An increase in support for the Labour Party has been recorded in the latest Roy Morgan Poll.
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New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a significant boost to Labour support (37%, up 4.5% since August 26-September 8, 2013) after David Cunliffe was elected as the new Labour Leader two weeks ago. A potential Labour/ Greens alliance (48.5%, up 1%) retains a large lead over John Key’s National Party 42% (up 1%). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1% (unchanged), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
The poll found: support for the Greens has fallen to 11.5% (down 3.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).
The poll predicted that if a General Election were held now a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily win.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large boost to Labour’s support (37%, up 4.5%) after the election of David Cunliffe as the new Labour Leader – now at its highest since Helen Clark was Prime Minister in October 2008. The boost to Labour’s support has come at the expense of fellow Opposition Parties the Greens (11.5%, down 3.5%) and New Zealand First (4.5%, down 2%).
“A potential Labour/Greens alliance (48.5%, up 1%) remains well ahead of National (42%, up 1%) and would form Government if an election were held now. The immediate boost to Labour support provides Cunliffe with a great ‘platform’ to explain why New Zealand electors should vote for Labour again.
“If Cunliffe can enunciate a consistent and concise message of the Labour Party policies and how they will improve the lives of New Zealanders and the country in general over the next 12 months, Cunliffe stands a real chance of being elected as New Zealand’s next Prime Minister at next year’s election.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 934 electors from September 16-29, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.
>> The boost to Labour’s support has come at the expense of fellow Opposition Parties the Greens (11.5%, down 3.5%) and New Zealand First (4.5%, down 2%). <<
On the face of it, this seems to undermine Bomber's claim that Labour can gain votes without taking them from the Greens, but I wouldn't take Morgan's editorializing at face value. There may be other reasons for the apparent dip in the Greens vote (which is, after all, about the size of the margin of error). However, even if it’s true that Labour are picking up some green/left votes, I suspect they will only hold onto them as long as they are seen to be playing nice with Greens, and likely to form a respectful coalition with them after the next election.
Hopefully a constructive relationship between Labour and the Greens will start pulling in those undecided voters too!
This poll also matches up almost exactly with the last Herald DigiPoll, which shows that the Herald one wasn’t just a fluke. While this poll does show Labour gaining at the expense of the Greens (and probably NZ First too), that was to be expected once Labour gained a stronger leader, particularly one who does appear to hold the values of the left.
When you take into account the typical poll bias, the true difference between Labour and National is probably no more than 1-3%, which really confirms that Labour is now a strong opposition to National. And once you throw in the Greens, the left-bloc is the clear winner. The question is, can they hold this up for 12 more months? Keeping in mind that National has several election bribes waiting, no doubt (fortunately, no major sporting events to distract from the issue though).
No – the drop in the Green vote is a margin of error change and so means very little if nothing. Also the Herald poll showed the Greens getting an increase as it was the highest the Greens have ever polled as the Herald poll always underestimates the percentage.
What you have to look at are the trends. National is trending down, Labour is trending up and the Greens are flat on about a 12.5% average.
Now the interesting thing is that the Greens always start to poll higher in an election but have always lost support mid-term. This time the support for the Greens has increased mid-term which has not been seen before. I am not sure what this means but I am guessing that the Green vote is firming up. The other thing to note is that the Greens are most people’s second choice party vote, so if you don’t like your current team then you move to your second choice. How that will play out is anyone’s guess.
That’s basically what I meant when I mentioned the shift from the Greens (and possibly NZ First) to Labour. I didn’t mean the Green supporters swinging towards Labour, more so the former Labour voters who had switched to the Greens (because Labour really wasn’t meeting their expectations) going back to Labour after they began to look like a credible Government. The swing between the two parties has been there for a long time, however, so it’s not too significant.
Of course, as you’ve said, it’s the long-term trends that you really have to look at. Those trends show National slowly heading down in the polls, Labour slowly heading up, while the Greens and NZ First remain about constant. In the last two elections, the Greens have polled relatively constant throughout the leadup before having an increase just before the election (at the expense of both Labour and National).
If all those trends continue, we could be looking at a large win for the left bloc at the next election. But, as usual this certainly isn’t the time for complacency.
It was always going to happen, my wife was a labour voter of chronometric regularity but switched to Green in the face of Labour’s seeming inability to carry a coherent line of opposition in a climate where the Government were literally handing them live ammunition. Since Cunliffe’s arrival as leader though I believe she’ll revert. Me, on the other hand, green as a Waiheke bud.
…and if Cunliffe takes ” a step to the right” as the election approaches, no doubt your wife will seriously consider flipping back to the Greens for the same reason she did last time.
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