Rumour has it that there is panic inside the National Party. The significant jump in support for Labour has highlighted the deepening resentment at this Government and that starts creating tensions within National’s unity.
Labour jumped 5.2%, a statistically significant jump. The blocks now are 47 to 42. What needs to happen to continue this momentum is the next round of Polls show that number get tighter and there are rumours circulating around about internal polling that has shown this really hurting National.
I think that disillusioned Labour voters who moved to the Greens and NZ First have flocked back in huge numbers and those National voters who flirted with the Greens and NZ First have all run back home to National to protect their over leveraged property portfolios.
Expect those internal Polls to start leaking on blogs in the next couple of days.
If this starts building for Labour-Green then there will reach a point before the end of this year where the blocs get to even pegging as momentum builds. This scenario is being quietly whispered inside the National Party as the Joyce faction and The Judith Collins faction try and tempt Simon Bridges to be their Deputy if Key starts wobbling. Nobody is in the Paula Faction anymore other than a startled Bill English.
Watch the Nats turn on each other like rats if Labour-Green hit parity before the end of the year.
ha ha…goodie, goodie
well done Labour and the Greens
Yep agreed here, as it is now a psychic background thought we all feel that a real political move is coming.
I notice that United Future didn’t even rate a mention whilst ACT polled the smallest possible other than zilch. How many voters was that then David? One? Two maybe?
Shows how much support the rabid right conquistadores have when they are away from their NATZI protection.
+100…and they are ruining NZ state education by causing tax payer money to go into ridiculous Charter Schools ….which have been proven NOT to work in the USA ( education privatisation by stealth)
How does the song go…….”and it’s all over now baby blue”……
Or the song “there’s a fraction to much friction yeah” or for National, “6 months in a leaky boat”
I think you mean 8 years.
hooray ! finally some good news
To maintain momentum, the Greens-Labour will need to start to make joint statements that have a wide appeal to voters uncomfortable with the direction and tone of the current regime.
An action plan on river resurrection or a proposal to convene a panel of experts to draft a real plan to reduce greenhouse emissions; a regional development fund; a rcredible purpose to eradicate child poverty within 5 years; a plan to completely revamp the tax system to spread the load to the asset-rich and corporations and to lighten the load on middle and lower income-earners; a plan to revamp and rationalize immigration policies: to attempt to create both target and purpose, neither evident in the current system; a plan to build a large number of low-rent houses/apartments in Auckland or where needed, while ending land-banking, empty house-hording and tax-free capital gains. Each announcement accompanied by a pointed invitation to disaffected National voters to think again, while asserting that a worthwhile country maximizes opportunity, protects the disadvantaged and offers respect to all its citizens. Maybe even a plan to seek to return to being a country that tries to be a good international citizen, not just another wannabe exploiter of trade advantage.
This accord provides a fantastic reset doorway. Let’s hope our leaders are smart and savvy enough to walk through. I must say, I am more optimistic than I have been for a while.
I anticipate an ever more confident leadership that tries to entice back both those who have given up hope of help on the Left and those who may still be persuaded to hope for a better country after years of swallowing shame on the Right.
We are always quite capable of slipping back to name calling and purist-wrangling. But we can also be disciplined and focused. I’m going to bet on the latter this time.
Second paragraph : all of the above.
Key’s gilt plating has flaked off.
Middle NZ finally realised our PM is more interested in supporting tax dodgers aka 0% foreign trusts than Kiwis, who are now living in tents.
This is heartbreaking stuff… from Checkpoint with John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9UnyOoMIPU
There will be no panic where it matters, they’re too good at securing popularity. Tax cuts will get them close, scaremongering might get them over.
“It’s not all over until Eminem sings”
BTW, what happened with the lawsuit against the Nats on stealing “Lose-yourself”? I wonder if wealthy Chinese are asked to contribute
And wait until after the poll after Max Keydashian’s photoshoot hits social media. Expect big turnaround back in favour of National.
Sorry just pmsl
As much as Key’s personal popularity has fallen from 55.8% (Oct 2009) to 36.7% (May 2016), (See: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/05/25/the-slow-dismantling-of-a-prime-minister-downward-slide-continues/), it will take a major scandal he can’t bullshit his way out of, or collapse in the Auckland housing market, before his personal ratings collapse to a point where he becomes more a liability than an asset.
Neither Joyce nor Bennett have anything near the charisma that Key has. In fact, both exhibit a charisma by-pass and remind me more of Jenny Shipley than a popular leader.
It is interesting to note that the media are reporting more bad news stories that National is constantly having to address. The constant fighting of political “bush-fires” reminds me strongly of Shipley’s dying months as leader of the National-Mauri Pacific coalition government.
All that is required is a small shift – 5 percentage-points according to some (including right-wing commentator and New Right cadre, Matthew Hooton) – and National’s hold on power becomes solely dependent on New Zealand First and the whims of Winston Peters.
Five percentage points is doable. The bad news is chipping away at National’s credibility, and Key’s teflon was scoured away by successive scandals and inept ministers taking ‘liberties’.
The question is; will Peters prop up a fourth term National-led government?
Or a Labour-led government?
Or stay on the cross-benches?
As always, a vote for Peters is not much different to signing a blank cheque and handing it to a politician with a note attached;
“Here you go, I trust you with this.”
That is where Peters and his Party are most vulnerable, and Labour and the Greens would do well to remind people that a vote for NZ First is a giant leap into the darkness; you don’t know what’s lurking in there.
