A smart vote for Mana and Labour

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Mana’s strong showing in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election is a major victory for all working people.
Coming a strong second and pushing the Maori Party into third place has provoked a crisis in the Maori Party that could prove terminal.

This has happened because in the words of Mana leader Hone Harawira “Mana is what the Maori Party was supposed to be – the independent voice for Maori, the fighter for te pani me te rawakore (the poor and the dispossessed.”

Increasingly the contest in the Maori seats will be between Labour and the Mana Movement. I want to explain why I think that this is of benefit to the broader labour movement (including, paradoxically, the Labour Party).

Working people want to defeat the National Government. It has presided over growing unemployment and inequality and its policies are designed to ensure that process continues unabated.

Unfortunately it remains relatively high in the polls. The next election is not certain. Luckily its current coalition partners (Maori, Act and United Future) are in terminal decline. Preventing their entry into parliament will make the chance of defeating National that much greater.

Labour is still languishing in the polls. But the combined vote of Labour and the Greens makes the “opposition” a credible alternative. When they have combined to offer a policy that challenges the status-quo even modestly seriously (like energy prising or housing) – the policies prove very popular.

The wild card is New Zealand First. Winston Peters tries to come across as and anti-establishment candidate who defends the welfare state and opposes asset sales. But a significant part of his appeal is the only half-concealed racism directed against immigrants. He went with National after the 1996 election when there was a hung parliament with the excuse that a coalition of Labour, NZ First and the Greens would be too unwieldy. He could well make the same claim if he was in the same position at the next election. Alternatively he could tell Labour he would form a government with them only if it excluded the Greens.
It is in the interests of both Labour and the Greens to ensure that does not happen.

Mana holds Te Tai Tokerau and its deputy leader Annette Sykes came a close second in in the seat of Te Ururoa Flavell – the new leader to be of the Maori Party. If he fails to win his seat it would spell the end of the Maori Party. If he keeps his seat he could also possibly bring in a few other MP’s if the Maori Party was to get 2-3% of the vote. They are also potential allies for National.

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Mana however will never go to National. If they were to hold Te Tai Tokerau and take Flavell’s seat they would be adding at least two seats to the broader left. The added bonus is that these would be seats that wouldn’t be deducted from Labour or the Green’s total which would be determined by their party vote. It may even be possible that Mana could bring in one or two extras from a list vote of 2-3% – which is a possibility given a continuing Maori Party decline.

A smart campaign option would be for the Green’s and Labour to essentially run a list vote campaign in these two seats even if they have candidates. This would help ensure a bigger number of seats going to the anti-National coalition and neutralise the possibility of Winston Peters being the king maker.
Once the job of ejecting this government has been accomplished Mana and Labour can return to the job of competing for who is the best representative of the poor and oppressed in this country.

Long-term under a proportional system all major parties need allies. One of the great strategic errors of Helen Clark’s government was helping Jim Anderton destroy the Alliance Party on the Labour Party’s left. Middle class voters could go to the Green’s but that party is unlikely to ever appeal to disillusioned working class voters. They are more likely to go to New Zealand First (which will never be a reliable ally of the left) or even National. Working people need a voice that is truly one of the poor and oppressed and today that is Mana.

5 COMMENTS

  1. I agree with your view on Mana – but a big part of me thinks Labour have lost it. Not just on a slimy self serving career politicians level lost it – but they have lost themselves into factionalism and given away core values. They seem tethered to the beast of liberalism in all the wrong ways – they contradict themselves and fight each other openly.

    They have forgotten that no matter what – working people want a decent life, a hard life is fine, but not to hard – but most of all, a life with opportunity for there kids. Labour is no longer capable of producing that opportunity – National and there brethren are only interested in self-interest. It falls to Mana and the Greens to offer that to people – offer them a little hope and vision for a change.

  2. Mike wrote:
    >> Middle class voters could go to the Green’s but that party is unlikely to ever appeal to disillusioned working class voters. <<

    The Greens have consistently done more to champion issues that matter to workers than Labour or any other party currently in parliament. I get so sick of hearing this tired old "Greens = middle class" song. I used to hear it from Socialist Workers when the Greens first got into parliament, and the SW were still advising workers to vote Labour "with no illusions"?!?

    I wish Mana all the best, and I'd love to see more of their party list shaking things up in parliament. But even if you do well in 2014, you will probably have more MPs through winning Māori seats than through the party list, and radical voters would do just as well to give their party vote to another emerging party like the Pirates, or if they want to play it safe, give it to the Greens.

  3. Sounds like a good plan to me. It’s all about being strategic. Time for a Labour Green Mana coalition where everyone gets a decent standard of living, not just the privileged few.

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