2% GDP – Mungo no understand – NZ Economists promised us green shoots of recovery because Trump solved Iran???
GDP up 0.2%, latest figures show – but Kiwis are worse off than they were in 2023, says Labour
An uplift in construction boosted economic activity in the three months to June, bucking the trend among industries affected by the Middle East conflict and associated fuel crisis.
But according to Labour, Kiwis are worse off now than they were in 2023, with real GDP per person down by more than $1000 since then.
Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of economic activity, increased 0.2% in the three months to June, with the largest contributor a 2.7% lift in construction, Stats NZ figures show.
Stuff
So a dead cat bounce, where you screw the economy up so badly, the rebound looks slightly less awful.
Luxon’s response?
Cry me a river…
…he’s sorted.
What our charm handicapped Prime Minister accidentally stammered is the truth.
If you are wealthy, the Economy is great…
…if you are poor, you are bottom feeders.
You will remember all the NZEconomists were singing that the green shoots of recovery were finally here.
They have been singing this song for 4 years now because they aren’t objective observers, they are cheerleaders for capitalism who see their job as lubricating the animal spirits.
Here’s the hapless Liam Dann listing them all…
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman: “New Zealand’s economic recovery has most likely resumed.”
- New Zealand Institute of Economic Research senior economist Ting Huang: “Cautious recovery resumes as fuel prices ease.”
- ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner: “Data this week painted a picture of an economy that continues to recover.”
- Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr: “New Zealand’s recovery is underway.”
- Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold: “Despite a rocky few months, the recovery is resuming, and the outlook is encouraging.”
- ASB senior economist Mark Smith: “The recovery is expected to strengthen and broaden.”
- BMI (a unit of Fitch Solutions): “The recovery appears to have resumed after weakness earlier in the year, supported by robust export performance and resilient demand from trading partners.”
- BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich: “New Zealand’s economic recovery is gaining real traction.”
- S&P Ratings analyst Anthony Walker: “New Zealand’s economic growth outlook is improving after a tepid period”.
- Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon: “New Zealand’s economic recovery advanced further in the June 2026 quarter, despite headwinds from the Iran War.”
… there are 2 problems with all this cheerleading.
1 – Not one of these reports models the impact of the looming Godzilla El Niño making them all works of vacant optimism.
2 – They all believe that Trump has solved the illegal Iranian war that he has blundered into and the inflation won’t be so bad.
Ok.
Well.
1 – The Godzilla El Niño will chew our economy and spit it out and if your modelling doesn’t even attempt to acknowledge that it is a joke.
2 – Trump has utterly lost control of the situation in Ira and the market is finally accepting that with oil prices skyrocketing and Bond Markets going into open revolt….
New Zealand bond yields hit highest level since November 2023 as oil prices surge
New Zealand Government bond yields are at multi-year highs after a spike in oil prices and renewed concerns about America’s fiscal position sent shudders through the world’s financial markets.
By late afternoon, local 10-year bond yields had gained 15 basis points from Thursday’s close to trade at 5.03% – their highest point since since November 2023 – after taking the lead from major markets.
Brent crude oil – the international benchmark – shot up to US$109 a barrel after Houthi rebels seized a port in Yemen and Saudi Arabia reported a cut in its oil production.
In the US, the influential 30-year Treasury bond hit 5.37% – its highest point since 2007 – flying in the face of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress rates in that part of the curve.
The US 10-year – a benchmark for international borrowing costs – gained 11 basis points to 4.95%.
Adding fuel to market turmoil was US President Donald Trump’s plan to pay voters US$5000 each if Republicans retain control of Congress at November’s midterm elections.
Moves in US Treasuries were mirrored in the other major bond markets around the world, coinciding with the European Central Bank lifting rates to 2.5%.
Local markets were trying to “calibrate” to overnight moves, ANZ senior strategist David Croy said.
NZ Herald
…Mungo no understand?
The NZ Economists told us Trump had solved the Iran issue and that there wouldn’t be much impact on the Economy and yet here we are with Trump failing and there being more damage to the economy.
Our Economists are NOT objective, they are cheerleaders for the animal spirits of capitalism.
Independent Media is more important than ever, especially in the lead up to the Election. TDB is the largest Left Wing Blog in NZ and we have been operating for 13 years. We get zero funding from NZonAir and we don’t have no rich backers. If you can donate please do so here or directly into our account –12-3065-0133561-56
” How our captured economy is choking our progress ”
Bernard Hickey
It will be tough to unshackle this major part of our economy, along with other captured sectors such as electricity, gas, banking and insurance, without proper reform of our lobbying and political disclosure regimes, as author Max Rashbrooke points out in the interview above on his report with Lisa Marriott about lobbying published last Thursday..
