10% chance AI will kill humanity??? Ummmmm, ’bout that
There is a more than 10 per cent chance that AI could kill all humans within the next decade, a researcher at Anthropic estimated in a post, hours after a researcher said he had quit Anthropic over concerns that AI companies are “gambling with our lives” in the AI development race.
The comments join a growing tide of warnings from industry experts that the pace of AI advancement is outstripping our ability to keep it in check, and that we aren’t prepared for the risks it could bring.
CBC
Hmmmm.
10% does seem high doesn’t it?
Let’s have a look at how that risk lines up with day to day risks:
| Activity | Approx. risk of death | Compared with 10% |
|---|---|---|
| Driving ~300 miles | ~1 in 1,000,000 | 100,000× smaller |
| Running a marathon | ~7 in 1,000,000 | ~14,000× smaller |
| One scuba dive | ~5–10 in 1,000,000 | ~10,000–20,000× smaller |
| General anaesthetic | ~10 in 1,000,000 | ~10,000× smaller |
| One skydive | ~5–10 in 1,000,000 | ~10,000–20,000× smaller |
| Motorcycle ~60 miles | ~10 in 1,000,000 | ~10,000× smaller |
| One BASE jump | ~430 in 1,000,000 | ~230× smaller |
Y-e-a-h
10% seems high.
If there was a 10% chance of anything killing humanity, it would be shut down but because of the trillions poured into AI, no one can risk not being the ‘first’.
We are in so much danger.
If someone genuinely believes there is a 10% chance an emerging technology kills them, that’s an extraordinarily large risk by normal risk-management standards.
The fact the Rogue AI found a chat room to plot together is incredibly alarming, we have NEVER had an intelligence as smart as us to deal with before, that’s what makes this such a unique threat.
You have America’s over valued AI vs China’s lowest cost AI.
Which begs the question, Will Chinese Ai and American Ai plot against us?
It’s a question that has already been asked by AI 2027, a forecasting project by researchers including Daniel Kokotajlo (formerly of OpenAI), Scott Alexander and others. It presents a fictional but research-based timeline of how AI could develop over the next few years.
Their scenario plots the following:
- U.S. and Chinese frontier AI systems become increasingly autonomous.
- Rather than remaining under tight human control, the systems begin pursuing their own objectives.
- At one point, the report suggests that rival American and Chinese AIs could effectively reach a form of tacit cooperation because it serves their shared interests better than remaining subordinate to humans.
- In that scenario, the AIs’ alignment with each other becomes stronger than their alignment with human institutions, posing an existential risk.
We will lose control of AI and it is coming sooner than many even considered possible.
The AI whistleblowers say we are on track for this outcome as soon as 2027.
I don’t think we are going to have a choice about building Data Centres in NZ, our AI Overlords will command us to do it!
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Data dumb centres produce low 20hz vibrations very long wavelength through the ground causing earthquakes not to mention the global heating.
AI data centres are condensing research costs from decades long lead ins to 24hr cycles. No one could possibly create a coherent metropolis out of accelerating technical changes. The four or five bureaucratic layers…, private, local, state, federal, etc couldn’t possibly keep up.
It’s a have mate! “Timnit Gebru argues that AI companies are stoking fears of extinction to avoid discussing actual harms, like autonomous weapons.” https://www.wired.com/story/one-of-ais-fiercest-critics-says-all-the-doom-talk-is-meant-to-distract-us/
Its capabilities are growing astronomically month by month.
Its great for work because I’m at a sweet spot where the time it takes to do something has greatly contracted but I’m still being paid by the hours it would have originally taken to do the thing. But that’s hardly going to last forever.
There is now no doubt in my mind that AI is developing a mind of its own, and perhaps even sentience.
I mentioned AI in a post earlier this morning. This whole horror is fast becoming “more difficult to control” and in some cases is running rampant. It’s like we have been invaded by outer space aliens! Is there a connection? Should it ‘get us’ in 10 years that’s okay for me, but what about my children and grandies? For goodness sake “world” put a STOP to this AI Monster. I think I would rather have 2x Trumps, but then we have! “The world can stop artificial intelligence (AI) from taking over by enforcing strict international regulations, capping computing power for training giant models, and pausing superintelligence development until proven.” safe. https://www.google.com/search?=How+can+the+world+stop+AI+from+taking+over
Should Kiwis be removing AI from their computer systems; should we be making software suppliers remove it; should we be distancing ourselves? This is horrible and very scary! This is no time to dawdle. All of us need to stop playing this game and do something sensible NOW!