Last election, many of us interpreted the huge spike in early voting as a sure sign that New Zealanders were rushing to throw John Key out after the Dirty Politics scandal and mass surveillance lies.
We. Were, 1000%. Wrong.
People (mostly the middle classes) with property rushed to protect their untaxed speculation, it had nothing to do with what was revealed with dirty politics and the mass surveillance lies, it was middle class property speculators protecting their investment in the National Party.
So how should we interpret the huge spike in Mt Albert early voting?
Both the Greens and Labour are pouring huge effort into reaching out to their base voters in Mt Albert to get early voting done. Seeing as there hasn’t been any real debate between the candidates, this spike in votes is either Labour and Green voters getting in early or it is National Party voters who have already made their decision and are backing Gareth Morgan’s TOP because there is no National Party candidate.
Jacinda needs a 1000 win majority to look half decent, anything less than that margin will be damaging to her and Labour as they launch into the election campaign.
If TOP can’t make any traction in an electorate tailor made to their middle class egalitarianism, then they won’t be any threat come September.
If the Greens win, it will be a huge upset and question Labour’s strength in Auckland, if Julie Anne Genter gets close, it does the same thing.
Labour will hope this spike in early votes helps Jacinda. The spike in voting suggests something is happening behind the scenes that the media are not picking up on yet.