Latest TV3 Poll – Left’s embarrassing denial over Key’s popularity

By
Martyn Bradbury
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57
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ONLINE_COMBINE_POLL_INFO_21_11

The latest TV3 Poll is out and it highlights just how difficult a job it is to take Key out. Paddy Gower desperately attempts to paint some silver linings for the Left as part of TV3s new attempt to woo back liberal and progressive viewers who have walked away from TV3 in droves because of that networks terrible pro-government bias, but the simple reality is that National are barely lower than their election night victory.

There have been some embarrassing attempts by comrades on the Left to suggest this is the beginning of the end of Key, but those are just grasping straws. The truth is that despite mass surveillance lies, despite selling off public assets, despite draconian conditions for beneficiaries, despite Dirty Politics, despite a housing affordability crisis, despite the economy tanking, despite growing unemployment. despite high incarceration rates, despite ideological experiments in education, despite killing off critical media, despite the PMs Office colluding with the SIS to smear the Leader of the Opposition months before the 2011 election, despite saying we wouldn’t go to war and then going to war, despite inequality, despite claiming Opposition MPs were backing rapists for highlighting human rights abuses – DESPITE ALL THAT – National are still on 46.7%.

Why?

The grim reality is that the middle classes have traded in their egalitarian values for housing property valuations that now make 3 times the average wage annually. The property speculating middle classes will allow creationism to be taught in their local school if it means putting  capital gains tax off for 3 more years.

We won’t see a substantial shift in the polls until the economy tanks and the property bubble pops, until then the property speculating middle classes are not leaving Key even if he kills a kitten live on Seven Sharp and uses it to play catch with Mike Hosking.

The silver lining is that Labour have stopped haemorrhaging and have built into the early 30s. They enter BBQ season safe but need to start fleshing out policy over the Summer. The sleepy hobbits of middle Nu Zilind won’t change votes until they realise National speak small business morality but govern for the corporations, the second the illusion of good economic management slips, Key will be gone burger.

 

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57 COMMENTS

  1. The other problem is that they have successfully convinced the public that the left are as dishonest as the right. I remember conversations about Hagar’s book around the time of the election and people were saying to me, yes but they are all dishonest. To the punters, if both sides are bad, you may as well go for the one the gives the most sweeties.

    • That they are all “as bad as each other” is the defensive mantra of the Right.
      It doesn’t make it true.
      Numbers will build for the Left as credible, hopeful and exciting policy starts to roll out. And when the Left coalition starts to look stable, effective and suitably cooperative.
      It will also be helped by regular media pronouncements that the Centre-Left may well be in a position to form a government. To add to this speculation, I suggest that Little or Davis be seen sometimes having talks with the Maori Party, (which, let’s face it, have always had more in common with the Left than the Right). When this starts, there is a sneaky 2% which will suddenly have to be factored into the equation.
      (Remember, bad as the last election results were, the country was still only a seat or two away from a change of government.)

      Also, by the way, for National, 38% for Key is a disaster. When his popularity is appreciably lower than that of the party in general, the knives start to be sharpened among the ambitious Nats.

      • Collins for PM. With Paula Bennett as Deputy. The right have to woo voters back that are leaving National’s support base in droves thanks to Key and those that support blokey numbnuttery..

        Ponytailgate. WanderinghandsMalaysiandiplomatgate. CallingLavourrapistsupportersandwomenMPswalkingoutgate. Sinkinglidfinancialsupportforrapecrisiscentresgate.

    • @GettingON – you are totally right!

      But Labour support this notion by their behaviour!

      Do they walk out of parliament over TPP? NO
      Do they walk out of parliament over Spying? NO
      Do they walk out of parliament over Dirty Politics? NO
      Do they walk out of parliament over the arrest of Nicky Hager? NO
      Do they publicly discipline Nash over his tirade? NO

      Labour really do seem very similar to National and I think the Natz dirty tricks is just that, pretending to be Labour while encouraging Labour to pretend to be the Natz. The result, confusion, loss of voting and

      Those with most sweeties wins.

