THE IDEA has been around for some time. In 2008, ONE News’ Political Editor, Guyon Espiner, tried it out on the New Zealand public. Now the Prime Minister has raised it again. What am I talking about? The idea that the political party which gets the most votes has a “moral mandate” to govern.
“If National was to go out there and poll 46 per cent or 47 per cent – very similar to the result in 2011 – and not form the Government I think there would be outrage in NZ,” was how the Prime Minister explained the idea to journalists on Monday.
This, in essence, was the proposition Mr Espiner enunciated five years ago.
On Sunday, 26 October 2008, ONE News’ Political Editor informed his viewers that more than two-thirds of voters had answered “yes” to the question: “Should the party that wins the most votes get to lead the government?” Armed with this emphatic response, he went on to editorialise: “The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll suggests there will be a backlash if Labour comes a distant second to National but still forms a multi-party coalition.”
A backlash whipped up by ONE News, perhaps?
As if this full-scale attack on the New Zealand constitution wasn’t enough mischief for one “news” bulletin, TVNZ then invited its viewers to participate in a “phone-in” poll on whether or not MMP should be retained as New Zealand’s electoral system.
Do you begin to see the outlines of a plot here?
I certainly did and wrote a ferocious letter to TVNZ’s head of News and Current Affairs, Anthony Flannery:
“For TVNZ to place the enormous power of the television medium behind this naked attempt to rule the governing party out of contention as a competitor for executive office is not only an egregious abrogation of its Charter, but also an open and extremely dangerous attack on democracy itself.
“Compounding this extraordinary breach of broadcasting ethics, you then sanctioned a “phone-in” poll on whether or not MMP should be retained as New Zealand’s electoral system.
“The linking of the manufactured lead-story on ONE News with a scientifically meaningless phone-in poll on MMP, points very suggestively to the network’s apparent intention to not only frustrate the incumbent government’s campaign to secure re-election, but to a broader and much more sinister agenda targeting the nation’s electoral system.
“Your own, Mr Espiner’s, and the Network’s motivation for sanctioning and facilitating this attack remains a mystery, but there is no doubt in my mind that New Zealanders should now treat TVNZ as a “hostile witness” against the Labour-led Government.
“That being the case, I cannot in good conscience sign the contract you have sent me.
“I will not be part of any right-wing, media-driven attempt to have every Labour, Green, Maori Party, NZ First, and Progressive vote discounted.”
The contract I refused to sign was the one TVNZ had sent out to all its “Election Night” commentary team. (Not surprisingly, perhaps, TVNZ has never sent me another!)
Fortunately for, well, all of us really, no “backlash” was required in 2008. The National Party not only won the most votes, but it was also able to secure the support of a majority of the members of the House of Representatives – the constitutional pre-requisite to being invited to form a government.
It was the same in 2011 – although it was a lot closer than many New Zealanders, looking only at the National Party’s remarkable 47.3 percent of the Party Votes cast, realized. If an additional 50,000 votes had been cast for National’s opponents, then determining who should form the next government would have been a much trickier proposition.
With the 2014 General Election now just sixteen months away, National is worried. Act and United Future (assuming it can be re-registered) will likely bring nothing to the table but their rather tarnished leaders. The Maori Party, similarly, teeters on the brink of political oblivion. National’s list of allies grows thin.
Small wonder then, that, once again, we hear the beating of the “Moral Mandate” drum.
“In the end it’s in the hands of the New Zealand public,” says the Prime Minister, “we’ll see how things pan out.
“But it’s been a funny thing. Ever since we’ve had MMP in 1996 the public have had a way of finding the Government that they want.
“It’s always been formed with the largest political party, so all of those things might not hold true in 2014 but they equally might.”
There’s the marker. The political line which all of the National Party’s supporters are now expected to follow. The tradition – even under MMP – is that the party with the largest number of votes must be regarded as the “Government Presumptive”.
And, just in case, there’s any doubt, the Prime Minister spelled it out even more concrete terms.
“It’s not impossible we get 50 per cent [of the vote], it’s not impossible we get a couple of partners we work with, it’s not impossible political parties abstain. That is always possible to allow the largest party to run a minority government.”
In the end, it will come down to the Governor-General, Jerry Mateparae. His actions will be guided by precedent and tradition – but they will also be driven by what he considers to be the consensus of informed and credible opinion.
Bluntly, that boils down to editorials printed in the major daily newspapers, and the opinions of ‘respectable’ and ‘credible’ citizens interviewed on radio and television. That, and the sort of opinion polls that the young Mr Espiner commissioned from Colmar Brunton in 2008.
