1 on 1 in 10: Cameron Bagrie Warns NZ’s Old Economic Model Is OVER
Economist Cameron Bagrie warns New Zealand is entering a profound economic transition as inflation rises, geopolitical tensions intensify, house prices stagnate and the economic model Kiwis relied upon for decades begins to break down.
In this week’s 1 on 1 in 10, Martyn speaks with Bagrie about New Zealand’s shift from the “Great Moderation” to the “Great Transition” — and why the next 20 years could look very different from the last 30.
With global tensions rising between the United States and China, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, inflation hitting households, further OCR increases being predicted and economic insecurity driving populist politics, what does all this mean for ordinary New Zealanders?
Bagrie argues that New Zealand’s traditional economic model of “selling more expensive houses to each other” is over, and that the country must instead confront productivity, infrastructure, taxation, public services and a changing global economy.
In this interview:
• Cameron Bagrie on the New Zealand economy
• Inflation and the cost of living
• Possible OCR and interest-rate rises
• The “Great Moderation” vs the “Great Transition”
• China vs America in the Pacific
• The Strait of Hormuz and global energy prices
• New Zealand’s dependence on China
• House prices and household wealth
• Unemployment and business liquidations
• Government debt and fiscal policy
• Productivity and New Zealand’s future economy
• The rise of populism and “promise-me-nomics”
• Election 2026 and National’s economic challenge
• Christopher Luxon’s political problems
Is New Zealand prepared for an economy where rising house prices, cheap global trade and mass immigration can no longer be relied upon to generate prosperity?
Watch the full interview and join the discussion.
