A current shock Roy Morgan poll predicts a change in government, if the results are carried through to the next general election.
The poll results are as follows;
National: 41% (down 3%)
Labour: 35% (up 3%)
Greens: Greens (12% – unchanged)
NZ First: New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%)
Conservative Party: 2.5% (up 1%)
Maori Party: 2% (unchanged)
ACT: 0.5% (down 1%)
United Future: 0.5% (unchanged)
Mana Party: 0.5% (down 0.5%)
A Labour-Green Bloc together would win 47% of the Party Vote – beating National’s 41%.
Acknowledgment: Roy Morgan
What makes this poll stand out above recent television and Fairfax-IPSOS polls are;
- The poll results appear more realistic in terms in terms of negative public sentiment to National’s policies,
- Roy Morgan polling has been more consistent,
- The polling takes into account respondents contacted via cellphone – a major criticism of other polls which only contact landlines.
- The figure of 41% echoes a comment made by National Party supporter and right-wing commentator, Matthew Hooten, on Citizen A on 16 May.
The fact that polling is including respondents who may rely solely cellphones gives Roy Morgan an added advantage over other pollsters, who only call land-lines.
As Statistics NZ tabulates it’s recent census data, we will soon have a better understanding of how many households rely solely on cellphones, with an absence of landlines. (See related blogpost: Census, Surveys, and Cellphones)
As well, note Matthew’s comment at 27.15, where he says,
“The impact of gay marriage. The private polling by the major parties shows both National and Labour sharply down. National in one private poll has a poll number with a ‘3’ in front of it…”
His ‘slip’ (?) and reference to “a poll number with a ‘3’ in front of it” backs up Roy Morgan’s poll results perfectly.
The National Party hierarchy must be fully aware that the TV and Fairfax polls are inflated and unrealistic. Which is one reason why the Nats recently ‘caved’ to public pressure and implemented a restricted ‘Claytons‘ food-in-schools programme.
National’s support of State provision for feeding children came as a bizarre after-thought to the main Budget, and it could only have occurred if massive public pressure had been brought to bear. This kind of socialised service provision does not come naturally to a right wing Party like National.
Keep an eye on future Roy Morgan polls.
We are witnessing the inexorable decline of one government – as the next, government-in-waiting, prepares to take the reins.
However, one Big Question remains: what will a new, left-wing, Labour-Green government do, once in power? For a further viewpoint on this vexing issue, read Morgan Godfery’s blogpost; What the left can learn from Lusk.
Do we unpick and wind back neo-liberalism? Or should we be content merely to ‘contain’ it?
NZ Power was a good start and received favourable support from the electorate. But that is only a start.
After thirty years of failed neo-liberalism, and with around 270,00 children living in poverty, there is much work to do.
The rebuild of Christchurch is under way.
The re-build of New Zealand is yet to begin.
Previous related blogposts
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