Both TV Polls have been wrong (37% of people know that)

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shesgotyoureyes_t

I’ve made this point before about the 3 News/Reid Research Poll, but it seems that it is needed to be made again.

Last nights TVNZ/Colmar Brunton Poll showing the Greens and Labour have the numbers to be the Government compared to the 3 News/Reid Research Poll which showed Key can govern alone are two very different results, and that’s because the 3 News/Reid Research Poll is gin soaked bullshit wrapped in a napkin of subjective crap.

Let’s base the 3 News/Reid Research Poll on it’s last 3 weekly polls leading into the 2011 election.

In the first poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 53.3%, in the second poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.3% and in the 3rd poll 3 News/Reid Research gave National 50.8%.

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In the month of the 2011 election, the 3 News/Reid Research Poll was out by 6%, 3% and 3.5%. Their own margin of error was 3.1%.

They were outside their own margin of error twice??? In the month of the election??? Why or why sweet Zombie Jesus do any of us care what the bloody 3 News/Reid Research Poll has to say on any issue?

Not that Colmar Brunton was much better. Over the same period of the 2011 election, they over represented National Party voting support by 54%, 53% and 50%! They over represented National Party support by 6.7%, 5.7% and 2.7%!

These Polls with their landline bias are misrepresenting the support for National and that misrepresentation generates the apathetic belief that an individuals vote won’t matter so those citizens don’t bother voting, and that’s why 2011 was the worst voter turn out in a century.

Free market media has little interest in telling you the truth. These polls aren’t educated guesses, they are white noise.

[poll id=”29″]

7 COMMENTS

  1. Colmar Brunton is consistently wrong, and being so it is pretty useful. It consistently gives the Right a bonus of about 2.5 points of support.

    There’s damage done along the way, of course. The last election was a cliffhanger, but was portrayed as anything but, and CB’s consistent failure might’ve affected the election result.

    OTOH, the Reid Research poll is broken; it has all the forecasting potential of 3am drunk Englishman contemplating his team’s prospect’s in the next FIFA World Cup moving from exhilerating certainty to catastophic, and realistic, despair.

  2. “Not that Colmar Brunton was much better. Over the same period of the 2011 election, they over represented National Party voting support by 54%, 53% and 50%! They over represented National Party support by 6.7%, 5.7% and 2.7%!”

    So what you’re saying is that Labour/Greens coalition is EVEN more popular than the majority Colmar Brunton is suggesting? Or do you think their shit polls swing both ways, i.e. that National still may well be ahead? Anyway, I’m liking the very idea that NZ’s love affair MAY finally be over. I predicted a few years ago that Key may well go on to become the most unpopular Prime Minister NZ has ever had. It just takes a while for people to wake up is all.

  3. How are survey respondents selected for these polls and how random or how specific is the selection process?

  4. Free market media has little interest in telling you the truth.

    And that goes double for politicians, teachers, and local govt, but then that is exactly what the general dumb public want, so we are all stupid and ignorant … but happy, we are a nation of Ren and Stimpys “happy happy joy joy”
    Even SpongeBob Square Pants shows more intelligence than most of the GDP
    The previous governments have perfected turning the remotely intelligent peasants into ignorant, compliant, selfish, fucking fools.
    We can’t even shit right. http://www.squattypotty.com/

  5. The Roy Morgan poll just a few days before the other two polls shows

    National 40.5% (-3.5)
    Labour 35.5% (+1)
    Greens 13.5% (+0.5)
    New Zealand First 5% (+2)
    Maori Party 2% (0.5)
    Conservatives 1.5% (+0.5)
    Mana 0.5% (-)
    ACT 0.5% (-)
    United Future 0.5% (-0.5)
    Others 0.5%

    Go figure.

  6. I cannot figure out why people are so interested in speculation about who is going to screw them next time.

    Surely it’s enough to know you are going to be skewed and barbequed whichever party forms the next government.

    Maybe some people are still so deluded they think there is a difference between the major parties.

Comments are closed.