      Also Nat voters know Natz are cheats and liars but don’t care, Labour voters care if Labour appears to be unprincipled. As long as Natz and Labour mirror each other in the above policy then Natz will win.

      • That’s a difficult line to walk though – If they walk out of parliament over everything they are opposed to, they will only be seen as “the cover your ears and sing la-la-la-i-can’t-hear-you-so-you’re-not-saying-anything” party. They have to stay and fight, in whatever way. I wish they had opposed the TPP by voting against it, rather than supporting it conditionally, as I don’t think it is a good thing to be party to, but they didn’t. However, I wouldn’t want them to be constantly walking out just because they don’t like the way things are going. That just seems like it would make them too easy a target.

  2. “You don’t know what you don’t know”

    The fact is 90% of NZers don’t have any alternative news sources. They only have the MSM, which is why they aren’t even aware of any of those issues you highlighted.

    Goebbels would be impressed with what Key, Ede, Textor and co have created in NZ.

    • When they put National on 30% or less I might think there would be a good chance.

      Last election proved that voters who claimed to be on ‘the left’, weren’t energized, and didn’t even bother to vote in the numbers even close to those reported in the polls.

      Till that changes you aren’t going to see a change of government.

    • 100% REALIST

      I couldn’t have said it better except remember MBIE (Ministry of Business Innovation and employment) is the Key\Joyce comparison to Goebbels Ministry of Public enlightenment & Propaganda remember?

  3. The real issue is what Labour is not offering the country, a real alternative, they are so timid and truly pathetic.

        • Nor does calling people “princess” make you endearing, just as being of the opinion that Michal is correct is not a testament to fact – It’s just your opinion.

      • I don’t think Michael is a troll (on this post at least). I think he makes a point. To the electorate Labour are not coming out with a credible alternative. Until they do, Key wins. We need to listen to uncomformable opinions that challenge our beliefs if we are to succeed in gaining a Labour government next time round.

        • I agree. Labour is the problem. We can’t change the Natz (apart from maybe the farmers revolt which might get them worried) but people are hoping that Labour will so back to their policy roots of fairness for all. Apparent

          The other issues is that Labour seem desperate for money at all times. It is all about donations – Cunliffe was one of the best in Labour – but on his speech after Labour lost, he referred to money as being an issue. That was not why they lost. It was their horrendous conduct and policy.

          If they want to increase taxes obviously they should look at corporate under payment of taxes such as why so many corporations have huge profits but pay very little tax in NZ. Instead they concentrated on the public, increasing pensions, property taxes and PAYE of Kiwis who have got ridiculously low wages and savings already – not popular.

          • +100…good points!…ordinary people ( who are not into bribes) only give money and support to political parties when they feel inspired or truly believe in what they stand for

    • I agree @ Michal.

      It’s like they’re running a covert, red herring op for the Natz-ies . I’ve been writing about that for ages .

      When I read that there are those many who think Jonky’s ‘ A legend ‘ ( little bit of sick ) I ask why ? Why do those many Mall Shopping, blank-brains think jonky’s anything other than the con man , and I use the word ‘ man’ advisedly, bully , liar and manipulator he is. And how any of those idiots out there who think jonky’s cool or a Legend in any way what so ever is beyond me . They must just listen to ZM FM ! Boom ! Whap ! Bam ! Bazingo ! Braw haw,haw,haw, haw ! Or tune in to Talk Back Radio and puff out brain farts like a flatulent cow on damp clover. ( Seriously , they blow up and can die. Unless you stick them with a knife just in front of the left hind leg. You just tap their tummy’s with your hand … Hollow noise ! Stab, then run like fuck. Don’t ask me how I know this . )

      The answer lies in the MSM and the constant spin they put on the jonky product.

      Jonky’s a product. He’s a piece of merchandising. His true value, his true intentions are open to speculation. I just know he’s an arsehole because I’m clever. Not, because I listen to radio of watch tv certainly. His ministers are arseholes, his son certainly seems like an arsehole in training and I bet jonky’s cat , dog and gold fish are arseholes too.