If the Government’s supporters can construct a powerful consensus within the New Zealand political class that even a minority National Government (albeit one within spitting distance of an outright majority) would serve the country’s long-term interests more effectively than one dependent on the support of individuals who would struggle to get a security clearance, then the Governor-General might just instruct his friend, John Key, to remain in office until such time as he loses a Vote of Confidence or Supply.
The Opposition parties would thus find themselves forced to bring Key’s government down with a Vote of No Confidence. Once achieved, they would then have to hope that the Governor-General issued the expected invitation to the Leader of the Opposition to attempt to form a government. I say “hope” because, under sufficient pressure from ‘responsible’ public opinion, he might opt to dissolve Parliament and force a new election.
I’m assuming here that John Key doesn’t simply advise his friend, Jerry Mateparae, to prorogue Parliament in the interests of political and economic stability. No, don’t scoff. Something very similar happened in Canada in 2008 when the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, reasonably sure he was about to lose the confidence of the Canadian House of Commons, advised the Governor-General of Canada, Michaelle Jean, to prorogue Parliament. And that’s exactly what she did – over the vehement objections of practically every reputable Canadian jurist.
Why did the Governor-General decline to be guided by constitutional precedent and tradition? Because the right-wing Canadian press and electronic media argued with even greater vehemence than the country’s lawyers and judges that, as the largest party in the House of Commons, Harper’s Conservatives had been given a “moral mandate” to govern.
When Canada eventually went to the polls, Harper was returned with a comfortable parliamentary majority.
I have a strong suspicion that the GG could be counted on to do the Right thing. He doesn’t exactly come from a background where democratic instincts were ever valued, but slavish obedience to American interests certainly is. It would be a constitutional coup with support from the American and British Embassies, and I think it can happen here. Maybe it would even be a good thing and wake a few of us from our slumbers, our dreams where we believe we live in Godzone and bad things only happen in other countries. Maybe.
While the “Moral Mandate” will be what John Key claims, what will give him the power to actually accept it is our pacifism. His biggest weapon is that this is not Egypt.
The mainstream media, which includes TVNZ, same as TV3 and their moderators and “commentators” make me vomit. The same applies to much of almost exclusively privately owned and run radio broadcasting. I have noticed that over recent years more government friendly ones have been fronting shows. Even the ones critical of Key and his government tend to mostly tow the line and not ask the too hard questions. Investigative journalism is almost dead. The print media are under pressure due to losing advertising revenue, they have cut staff and will likely sack more in years to come.
The New Zealand Herald only employs a few journalists now, who challenge the government on policies, conduct and so forth.
Commentators like Tapu Misa have been replaced by such as Rodney Hide and Bob Jones. Hide can write the most nonsensical commentaries and gets away with it. Jones also often displays his arrogant, right wing views, and gets his weekly space.
As for Espiner, we know where he moved to, now fronting a sensationalising current affairs show on TV3. Forget objectivity and balance. Garner has his own Radio Live show and usually openly favours Key and the government. Sean Plunket, who once said on his new Radio Live talk back show, that he only got a job with former employer Radio NZ, because then PM Bolger wanted him to, also openly rubbishes the opposition parties, especially the Greens.
Look at ZB and the picture is little different.
Online media replicates what print editions publish, in a condensed form, offering more lack of balance.
So yes, it is a great worry, how senior journalists and commentators add the spin to stuff that Key and his ministers say.
It certainly does not mean that the party getting the most votes under 50 per cent has a “moral right” to form a government. If more votes go to the opposition, and if the opposition can get the numbers to form a government, they have the same moral right to be government, as they would represent the majority.
The only difference is that a coalition or support arranged government like that could perhaps prove to be a little unstable. But it is majorities that count.
If we would not constantly be presented with also somewhat biased poll results (shutting out the poll participants who support neither party), also usually done via landline phones, the public many be able to develope more independent views. But always getting more or less the same fed to them by the media commissioning the polls, those considering voting opposition and smaller parties will feel discouraged to even bother voting.
I see an agenda here, and a government catering for business lobbies, and representing a “pay your servants and followers” line (where journalists are reminded to not bite the hand that feeds them), has a weighted advantage under present conditions, where we have hardly any independent, e.g. public, and accountable media left in New Zealand.
One of NZ’s top political journalists still struggles with the basics of MMP. Hardly surprising, guess he’s happy to fill his pockets on the mediaworks gravy-train.
