Labour Party Coup Watch

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Team Shearer (14)
David Shearer, Phil Goff, Annette King, Trevor Mallard, David Parker, Clayton Cosgrove, Shane Jones, Damien O’Connor, Darien Fenton, Kris Fa’afoi, Ross Robertson, Carol Beaumont, Maryan Street, Ruth Dyson.

The Young and The Restless (9)
Grant Robertson, Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins, Phil Twyford, Clare Curran, Megan Woods, Ian Lees-Galloway, David Clark, Andrew Little.

Cunliffe’s People (11)
David Cunliffe, Lianne Dalziel, Moana Mackey, Nanaia Mahuta, Louisa Wall, Sue Moroney, Parekura Horomia, Rajen Prasad, Rino Tirikatene, Su’a William Sio, Raymond Huo.

color Chart

We need a color coded chart to measure any leadership coup risk in the Labour Party. No challenger in their right mind would attempt a leadership tilt without at least 18months lead in to the 2014 election so if there is going to be a challenge in Labour it will have to occur before or by June of this year.

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The Young and the Restless team are looking at Shearer’s continued lackluster performance and are getting nervous, there are even a few in Team Shearer are already sniffing the air for a wind shift.

Shearer still seems to have no gut instinct as to who he is actually pitching Labour’s message to. On any given issue he can’t make a clear counter statement. He won’t say if he will or wont buy back assets and can’t say if he would or wouldn’t give Rio Tinto more corporate welfare.

David Shearer doesn’t seem to have a position on anything, politically he is the anti-Kama Sutra.

At some stage Robertson is going to have to realize someone has to get stabbed and make that call to Cunliffe.

The forgotten UN bank account has the possibility of destabilizing Shearer’s leadership and blunting Labour’s attack on Key’s own brain fades.

Robertson’s natural caution however wouldn’t be enough to excite the 800 000 odd enrolled voters who didn’t bother to vote, he would need Cunliffe in Finance with Russel Norman as associate to spark imagination.

Robertson as leader with Jacinda as Deputy and Cunliffe in Finance could be the team that wins Labour the Government but that phone call has until June to happen.

Past June they are simply saddled with Shearer come hell or high water

I’d put the current color coded risk of coup at blue.

16 COMMENTS

  1. You just are not reading this right.
    Rovertson for Leader will lose Labour more votes than Shearer.
    David Cunliffe is the man for job and has as much support from non-Labour supporters as from within

  2. It is still a white labour, tethered to neo-liberalism. No change, they need something more – and I don’t think they have the courage, nor the will to do that. I pick Grant will call late, and get an engage signal.

  3. Labour must change leader, David Shearer just does not cut it and hard to see how he can excite the electorate sufficiently to win the next election.
    Since the last election this government has gone from one crisis to another that should be cannon fodder for a strong opposition, Shearer and Labour have failed to capitalise on Nationals ineptitude , callousness and arrogance.
    National are likely to win the next election if Shearer leads Labour into the next election, as much as I hate to conceded this but I fail to believe that Shearer will be able to stand up to Key’s onslaught during leaders debates during election time.
    Key and his government should be polling poorly and doomed to defeat at the next election, the fact that Key and his party are still polling well has to be down to Shearer’s inability to connect and excite the electorate.
    The Labour Caucus need to get over their internal fighting and present a united party capable of regaining the Treasury bench, currently they appear to be disjointed , disloyal to each other and unlikely to win 2014 or 2017.
    The prospect of another three or six years of Key and his wicked henchmen/women is a frightening prospect for low and middle income earners and even more frightening for beneficiaries.
    New Zealanders who believe in social justice need to see a light at the end of this long dark tunnel, at the moment the light is getting dimmer.

  4. NONE of those appeal! Why oh why can’t NZLP actually make a clear, definite statement that separates them from the Tories. To paraphrase Mike Williams, ex party president, “Tory-lite”. Shearer is toast but the lack of principle, belief and the depth of mindless sycophancy within the party has destroyed it. And only the Greens benefit. So many long-standing Labourites are leaving in search of credible belief and presentation and they are looking o the Greens to find it. Without this change NZLP will become politically irrelevent, and with this change they may do so anyway.

    • “So many long standing Labourites are leaving in search of credible belief and presentation and they are looking to the Greens to find it”.
      Yep, I’m one of them. How many others reading this are in the same boat? Next election will be first that I won’t be party voting Labour. I desperately want to see change in their leadership, and want them boot National, Banks and Dunne out at the next election but I have to be honest, the love has gone, for the reasons you point to above. Really, who do they represent?

