How should we interpret the huge spike in Mt Albert early voting?

By   /   February 17, 2017  /   14 Comments

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Last election, many of us interpreted the huge spike in early voting as a sure sign that New Zealnders were rushing to throw John Key out after the Dirty Politics scandal and mass surveillance lies.

We. Were, 1000%. Wrong.

Last election, many of us interpreted the huge spike in early voting as a sure sign that New Zealanders were rushing to throw John Key out after the Dirty Politics scandal and mass surveillance lies.

We. Were, 1000%. Wrong.

People (mostly the middle classes) with property rushed to protect their untaxed speculation, it had nothing to do with what was revealed with dirty politics and the mass surveillance lies, it was middle class property speculators protecting their investment in the National Party.

So how should we interpret the huge spike in Mt Albert early voting?

Both the Greens and Labour are pouring huge effort into reaching out to their base voters in Mt Albert to get early voting done. Seeing as there hasn’t been any real debate between the candidates, this spike in votes is either Labour and Green voters getting in early or it is National Party voters who have already made their decision and are backing Gareth Morgan’s TOP because there is no National Party candidate.

Jacinda needs a 1000 win majority to look half decent, anything less than that margin will be damaging to her and Labour as they launch into the election campaign.

If TOP can’t make any traction in an electorate tailor made to their middle class egalitarianism, then they won’t be any threat come September.

If the Greens win, it will be a huge upset and question Labour’s strength in Auckland, if Julie Anne Genter gets close, it does the same thing.

Labour will hope this spike in early votes helps Jacinda.  The spike in voting suggests something is happening behind the scenes that the media are not picking up on yet.

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14 Comments

  1. countryboy says:

    The greedy, hallowed Masses think their stupidity is a gift. Maybe they’re right. Because the more I know? The more I know, that I know I don’t want to know it.

  2. Sam Sam says:

    The question i wanted answered was how much money has Geoff/Jacinda/Julian made implementing bond coupons, I know Geoff has and labours track record with managing coupons isnt flash hot and the greens?

    When you submit your track record it forces voters to asses your credentials an equal or some one looking for on the job training.

  3. CLEANGREEN says:

    Yes, Martyn,

    Labour had better have a last minute sweetener as Trump did to get him over the line when he realised the polling was close so he promised he will “drain the swamp” a term to describe corruption in Washington and it worked so labour get ready to drop a better sweetener.

    • FLUMMOXED says:

      You know, Trump didn’t actually drain the swamp? As a matter of fact, all he did was add several deadly bacteria strains to the already existing swamp!

  4. luke says:

    Julie Anne Genter is awesome. I hope she goes well.

    • mosa says:

      I agree
      I have seen Genter in action and she is one of the best electoral assets the Greens have and should eventually replace Meteria when she goes.

  5. Andrew says:

    This is the dregs of the Left fighting over the scraps:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/13/labour-now-third-popular-party-among-working-class-voters-poll/

    In the UK:

    “Labour now third most popular party among working class voters, poll reveals”

    History is against you.

    What excuses will you be inventing after the election later this year when a National led government is returned to power with stronger conservative flavour?

    • Sam Sam says:

      UK Labour also called back, none other than satan himself, tony blair.

      Hide your boys and gold, lucy is back

      • Andrew says:

        Well at least he got elected!

        At this rate UK Labour will be behind UKIP.

        Leftist elitists and academics have completely misread the working class because they’re living in London W1, not Rotherham.

        • Sam Sam says:

          Its about immirgration boytee. Some people just have to much hart and not enough sense. You bleed indians.

          How rediculous you go about saying single mums should adjust there sleeping habits to lower growth in welfare while the biggest scam in new zealand (student visa’s) are brining in workers? Wtf is your rational? You come across as subhuman.

          And thats generalised in the UK and every other western country.

          Some say it takes $100,000 to resettle an Indian student in New Zealand. For the same price I could ressetle 13 students in india: https://youtu.be/hbfQP6lzx4I

          Where education is free? This government is literally sub human. They couldnt even organise a school trip with out some one ending in a jail cell. #muppet

  6. Quicksilver says:

    Who’s to say some of the Blue-Green Nats won’t hold their noses and vote Green, rather than TOP, just to give Jacinda a scare? This by-election is so distorted by the political manoeuvring of the combatants it’s hard to know how the results (whatever they turn out to be) may be interpreted. Go Joe Carolan is all I’ll say.

  7. Andrew says:

    A large postal vote is a worry, regardless of which party you support.

    It increases the opportunity for certain people to apply pressure to vulnerable individuals to vote in a certain way.

    For example, in the North of England the large number of postal votes among certain immigrant communities has invited questions about husbands or even community leaders using stand-over tactics to ensure wives and dependent young adults to vote along certain lines.

    At the very least vote secrecy is lost.

    I don’t know what the mix in Mt Albert is – are there any specific religious groups in that area that could account for this?

    If I had my way I would ban postal votes.

    • If I had my way I would ban postal votes.

      Hmmm, there is an element of concern here.

      More so with electronic voting which leaves no paper-trail and is open to hacking. Even allegations of hacking could undermine the process. (Witness Trump alleging – without any evidence – that “3 million votes were fraudulently cast.)