      You’d think, wouldn’t you? That after all this time. After all the shit that’s gone down. Ya know? The Nicky Hagar thing, the Kim Dotcom thing, the Glen Greenwald coming here thing , the Julian Assange thing and the Edward Snowden thing ? You’d think that after all that horrible and nasty shit that jonky’s flung at us only to then watch the MSM sugar coat each and every turd junky’s dropped out … you’d think that over at poor old Labour, limping along , whimpering, wiping its own little nose … you’d think the penny would have dropped right?

      Labour . You fucking idiots . What does jonky do ? Copy that but with the best intentions . Use the media and do something different but the same. Art of war ? Hello? Albert Einstein said “ The definition of madness is to do the same thing but expect a different result. “

      I watched Andrew Little give a rousing speech. He was articulate and frankly blood quickening. So, where is he now ? Jesus ! I jumped up, pulled on my best fur lined man panties , leather vest , chain male , sword in hand and was readying my ride-on lawn mower to go on a pilgrimage to Wellington to lay siege to paula bennett’s calf muscles and it all just fizzled out. Why ? Because the MSM didn’t, wouldn’t , couldn’t , dared not go anywhere near a righteous man threatening to steal the jonky-products market lead . That’s why.

      While on that subject. I’m quite flash. I go here and there and do things with, to, and for people for outrageous amounts of money. Consequently, I talk to those to whom I do things to , for and with and I discovered one thing.
      No one. Not one person had heard of the Daily Blog . I had to write down TDB URL on a fucking ten dollar note then give it away ! ( In return for a beer I might add ) For gods sake ! I forgot, they got rid of fivers years ago !

      Caaaaa Mon ! Guys ! Market yourselves ! Give Labour a platform from which to pitch . I’d a never seen Andrew Little’s speech if you, TDB hadn’t of shown it here .

      T.D.B. M.A.R.K.E.T. Y.O.U.R.S.E.L.V.E.S ! For fucks sake !

      Know your enemy. You will learn that those same things your enemy uses to smite you, you can use to smite them back. And after all the horrible, awful things that jonky, his predecessors and his current crop of minions are doing to us I’d safely say there’s a great deal of willing workers on organic political trajectories out there ready and able to help. ( WWOOPT’sters. Ha ! That’s a first and you’s can use it. )

      Jonky’s MSM minions are burying Labour under Labours lack of an understanding of how important marketing really is, especially in these heady days of the Idiocrat. They all have such vacant cranuims, all you have to do is pour stuff into them.

      Print a black T shirt with TDB on it in that cool, old school, banner style you use . I’d buy one and wear it proudly. And stickers ! I love stickers ! Who doesn’t love a decent sticker ? I have another great idea !

      A sticker that’s also a stencil ! Huh ? You stick up the sticker and that leaves the sticky bit stuck right? The bit left over is now a stencil. Banksy said something like ” The best thing to hit someone with is a wall ”

      Fuck jonky. He’s had his day. Time for the table to turn.

      • Agree with you countryboy,T D B needs marketing. (and money to do it )
        Wonder how many greatful immigrants and other people boost John Keys rating,hes allowed them to come here and make big profits ,.
        Most people would probably do the same, money is the key.

        I don’t trust polls ,they are not a true indicator,they can be rigged , questions asked in places like Epsom ,Parnel, etc ,landlines are used , not all cell phone numbers are known. I think I get 3 calls a week on landline ,only use it for internet, so the polls are not valid. might be a different story if election was held now. Key said Winston would never win in Northland ,Key got a shock didn’t he!
        I would back NZ 1st ,Mana and Greens over Labour.

      • Oh please.
        Angry bullshit like this, Countryboy, and $5 will get you a coffee after the next National win.
        But it is always so satisfying trying to crucify Labour. It’s better than winning an election, better than trying to think up genuinely constructive policy and way way better than trying to learn from history.
        Reality is nuanced. Solutions are sometimes awkwardly difficult to crystallize. Road rage is not nuanced; self-righteous indignation is as easy as it is one dimensional.
        Take a look at “easy,” “self-evident” solutions. Find some place where they tried them. How did they work out?
        It doesn’t mean there are no solutions or that enthusiasm and energy have no place, just that a bit more respect for the incremental and the fore-sighted, and a bit less of the red mist might just do some good.
        Sometimes to be angrily dismissive or to be constructively engaged is just a choice we make. Forgive me for not believing that they are of equal merit.

