Source: Mana Movement – Press Release/Statement:


Te Hamua Nikora

“So much for all the talk about this being a Labour Party seat” said MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira. “If the polls mean anything then the Ikaroa-Rawhiti race is wide open, with Te Hamua out in front by a long way”.

“Radio Waatea ran a poll that put Te Hamua on 53% and the Labour candidate on less than 10%. He’s ahead on the Radio Ngati Porou poll, he’s ahead in the Gisborne Herald poll, and he’s ahead on all the Facebook polls as well”.

“And for those who aren’t into polls, I can also report that over the weekend, our people door-knocked more than 1,000 houses and support for Te Hamua was more than 70%”.

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“People can be sceptical of polls and door-knocking exercises, but the evidence is pretty overwhelming”.

“Te Hamua is more than just a candidate in this race. He’s the clear leader with the others struggling to match his support in the polls and on the streets”.

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  1. I’ve spent a fair chunk of the morning sifting through numbers on tedious lists, and posted the following on; The Standard Open Mike, while waiting for the frost to thaw. To make it seem less like indolence, I thought I’d copy it over here where it seems relevant. I hope this isn’t trangressing the kaupapa of either blog:

    With the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election coming up, I thought I’d check to see how the Maori roll count compares with the general roll. The last time I did this was off 2005 election results, and had to be calculated by hand (I’ve probably still got the pages of working around somewhere – in one of many old boxes of uni papers that I’m never going to sort through, but haven’t yet discarded). After an hour of eye-glazing percentage calculation, this morning I found the following page on the electionresults site: 2011 Election stats. I really wish I’d found it earlier.

    To outline the main points: 2.19% of maori roll votes were designated informal in 2011, compared to 0.80% of the general roll, or in other words; a maori vote is 2.7 times more likely to be regarded as informal than a general vote (which is why I stay on the general roll). Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is the worst maori electorate for informality at 2.51%, compared with 0.43% for Epsom; the least informality on the general roll – 5.8 times more likely!

    It’s even worse for special votes; 17% of maori roll special votes were disallowed in 2011. So my advice for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti voters is to make sure you are enrolled to vote, and don’t cast a special ballot. Party organizers should also make sure they have reliable observers at every vote count.

    Not sure what I’m doing wrong with the link it’s supposed to connect to: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/e9/html/e9_part9_1.html

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