NZ First’s current maneuvering to the right as National’s only possible coalition partner comes with barbs. Winston’s savaging of GCSB legislation has increased, not decreased when he announced that the NZ Police were considering seizing his phone records in response to the nonsense of the Epsom Tea Pot Tape fiasco.
Winston doesn’t want to play third wheel in a Green/Labour Government and the Greens would want to resist allowing Labour to use NZ First as a brake pedal for their policy platform.
It’s a Mexican stand off between a plate of nachos and two tacos.
The problem for NZ First is that they are ostensibly a protest vote Party. A weak Labour Party and the Epsom Tea Tapes gave Winston the momentum last time, but if NZ First are perceived as possibly propping up John Key, then he could well sink beneath the 5% threshold and be gone.
So what to do?
John Tamihere’s attempt to re-enter Labour seem to have faded. The Labour Party never forget (unless it’s in regards to their neoliberal 80s) and never forgive. Tamihere’s sins were compounded by his total lack of humility, and while Labour are desperate for blue collar cred, they would see his re-emergence into the Party as a win for the right wing faction at a time when Labour loyalists are desperate to see the Party step to the left.
So where do all of Tamihere’s unrealized political aspirations dissipate to? The smart money would be on NZ First. Tamihere would make the perfect deputy of the Party and would cement in place a possible replacement as leader when Winston finally does stand down. Tamihere could also stand in Waitakere and in a 4 way race could have a real chance of winning. If Tamihere won the electorate, NZ First wouldn’t need to be reliant on the 5% threshold either.
Tamihere would inoculate NZ First from the perception they would enter into a coalition deal with National and keep the protest vote base happy as well. The predictable coalition would be palatable to the NZ First voters after the fact because the thought of Peters & Tamihere barking at Key’s ankles is Christmas come early for many.
Waitakere man may well have the last laugh, and Labour could be left grinding their teeth.
Is this just idle speculation or do you know something we don’t? Someone like Tamihere is likely to have crossed WP far too many times (both inside Parliament and as a “political commentator”) to be credibly useful to him now.
Succession-wise, WP needs undamaged goods and fresh young faces like Brendan Horan… oops, wait a minute…
Yeah right. there’s a greater chance of dogshit smelling like roses than Tamihere joining NZ First.
Anything is possible in politics – who would have believed Winston would go with Natz 2006 with all that bad blood flowing for years – so lets not rule out Martyn thinking outside the square throwing around a few possibles v probables. Once upon a time it was possible to vote in an MMP election with little or no surprises, not any more, takes constant conversations with like minded people to work out how to vote strategically these days and so it shall come to pass in 2014.
Is someone trying to write a Down The List episode needs more sexism, duty free cigars and old spice references to be honest
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