Espiner reminds me of a monkey the way he throws his shit at us with his lame 20/20 rehash. Sensationalist heart-tugging tabloid fodder…just another brain-dead waste of time. No structural analysis, no deep and wide ranging opinions, no critiques of social norms, no desire to use his opportunity to create meaningful change…nothing to offer.
What’s on next week? – probably a real life paedogeddon on the Beast of Blenheim.
Espiner is good for moral panics, but moral panics are only good for dumbing down society.
On trusting Governor Generals, two words: Gough Whitlam.
Tony B Liar managed to govern when he got 36% of the vote on a 55% turnout, i.e. about 1 in 5 Britons supported him.
It really makes no difference who governs at this late stage in the game. They’re all liars. They’re all psychotic sociopaths. They are all part of problem 1% who are the major obstacle to genuine progress anywhere in the western world.
The money system is on its last legs. The economy is imploding. The energy system is in decline. Environmental collapsed is upon us. And nobody even discusses any of it, let alone do anything about any of it.
To have a moral mandate, surely you should first actually have morals….?
One should not underestimate the shear rabidness of the right wing vote in New Zealand. They have the potential to get in a really ugly mood if they feel they have been robbed of their right to have their leader as Prime Minister. I think John Key understands this.
@ Fatty . You are correct in your views here , in my humble opinion . However , if Espiner only offers up ‘ brain fart ‘ journalism as Martyn Bradbury might say then perhaps there are only brain farts out there to report . After all , if a journalist invents news then reports it , that’s generally frowned upon .
Have you talked to the Hoi Palloi lately ? Honestly , the general public are dumb as clay . Not only are they feeble minded and generally dull but their over-all general knowledge is embarrassingly poor to say the least . And if you talk politics to them ? It’s like whispering to them in a language from across the galaxy .
And from the amateur polls I’ve taken from tourists here , the general opinion is that we’re quaint , trusting , open , friendly and stupid .
Arab Spring ? The Kiwi Spring would be something ya put in tha low rider aye ?
Sweet !
I’ve been saying for quite some time now that things , you know ? General Things , need to get even tougher . Did I hear correctly on Three News this morning ( Read , God Only Knows News ) that homelessness as increased by 280 % since 2008 ?
The fancy Warbling Woman reading that out cooed ‘ Awww yes , ‘ tch ‘ . As if the reasons for that [ homelessness ] were beyond her comprehension . Well , maybe they were . Maybe she was so dumb she couldn’t see the poverty for all them starving , homeless people ?
Don’t underestimate how stupid people can be . Jonky and his minions don’t .
That’s how they do what they do to us .
Seen the excellent TV series on ‘ Dynamo the Magician ‘ ? Ok . Think a politically orientated version of him fed to us via TV . Oh ! Wait ? That’s Nigel Latta isn’t it ?
The best hope we have for our long term survival and to be able to flourish in our beautiful Land unmolested by reptilian Corporate interests is here . In the hands of the likes of The Daily Blog and Tumeke .
Kim DotCom isn’t the beacon of hope . It’s you guys . You’re the ones doing the hard work , leading the charge and more than likely without remuneration or at least with minimal returns . How many writers here are multi-millionaires ? Not many , if any .
Lots of good points within comments here. In regard to Country Boy’s comment about the hoi polloi: engaging on the topic of politics with friends, family, and folks you meet can confirm ones suspicions about the apathy and ignorance those folks have about the very people, those in power, who shape their daily lives. Here are just some WTF exchanges I’ve had recently:
Me: “Oh no! the super cheap hairdresser I went to gave me a Paula Bennett hairdo!!”
Non voting friend “Whose Paula Bennett?”
Discussing food prices with a stranger at queue in supermarket. Stranger told me life story and it was a difficult one, with much financial hardship.
Me:”how about they scrap GST off food, for starters, that would make it much more affordable”
Lady in queue “I don’t see how that would help”
Me: “Well, it is 15% so it would make a real difference”
Lady “oh, is it really?”
Me: “What are your thoughts on child poverty in NZ?”
Family member who lives in million dollar villa ” We don’t have child poverty in NZ. Thats a Labour Party invention. It’s not like we live in India or anything”.
Sigh.
It’s always darkest before the dawn, but people are much more aware, concerned, and willing to act than some of the more-progressive-than-thou comments here recognise. Who would have predicted before Occupy that hundreds of kiwis would hit the streets for weeks in an attempt to overcome that isolation, and participate in real democracy? Not me. The corporate PR machine is churning at full gear to keep us all feeling isolated and cynical about each other. Don’t buy into it!
For goodness sake, not much else to add, considering the article and the concurring comments
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