Dr Bryce Edwards of the Democracy Project captured the moment with clarity in his commentary on the 2025 NBR Rich List:
‘We have to face a sobering reality: New Zealand’s economic and political system is showing signs of capture by a wealthy elite. The Rich List, in all its glossy detail, is a warning sign. It reveals a stark power imbalance that should concern anyone who cares about egalitarianism, fairness, or the integrity of our democracy.’
Yet instead of confronting this reality, the political establishment offers voters a choice between different managers of the same oligarchic order. National promises more cuts, more deregulation, more tax relief for the wealthy. Labour promises gentler language and slower cuts, but ultimately defends the same economic model. ACT and NZ First offer reactionary distractions. The Greens will tag along behind Labour. And TOP, despite its recent rise, has not shown any willingness to confront entrenched power.
Faced with such a narrow spectrum of options, it is no wonder that more than 800,000 New Zealanders will simply not vote. They are not apathetic; they are alienated. They see clearly that the ballot box is offering them a choice between representatives of the same elite interests. When democracy becomes a performance rather than a vehicle for change, disengagement becomes a rational response.
The political class will wring its hands about low turnout. Commentators will lament the decline of civic engagement. But the blame lies squarely with a system that has ceased to represent the public.
The RNZ-Reid poll is not just a snapshot of public opinion. It is a verdict on a political system that has failed its people. And unless a genuine alternative emerges — one willing to challenge the oligarchic order rather than manage it — the crisis of representation will deepen, turnout will fall further, and the gulf between the public and the political class will widen.
New Zealanders want change. The tragedy is that none of the parties seeking their votes are prepared to deliver it.
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/how-nzs-captured-economy-is-eroding
https://nzagainstthecurrent.blogspot.com/2026/07/new-zelands-economic-crisis-is-also.html
Labour announce policy to better regulate the food wholesaler cartel.
https://www.youtube.com/live/T2L8ruSexbA
May be Arena Williams policy will increase competition and reduce prices 5 or 10 percent. Good on her.
Go further Labour, Stop Taxing Food, both actions to bring the cost of food down by 25 to 30%.
NO GST ON FOOD!
NO GST ON KAI!
If GDP per capita is down and we are all $1000 poorer than in 2023 how can that be fixed quick smart? How can demand and production be stimulated?
The average cost of groceries per person per week is $130. If GST is removed from goceries that will make every man women & child $880 better off. A family of four $3500 better off. Maori Pati are the only party with this policy.
How can Labour and Greens or any party think its ok to tax food and force 600,000 people per month to food banks.
If in govt are Barbara Edmonds and Chloe Swarbrick going to stand outside paknsave and take 15% of the food out the shopping trolley of the working poor, the beneficiaires and the mortgage stressed middle class just like Nicola Willis does?
NO GST ON FOOD!
NO GST ON KAI!
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth.
Lucy Parsons
However hard the ‘Wishful Thinking’ economists try, they can’t produce a “miracle”. It’s just all spin and brainwashing to support the failed RW CoC! Our NZ economy has to improve hugely and fair taxation will assist those who have been so cruelly pushed to the limit. Great for the smug ‘sorted’ folk out there who have no comprehension as to how difficult it has been for what Luxon calls the ‘bottom-feeders’, who are in fact becoming more impoverished and destitute by the day! Our economists have their heads so deep in the sand some can’t or don’t wish to see how bad it is out there. Unless they have a magic wand nothing will change? Time for our economists to be realistic and honest with the public. Trump has not solved the Iran issue; one he should NEVER have started in the first place! GDP may look promising but the stats show that there is actually NO improvement whatsoever. Wages have fallen; rates, power, insurance have all increased by more than 20% in the last two years and it’s actually getting worse. Another term of this failed CoC will see NZ slip completely down the slope. Is that what you all want? Liam Dann’s dream list is farcical – I have no respect for him now at all! Have any of you factored in El Nino etc. if not then you are truly naive and stupid?
Economists are the new alchemists.
They sit in air conditioned splendour high above the mire, fancy name plate on their desks and like little Davy they all have soft hands in spite of being avid gardeners seeing green shoots everywhere. After a long day of meetings and lunches, producing nothing of measurable value they retreat to their leafy enclaves in Kohi or Cremorne Street to enjoy a relaxing evening with Hermione and Topher and Libby and Gynsen.
Sorted.