Frank I see a conspiracy here. Is National behind the new Seniors party? Are they trying to take away NZ First party base, thus taking away Winston being kingmaker?
As an aside, I am a Neville nobody but when Neil Finn sends a tweet to John Oliver with new material in the form of Max Key’s photo shoot, then you know there’s a problem with this countries media priorities. Thank’s NZ Herald!
“All that is required is a small shift – 5 percentage-points according to some (including right-wing commentator and New Right cadre, Matthew Hooton) – and National’s hold on power becomes solely dependent on New Zealand First and the whims of Winston Peters.”
Or an unexpected by-election in Ohariu/Belmont, Epsom, or any electorate where National’s popularity is slipping due to inequality. Fingers crossed Peter Dunne doesn’t get hit by a bus or anything, eh? Mind you, his hair might act as a sort of rudimentary helmet and save him.
Agree Frank, re all you have said about Winston Peters and NZF.
NZF has some very good policies. However I can’t bring myself to vote for the party, because it’s a case of voting for the unknown, a possible vote for National. And I know of many other Kiwis of the same mind.
Like Labour/Greens have aligned themselves, giving voters some idea of what a vote for either party would mean, Winston needs to show his hand now, otherwise he and NZF could end up on the outside looking in again, which would be a pity.
Other than wanting the power of being Kingmaker … not in the best interests for the country … I can’t see any reason why Winston is so reluctant to identify NZF’s preferred political direction. He needs to update himself, get with 21 century MMP politics and look at what is best for NZ, if he genuinely believes a change of government is necessary for the benefit of the nation.
An ambiguous political party, such as what NZF is at present, simply doesn’t make sense and is of no useful value to NZ.
Frank you are correct to some degree, but Key’s popularity is still remarkable in a third term PM, and if you are going to highlight the decline in his popularity from ridiculous highs, you also have to highlight the woeful ratings of the current Leader of the Opposition. In July 2007, John Key’s preferred PM ratings were between 31% and 38%. Andrew Little is currently in single figures. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008#Preferred_Prime_Minister)
Also…the media are beginning to pick away at Labour’s credibility as well as Nationals. This editorial is fairly harsh on claims made by Chris Hipkins (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11653079), and the Herald have also published a rebuttal to this article from Andrew Little about Auckland housing (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11653530). This shows that as these issues heat up, more scrutiny is going to go on all policy, as it should do.
We live in interesting times for those of us who follow politics!!
Come on, what “jump” are we talking about?
Are we talking about the Roy Morgan Poll where Labour was last at only 26 percent? That particular poll tends to fluctuate a lot, and needs to be seen over longer periods, to average the percentage out.
We can say that Labour have now for a damned long time been hanging around 28 to 31 percent, say roughly 30 percent, and other polls leave the party there also.
The Greens do go up and down a bit, and here Labour’s increase is met with a decrease of Greens support, which does not help.
And without NZ First there will be no chance of Labour and Greens taking charge next year, unless something significant happens.
The MoU was just a symbolic move, and will change little in the real world, the only positive about it is that both parties have now openly committed themselves to change the government (together), and after election night anything can be negotiated again.
I see this poll as just more lacklustre “performance” or support for Labour and Greens as earlier ones, it changes little.
Let us get real and hold Labour to task to damned well present a proper policy agenda that fits in well with that of the Greens and also leaves a door open for Winston and his lot.
But we are still waiting on policy, are we not?
As long as Key and his pin up boy Max dominate the social media and MSM scene, and get treated with too much grace, we will not see much damage to the Nats. He may be less popular the PM, but only once he goes, will it get easier for Labour and Greens to take over.
Bennett is a pompous wrecker, a high risk potential leader, she will not last long as she will soon enough be exposed for her lies and shallowness, and Crusher Collins will simply not appeal enough to the bulk of the so far comfy middle class with property and secure jobs and small businesses.
Neither of them will be able to draw the support a now slightly weakened John Key still gets.
Come on people, wake up! The elections are rigged. Talk about sheeple
What would be good is another John Key scandal I am sure Collins has material she can use at the appropriate time , my theory is that it will be an internal Coup when he is most compromised.
Lab green could be facing a totally different enemy next September.
And all those who dithered between Greens and Labour, feeling guilty whichever one they chose, can now relax as whichever they choose they know their vote counts and won’t shut out the other party.
Ah well it had to come national can’t lie for ever and the msm can only accept bribes for so long as people aren’t that stupid that they aren’t going start telling it like it is
I note that the Nats went up in this poll, while the Greens went down. All that has happened is that Labour cannibalised some Greens voters. While it is good to see Labour, finally, polling above 30%, it needs to stay there consistently from now on if it is to have a hope of forming the next government. The unmeasured factors is, of course, the people who no longer vote. Traditionally, these people voted Labour but have given up because it no longer represents them. Is Labour even going to try and appeal to this group?
Yes there is no left to right shift, which is required to change the government. If anything, the CR is stronger post the MOU.
I agree that Winston needs to come forward with his support of the Labour / Green new coming together. Clearly he will not agree with everything as they will not completely agree with all of Winstons priorities but his sitting on the fence will do no one any good.
I grow weary of this ” king maker ” reference to Winston. If he wants to be part of the winning team and next govt. he had better give up his ( possible ? ) crown envy and join the team. Get off the fence Winston.
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