Don’t buy National’s spin on by-election result

By   /   December 5, 2016  /   9 Comments

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I was disappointed that the mass media largely bought the National Party’s spin on the Mt Roskill by-election. National said a loss would be catastrophic for Labour (and Andrew Little would be toast) but a loss for National wouldn’t mean a thing.

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I was disappointed that the mass media largely bought the National Party’s spin on the Mt Roskill by-election. National said a loss would be catastrophic for Labour (and Andrew Little would be toast) but a loss for National wouldn’t mean a thing.

After the election John Key claimed it was a Labour seat (because it had been held by a Labour MP Phil Goff) and that Labour’s Michael Wood had been aided by the Greens not putting up a candidate.

However, the voting figures from the 2014 General Election show that National should have had the edge. Not only did National win more party votes than Labour in 2014, but National plus its ACT and Conservative allies beat Labour and its Green ally by 47% to 45% in the party voting.

Surely it was a stunning defeat for National to reach only 27% in the by-election when the 2014 party vote for National plus allies was 47%.  They dropped 20 percentage points.

Likewise it was a stunning victory for Labour to poll 66% in the by-election when Labour plus the Greens only got 45% of the party vote in 2014.

The media pundits have recognised Labour’s success, but have largely allowed National to spin out of the blame. National dropping a “safe” seat in Northland, and now losing big in Mt Roskill certainly increases the likelihood that John Key’s party will not survive the next general election.

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9 Comments

  1. Takere Takere says:

    Couldn’t agree with you more Matua! Interest result too if one was wanting “spin” the numbers. 63% Labour versus Nat’s 27%. Will we see these figure touted in the media? I think not? Or, they’ll bury them and set fire to the “village” already …

  2. garibali says:

    Well what did you expect from our media? Their echoing of National’s line is par for the course. I’m 100% sure you are aware of this Keith ,and short of a proper competing media source starting up, there won’t be any change.

  3. mosa says:

    Yeah Martyn we just have to get used to the fact that reality is one thing in this country but our media and the National party spin a totally different scenario to suit the truth as they see it.

    Case in point One News National party appointed political spokesperson Katie Bradford declaring that Andrew Littles leadership was on the line if it had been a bad result.

    This was crap and misleading and was emphasised twice giving the public the perception once again that there is turmoil in the party.

    National should have done a lot better here if John Key is as iconic as we are all lead to believe but they have forgotten how to campaign without a dirty tricks approach and a candidate who had no real commitment to the people of the electorate based on Nationals economic prescription that does nothing to address the issues of the people of Mt Roskill, and their dislike of the behaviour National engages in to win votes.

    This campaign is probably the final test run before next year and the general election and if this By-election has shown anything it is that the forces that control the media and its message and the dirty tricks brigade can be ignored for democracy to prevail and not subvert the process to get the right outcome.

  4. mosa says:

    Apologies my blog should have been addressed to Keith.

  5. Helena says:

    Keith, we (or most of us) recognize that “our” media is controlled and briefed on what to write/say and, when it comes to TV interviews, how to say it. Notice interviews with jonkey are far more charming than those with Mr Little where there is a constant interrupting stream of “but what I’m asking you” and “why don’t you address … this that or the other”. It’s a game!!!
    If Mr Little wants to come out on top and trounce jonkey’s smirking quips he needs the same help that was given to the Iron Lady herself who, after makeover, lowered the voice, spoke slowly, said just enough with such authority as to command and lead the interview. And she was short but never impolite.
    Bravo Labour. Now lets see courage and integrity win the day and give back sovereignty and dignity to the land and its people.
    Bet the media will pee in their pants on that day!!!

  6. bert says:

    Too many ‘selfies” by the PM in Mt Roskill.
    Why not put his own job on the line rather than the dirty politics of gutlessness, in attacking Little
    If Mt Rokill is labelled a Labour seat by the P.M. is this not admission by Key that he is NOT governing for “ALL” New Zealanders

  7. Environmental Education says:

    Yeah, but you are comparing the party vote and electorate votes, which are not comparable. In the Wellington seats especially, labour politicians get in, but the party vote goes to National.

    • Strypey says:

      Yes, but why EE? The same reason Dunne keeps winning Ohariu. Because the Labour MPs that hold those seats have the advantages of incumbency and name recognition, so they win despite the party they are running for being behind in the party vote. With a virtual unknown running for Labour in Mt Roskill, and such a high party vote for National and co in 2014, you would at least expect it to be a close run thing. For National to come in 20% under their 2014 result shows a massive drop in support, and even Key can see the writing is on the wall, which is why he is resigning now, so he can say he was never voted out.

  8. Words says:

    Well said Keith Locke.

    “National dropping a “safe” seat in Northland, and now losing big in Mt Roskill certainly increases the likelihood that John Key’s party will not survive the next general election.”

    Is why John key resigned 2 days later.