  4. “The grim reality is that the middle classes have traded in their egalitarian values for housing property valuations that now make 3 times the average wage annually.”

    Not only that, but they are forcing us to listen to Stairway to Heaven again and again and again ……..

  5. To sum it up in a short sentence: Muddle Nu Ziland want John Key to stay indefinitely, as long as the money keeps pouring in.

    • Mike, your comment is great and true. Clearly, the trolls are out in force, down-voting anyone who points out truth about the sociopathic John Key.

  6. …well imo

    (… apart from not taking polls too seriously this far out from and Election….and the fact that polls are right wing biased PR….)

    Labour and the Left do not provide an alternative to John Key Nactional to get INSPIRED about

    eg. Labour support of TPPA with provisions

    eg. Blue Greens support for Jonkey’s Red Peak corporate flag ( against the NZ flag)and accusing Labour and NZF of “crude racial profiling” when they attempt to tackle the housing crisis

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/70186455/Greens-accuse-Labour-of-crude-racial-profiling-on-housing-sales

    Bring on and resurrect Mana/Int/Green anti corporate NZ sovereignty Party ( which includes NZF)…stronger than ever?

    • Everyone was saying the polls were biased towards the right before the election too… they turned out to be pretty accurate.

  7. I share your pessimism.

    We won’t see a substantial shift in the polls until the economy tanks and the property bubble pops,

    … then it’ll be goodbye National and whoever replaces them will be saddled with the job of managing and turning around a broken economy. It took years to mess if up, it will take even longer to fix.

    We don’t need to guess as which politcal party the same class of voter will associate with the resultant hardship?

  9. Nice post, Martyn.

    The position of the two Standard posts isn’t that this is the beginning of the end for Key, but rather that it’s consistent with a steady drop in support for the PM. It appears people are now getting tired of his schtick. But its up to Labour to provide an attractive alternative if this is to make an election winning difference.

  10. It is a tv 3 poll after all… I still see in everyday life more hatred for Key than love. All I know is that if the TPPA is signed, in which Key is intent on doing, all NZ will pay a hefty price. Most won’t realise until its all too late, which makes polls like this all the more infuriating.

  11. …and maybe due to the TV 3 boycott, the only ones ‘left’ watching 3 are ‘right’ leaning anyway. Easy win.

  12. It’s all too easy to overestimate the capacity of most people to feel empathy beyond their own life experiences. It’s the “I’m alright Jack” attitude that we humans come hardwired with. Power seekers have long recognised this. Collectivism is too intellectually demanding for most – individualism and selfishness requires no thought, just base instinct. At the moment, bread and circuses are more than enough to maintain the status quo.

  13. well around half of kiwis might be selfish silly billies but it does not mean the rest of us have to join them

    I for one am just going to keep on keeping on at demos, pickets and rallies and campaigns and staying away from the Boxing Day Sales

    politics is more than parliamentary elections, the Hikoi for Homes type of action is where it is at–involve communities and communities of interest and build the numbers

  14. Suspect as long as the vast majority of people have little interest in politics / are too lazy to take any interest in politics / persevere with the notion that National is the home of good economic stewardship while Labour is some kind of easy money waterfall for the lazy / middle NZ remain enamoured with Key’s ‘nice guy’ grin nothing is ever going to change unless Little stands up in parliament and pretty much says “There are only 2 kinds of people who vote National – the selfish and the stupid – and it’s time for middle NZ to realise which of the 2 they are and to stop voting against their own best interests” . .

  15. It’s a hard reality to accept but there is a calcified rump of Kiwi voters who are just like Key. They don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves, not fussed with ethics or morals when it suits, think they alone are doing well and have done so on their own but more likely than not that means a giant mortgage to show for it and numerous other endowments they fail to mention, hate with a passion anyone who dares do better than them if that person does not fit their profile and are extraordinarily shallow.

    But they are in the minority, Key is NOT liked by more than 60% of voters so not all is lost.

