If there is a by-election in Ohariu who will punch Labour for losing Charles Chauvel?

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Will there be a by-election in Ohariu? It is highly unlikely that the Privileges Committee are going to crucify Dunne, even if David Carter does allow the issue to get that far, so from the mechanics of Parliament, I think Dunne is safe.

What will motivate Dunne to step down will be if Winston wants to ram the kill home and starts releasing salacious bits of the emails he claims to have. Winston’s motives here are to be the only eligible coalition partner for Key and if it means humiliating Dunne with anything that can be construed as unprofessional with the journalist in question, that will be the leaverage that will motivate Dunne to step down.

Key could plead as much as he likes for Dunne to remain, but with Winston wanting all possible options for Key limited, what National wants might not have a hell of a lot to do with this.

If Peter Dunne steps down, it will be a dreadful drain on Labour Party resources that are already drained from the massive effort they are putting on in Ikaroa-Rawhiti. If the opposition were serious about challenging National for the seat, Labour & Greens would HAVE to cut a deal to only enter one candidate.

Who would stand?

If the excellent challenge by Marama Davidson in Ikaroa-Rawhiti ends up consuming Labour Party vote, the Labour Party may not be all that happy to discuss such a compromise, but they may have to consider stepping aside to allow Gareth Hughes a clear run for it. With Charles Chauvel forced out because he was in Team Cunliffe deciding to leave on his own volition to move to the UN, there is no natural candidate for the electorate should it go to a by-election.

Oh the irony that would generate.

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So – by-election if Winston has the emails.

6 COMMENTS

  1. What’s really sad about this whole depressing Peter Dunne saga is the staggering identity of who actually leaked the emails to Winston Peters.

  2. Gareth Hughes could not win in Ohariu. Even the far more centrist Chauvel couldn’t win a straight left/right fight: he was only ever in with a chance because (obviously) of the split in the right wing vote that Shanks+Dunne caused. There’d be no point for Labour to stand aside for Hughes.

    • Yep, Hughes is a good MP but would have no show in an Ohariu by-election. Honestly National should probably force Dunne out to install one of their in there instead, it is one of the few electorates in Wellington they could win.

  3. I reckon Gareth Hughes should stand aside in Ohariu and in return Grant Robertson should stand aside for whom ever the Green candidate is this time in Welly Central. After all Labour did come in third behind the Greens in Wellington 🙂

  4. So – by-election if Winston has the emails.

    Something quite odd about Winston and those emails. On Campbell Live tonight, John Campbell pointedly asked Winston if he had the emails. Winston was thouroughly evasive and refused to answer with a straight ‘yes’.

    Considing Winston’s categorical “yes” and “no’s” to other questions surrounding Dunne, his obfuscation and evasion indicated that he doesn’t have the emails.

    Strange stuff.

    But we’ll know soon enough.

    Another thought that crops up…

    Has anyone wondered who leaked information to David Shearer about the supposed video of John Key in the GCSB staffroom? http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/893204296-exclusive–labour-s-gcsb-leak-revealed

    Questions, questions…

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