The Daily Blog Open Mic – Wednesday 27th July 2016

1. It’s been no secret that Trevor Mallard wants to be speaker when the government chances.
   Far from waving a “white flag” as John key spins it, Trevor Mallard’s decision to stand down from his seat next year is a clear signal that it’s anticipated that the Nats are going to lose the election.

2. Andrew Little is going to have to acknowledge that any credible attack on the lack of houses for sale in Auckland is, sooner or later, going to force prices down.

   Logic and mathematics show any other pretension to be impossible.

   Unfortunately, the Labour idea of Kiwi-building “affordable” ownership houses in partnership with private capital, will actually make things worse if those houses suffer price crashes just after he talks young first home buyers into paying $500,000 – $600,000 for them.

   Prices will also fall if there is a concerted effort to supply affordable rentals. These could be made available to homeless, those who can’t afford normal rentals and also, at higher rates, to potential buyers. The option could be always there to buy the rentals at some time in the future, without opening the renters up for massive loss should the market fall dramatically.

   The only investor who can take this sort of long-term risk in house construction is the government itself. So the whole private-public partnership sharing in the profits from the sale of new-built housing will have to be abandoned and a revised Ministry of Works recreated to steer the construction.

   The alternative would be some sort of ballot system for First Home Buyers, should the sale price be subject to extra-market control, with a proviso that if they sell within, say, ten years they will have to sell only to other first home buyers.

   Such a requirement seems to put a lock on the first home buyers’ resources that will be unwieldy and impractical. If the government wants to use this construction programme to generate funding for rental construction, that may work better.

   If they are determined to build sale-houses, perhaps they could use the power of government to mass construct million-dollar houses for the wealthy, and then use the profits to build low-cost rentals.

3. @words – here’s hoping…

4. So the Auckland Unitary Plan Independent Hearing Panel has released its recommendations on the Unitary Plan, which is somewhat of a shocker, when we look at the small print in the many documents available here:
   http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/planspoliciesprojects/plansstrategies/unitaryplan/Pages/ihpreportsrecommendations.aspx

   It may please the ones from Generation Zero, and besides of them most certainly the developers, same as those in Council that proposed out of scope zoning in February this year, but it will send shock-waves through those who expected a more balanced Plan.

   Endless rules and development controls, and also overlays have been scrapped now, developers are given a free license to build as they like, and those that bothered following the whole process will see, that community groups, heritage groups and others, who participated, have after all largely been ignored.

   I wonder how “independent” the Panel really was, it raises serious questions.

   We have no minimum dwelling sizes (anything goes again, based on the Building Act and Code from the 1940s), there is no requirement for a minimum dwelling mix of units in larger developments, no real limits on heights, garage doors, windows, ceiling heights, there is NO provision for ensuring affordable homes get built, and it is a Plan that would a developer member of the ACT Party enjoy endless “wet dreams” in excitement.

   How the hell did they get to this outcome, Councillors are facing an extremely difficult task now to decide on the recommendations and to vote on it. They will in some suburbs and areas face a ratepayers revolt, I fear, and protests from those who want to keep heritage areas protected.

   So short before the local body election, it could not have been a more controversial and explosive topic delivered to the Council to decide on.

   And it will most certainly not be delivered, the high capacity of housing, as we will not have the manpower and materials to get it done. It will lead to Key and his government getting Chinese or other overseas corporations and staff into New Zealand, and build endless apartment and kitset townhouses, some of which may be the slums of tomorrow.

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