  16. how about the ‘little’ elephant in the room..

    1)..those hoping for transformative-policies from little may as well all wish for ponies..

    ..little promised when elected to shed the radical-policies labour had in the ’14 election..(all of which he has since done..)

    (think about that for a moment..)

    2)..whenever he is asked about the real ‘transformative’-policies being advanced by bernie sanders and jeremy corbyn and justin trudeau (who just one a landslide-victory promising such policies..)..little doesn’t take succor/get courage from such in-his-face-policies..as you may expect/hope..
    ..he rushes to repeat the big fucken stinking-lie/dismissal that ‘it is different here’..
    (no it fucken isn’t..mr little..!..)

    (think about that for a moment..)

    3)..the likes of michelle boag suported little to be leader of labour..( i’m going to take a wild guess here and say that is/was for two reason..1) being he is a ‘safe’ pair of neoliberal-hands..a suitable tweedle-dee..and 2) because he is the easiest for the tories/key to beat in an election..

    ..why else do you think boag/paul henry etc are all now being ‘nice’ to little…they want him in that role..

    (think about that for a moment..)

    4)..and lest you think the above is all something i have just whipped up will get your proof of the truth of my words soon..

    ..that will be with the upcoming cabinet-reshuffle..

    ..when despite stuart nash having being exposed on many forums as being a rightwinger/neoliberal..who was funded/supported into govt by a group of rightwing business-‘friends’..

    ..depite this irrefutable-evidence..(and more..)..little will promote stuart nash in that upcoming cabinet-reshuffle..

    ..think about all that for a moment..and then realise that hopes for anything ‘different’ from labour/little…

    ..is/will be as effective in outcome..as us all wishing for those ponies..

      • oh..i do..a lot..

        ..you could/must start by getting rid of little…

        (and could you detail for me what i said that was/is incorrect..?..

        ..in any way/shape/form..?..)

        • Three things.

          1st) no

          2nd) and no

          3rd) third is more like pointers for yourself to clarify

          -wtf is a radical policy?

          -what makes New Zealand similar to the U.S, UK and Canadian ?

          -does Boag and Henry nuts still support Andrew Little? If yes, then you should be correct, if no then you are incorrect.

          – news flash, Staurt Nash is right wing, which is not so surprising because his constituency is, umm, right wing. Is fiscal conservatism good? If debt is shrinking no, if debt is rising yes.

          The thing is, policy directions change wildly depending on who is leader, and of what party, but, it doesn’t matter who’s in office NZDF will shrink until it’s a policy failure. So consider the order of magnitude around the value usually given

            • B?
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              .
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              .

              Your a perucliar guy. There are only three real transformative policies.

              1) a government infrastructure bank

              2) raise interest rates

              3) brake up the big banks

              Or all of the above. Keys little bit experiment of shrinking government has been a failure. We know big governments work, it got us through 08.

              Japan’s in recession now, I’ll give it until October 1st next year before it hits NZ shores. Then we will see how Keys policies really stack up. Which has been pretty shit so far

  17. Good story Martyn, I personally don’t hold any credibility for anything that is pronounced on TV 3, just look at Christy and the flag selection, bent as a banana, would bend and manipulate any piece of information to get the “right” outcome.

    Your right Martyn about the Kitten too, even if there were two kittens, the media and weak minded public would not show any concern.

    Historically, left wing govt’s have been left to clean up the economic mess left by greedy right wing govt’s, this time will be no different.

  18. It is no coincidence that Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders are products of the Fifties and Sixties. their ideas may mitigate the excesses of the Right but they offer little more than that to the future.
    There is nothing wrong with free education or health care but as for their policies breaking the political mould, forget it. Sustainability, participation, respect and redemption are just as important today along with innovative solutions to problems in a social-media-shrunk world.
    The two Socialist cheerleaders are good men. But bumper-sticker solutions are no more the answers to the problems of the world from a Left perspective than they are from the Right.
    Political entropy has created a world where ever more complex questions are being asked about ever more complex – and sometimes intractable – problems. Any solutions will be equally complex. In my view, the only answers will have to involve a growing participation from all interested and involved stakeholders.