      • Who do they {Labour Party leadership] represent?

        They represent the interests of global corporations and money-lenders, and will always put the interests of global corporations and money-lenders ahead of the welfare of the people of NZ The obvious term that comes to mind is bought-and-paid-for.

        Under normal circumstances such people would be described as traitors or fifth columnists. And since the agenda of corporations and money-lenders ultimately results in an uninhabitable planet, we really should be describing party leadership as criminals.

        Unfortunately, the dumbed-down masses seem to have lost the ability to think or make ANY connections, so they dutifully keep voting for dysfunction.

        You said it yourself…. that you have only recently abandoned Labour, yet they have been in the enemy camp since the mid-1980s.

        • Afewknowthetruth: It’s a kind of bold and insulting statement that you make that connects those have have been previous Labour Party voters to “the dumbed down masses”. Its not that black and white either. While it might be clear you that Labour became a party driven by free market lust in the 80’s and subsequently changed our society into one that was, and still is divisive and unfair it may not be clear to the younger generations becoming involved in social justice work over the last few decades. They may have had an affinity to what Labour previously represented,or at least tried to portray, as the left is traditionally connected to promoting social equity. I’m talking about ordinary folk doing extraordinary work. Once were Labour voters and members so to speak.

          Others have commented that Labour is a dying party. If so, hopefully there is a drift to the Greens and Mana, who maybe more representative of the needs of our society and environment. Whether you like it or not its a mass of ordinary people that make change happen. Yes they need to be empowered with knowledge, but slagging folks off as dumbed down isn’t really helpful. If you really want to see dumbed down, turn on the telly, or listen to talkback.

  5. You need a ‘purple’ denoting CATASROPHIC. It would denote a bitch fight taking place somewhere in upper Cuba Street whereby the ‘in-crowd’ and the ‘in-the-know’ are openly conducting a street brawl adjudicated by a lady who’d be better off trying to knock a Wade-Brown off her perch. There’d be ‘The Fan Club’ on one side of the road, and the truly disaffected on the other

  6. OOO! I love your colour coded chart! Lets hope it gets to red, right at the top, before June. That’s not too far away and if there really is a chance of a coup then I feel a glimmer of hope for our future. If theres no change then we’re doomed.

    I’m not saying that Labour under another leader is our saviour but it would a base upon which we could rebuild. We need more votes going to The Greens and Mana so we can have the the benefit of their influence in the next government.

    • I like the thought of the right fracturing into conservative fragments and the Greens and Mana taking Labour on as junior coalition member.
      Maybe that way NZ can steer a bit away from big rich aspirations and towards some of the more treasured parts of our culture.

  7. Cunliffe, Cunliffe Cunliffe. Oh and did I mention David Cunliffe. The petty sneering desperation by the brain dead right wing hacks who populate NZ’z media, directed at Cunliffe, speaks volumes about how fucking scared they are of this man. He is competent, financially literate and articulate and sincere enough to connect with all of Nz.
    The same sneering denigration was directed at Helen Clark for most of her time in opposition. And what a rampnt overachiever she was.

    • Couldn’t agree more, Shona!!! Time for self-serving beltway Labour MP’s to clear out!! The hatred of Cunliffe which seems far stronger than a desire to be in Govt, is clearly based on petty jealousy. Grant Robertson may be competent but he has ZERO charisma, and Labour came third in the party vote in his electorate, which doesn’t show him to have great personal popularity. Cunliffe, on the other hand, increases his majority every election even though his electorate has really become a National one through boundary changes!!!Robertson just doesn’t have the right look or sound or gravitas and class to be a Prime Minister. Cunliffe is head and shoulders above all other Labour MP’s and it’s about time they accepted the fact, and elected him as leader. National Party supporters are clearly very frightened of this prospect, which SHOULD have Labour MPs itching to make him leader. Why not? Personal career advancement. Obviously their own personal ambitions have made them oblivious to the suffering out there among their electorates!! And they wonder why 800,000 people didn’t vote last time??

  8. A plague on all of your houses!

    I am going to vote for Mana.

    Harawira is no more of a dangerous idiot than any one of the leaders of other parties.

    If Mana gain traction they have to develop and grow it.
    Harawira will have to develop and grow up. (I am an optimist)

    Possibly a wasted vote but so would be a vote for the others both National and Labour are train wrecks. The Elfin Greens keep singing sweet songs. Sigh!

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