as to how Mana is different to the Greens (though I live in hope that it really is).

       • Interesting how outsiders see MANA. I get an inside view and about the only label among your comments that really applies to us is activist, meaning we don’t like the way things are and we want to do whatever we can to change them.

         Early on we decided we are a Movement and not primarily a political party, meaning we don’t progress by making deals but by winning the hearts and minds of the people.

         So go ahead and make your predictions, I don’t really know but I think it’s unlikely many of them will be right because we’re democratic in a way no other political party is. Our decisions don’t come from the top, they’re grass-roots consensus arrived at through full discussion at branch meetings around the country where everyone can have a say. That’s why even though our numbers are still small our support is very dependable. Ever wondered why Hone isn’t often in the House? He attends as many of those meetings as he possibly can because he wants to hear what our rank and file are saying.

         Cheers Martyn, great to meet you at our AGM last April. I think you would have seen some of what I’m talking about in action there.

         • Thanks for the comments, you quite right point out that my views are those of our outsider so it is interesting to get the other perspective. I personally really like the Hone is out and about, because I recognise the limits of parliamentary politics. Not to say nothing can be achieved there, but a focus on the grassroots is an essential part of building a mass movement.

           ‘Early on we decided we are a Movement and not primarily a political party, meaning we don’t progress by making deals but by winning the hearts and minds of the people.’

           I really like this philosophy, and I think it is the right one to pursue, but do you disagree that there is value in reaching an arrangement with Labour/MP in some of the Maori seats? If Mana could get two or three seats in the next election, because of a such a deal, wouldn’t it boost the Movement significantly?

4. Mana is a hybrid party based on Māori nationalism and class that really is still developing month by month. The Māori party did not deliver much of use for most Māori because it excluded a class analysis and chummed up with National and ACT.

   Labour is unlikely to do any deals with either Mana or MP, they are unlikely to do any deals with the Greens either, although it is rather obvious that they should in Ohariu and Waitakere. The chips should fall where they may this time. MP is likely going down. Not being an insider I don’t know what the hell Mana is even talking to them for.

   • I suspect they are talking because Māori don’t want squabbling amongst their people and they don’t want what they perceive as to Māori parties clashing. I am surprised to see someone say it is an indigenous party, well maybe driven firstly by an indigenous motive but it has pakeha standing for it and has a strong focus on poverty / inequality and that encompasses all races in the land of milk and honey.

     Flavell loathes Hone and will never have a bar of them joining up. Get rid of the Māori party is the answer. They got the crumbs from National and nothing else on the table.

   • That’s easy to answer Relic, every week MANA gets dozens of calls from disillusioned Maori Party branch members pleading with us to do whatever we can to make their leaders change their ways fearing that otherwise they won’t survive 2014. We’ve always been willing to talk, it’s Tariana and Te Ururoa who haven’t. Now our two women presidents are trying their hardest to sort out a mess that is likely to harm all Maori if it isn’t resolved.

     Give them space and time, the rift has been deep and painful on both sides as all of us have family in the opposite camp.

5. Waiariki is almost ground zero for 2014 Election. Its the only seat the Maori Party can resonably hold onto and given how close the election will be, 1 seat can make or break a Government. Its is smart to have Labour and Mana sit down to dicuss Annette Sykes (who came second to Flavell) having a clear run.

6. 3 years have progressed and Mana movement has grown from strength to strength –Minto for Mayor and the Ikaroa Rawhiti by-election where the Maori Party came 3rd. Also other factors like Maori party collaborating with national government that is attacking workers’ rights will diminish Maori party support. Te Ururoa was only ahead of Annette Sykes by 1883 votes a very small margin

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