    Top-down, Fifties-style solutions, such as Corbyn and Sanders seem to propose have usually proven inadequate and often counter-productive, despite the best of intentions. Look at the “Projects” in the American urban areas. How easy it is to under-fund the Health Department. How easy is it to break out of Porirua East or Mangere? Why are so many State Houses run-down and unhealthy? What is the education success rates of the poorest sections of the country? Or the health outcomes?

    Demanding that we emulate Sanders and Corbyn is seductive, but facile. The fact that Tony Blair’s “Third Way” was crap does not mean that the only way forward is to put all our eggs in some New Deal basket. We discuss different ideas purely because nothing is that obvious. Let’s not pretend it is.

    • But the New Deal did actually work – the “free market”/neoliberal path hasn’t apart from for select people/organisations. And obviously Justin Trudeau isn’t a product of the 50’s and 60’s.

  20. What a lot of old cobblers, National controls TV3 that is why they dropped Campbell Live to stop embarrassing National.
    Besides Its not hard to be on top when the polls are skewed to obtain the bull shit results that National wants.
    If a fair true poll was done taking a random 100 persons from each voting district I am sure everyone would be very surprised at the different result. Current polls are taken in areas which are National strong holds such as Waiheke!

  21. Interesting…

    In my story The slow dismantling of a Prime Minister continues, Key’s Preferred Prime Minister ratings have been dropping since October 2009.

    There was a slight ‘bounce’ in September (up to 39.5%), but the fall has resumed.

    It appears that not only is he no longer teflon-coated, but the sheen is starting to wear a bit. Isolated scandals and prat-falls by themselves may not affect Key’s ratings – but over time, each tiny cut has an effect.

    By November 2017, it will be interesting to see if the fall in his ratings has continued to such an extent that he is no longer National’s “bright beacon”.

    There’s an old adage that Opposition parties don’t win elections as much as government’s lose them.

    At the same time, Labour and the Greens have to show the electorate what an alternative government looks like. “Brand Labour” has to be different to “Brand Key/National” – or else why change?

    It will be an interesting two years.

  22. I like that – “death by a thousand cuts” and it is quite true. As long as Key continues along as he is, his shine will continue to tarnish and people will finally start to take note.

    He can continue on being a grinning buffoon as much as he likes – it is all going to work against him as time goes on.

    He is not a statesman – never has been – never will be. He will leave no major legacy and will be rapidly forgotten in the outstanding Prime Minister’s stakes.

    Perhaps he is hanging out for the flag change and don’t bet on a second referendum. He is just as likely to run with the front-runner from referendum one and argue it doesn’t make sense to spend loads more money when Kiwis have actually come up with an alternative a large proportion of those who voted, agreed with.

    We need a Labour statesman and I think Little could be the man for the job. Unlike Lange, who hit the stage running, Little appears to be building his mana more slowly and there is nothing wrong with that provided he doesn’t run out of time.

  23. Most in this country are so asleep and believe the lies of the MSM that no wonder they will likely get back in a man full of lies and lack of ethics.
    We are the laughing stock now instead of a proud and strong and clean/green country. We are being sold down the river and taken over by corporate interests and greed. These greedy zionist jews own most all of the worldwide media and own most of the worlds governments.
    They control more than most of us are aware of.

    Most choose to be biased and make many false assumptions and are not impeccable with their word. Sheeples led by a trainwreck govt. and so they get what they deserve. A new flag is more important than starving and abused children and homelessness and growing suicide rates ETC. . .

    ” AWAKENING MEANS TEARING DOWN THE LAYERS OF PROGRAMMING AND PERCEPTION THAT HOLD US IN SERVITUDE TO IGNORANCE. ”

    Unfortunately there are a lot of ignorant biased voters in New Zealand.

  24. What about the TDB poll? is it more or less kosher than the dodgy polling done by Roy Morgan? who given the changes in technology whereby less people use landlines now, do not explain how they get mobile phone numbers to randomly call, and since the telcos do not give out that kind of information and there is no white pages directory of current mobile phone numbers either, the polls by the likes of RM etc are highly questionable to start with.

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