Weekend Revelations #3 – Greg O’Connor and criminal statistics

By   /   October 30, 2015  /   18 Comments

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On TVNZ’s Q+A, on 25 October, Michael Parkin interviewed outgoing Police Association President, Greg O’Conner.

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national government-recorded-crime-down-20-per-cent

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On TVNZ’s Q+A, on 25 October, Michael Parkin interviewed outgoing Police Association President, Greg O’Conner.

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TVNZ Q+A - Greg O'Conner - Police Association - crime statistics

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In a rare moment of candid speaking, O’Conner had some eyebrow-raising revelations to make about National’s portrayal of crime statistics and budgetary decisions.

On statistics,  Parkin referred  to  National and Police  trumpeting a 30% drop in crime. O’Conner responded wryly;

@3.10

“Well, it’s uh, lies, damned lies, and statistics. If you look at the crime stats, um, which is those recorded stats, you’ll say the government and police administration are right. If you look at the stats around calls for service, they’re the phone calls that police receive in communications centes, etc, and just an example, family violence, domestic disputes; up by 10% a year pretty much, and across the board, 20% increase. So it’s the calls for service, to the extent that the communications centres couldn’t manage last summer. There’s a fear, and we’re obviously we’re trying to make sure it doesn’t happen this year. So the two are going in completely different directions.”

Parkin pointedly asked if the statistics are being manipulated. O’Conner’s response  was startling in it’s honesty;

@3.55

“Of course they are. Every government department – I mean, what happens is that, the stats themselves are fair, but I mean I see it as a debate [like] about health, y’know, medical – the waitings lists have going down, but people get kicked of waiting lists and so it’s, you achieve – Put it this way, with crime stats, what we’ve set out to do is the way to cut crime stats is to hit your bulk crime. So if you have any success there, of course, that’s going to be big numbers down. And what you ignore is your small  numbers. You ignore, in fact, interestingly enough you ignore drugs. You ignore a lot of your serious stuff that you only find if you go looking. And in the past that’s got us into real trouble. Got us into trouble with the child abuse files, in particular, and you remember, that they were put aside. Because they weren’t politically known. They were business as usual. All of a sudden we were concentrating on the crime and crash reduction, um, and we ignored that stuff. And so you’ve got to be careful. And this is where the politicisation of policing is really dangerous. It’s not done by the Minister saying ‘you gotta do this and you gotta do that’, it’s done by funding.”

O’Conner’s scorn is confirmed by an event last year where one police district was caught out, red-handed, falsifying crime statistics. Seven hundred burglary offences “disappeared”;

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Police made burglaries vanish - greg o'conner - national - crime statistics

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Herald journalist, Eugene Bingham, reported;

” It transpired others knew about the allegations around the same time, including the local MP and then-Minister of Justice, Judith Collins.”

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Two-year search for 'ghost crimes' truth - greg o'conner - national - crime statistics

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A police report “raised questions over pressures to meet crime reduction targets”, but Police were quick to assure that the fudged stats were “isolated“;

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Police deny being caught out by false review claims - greg o'conner - national - crime statistics

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National is in fear of statistics that show their policies are either not making any appreciable difference or, are worsening problems. A prime example is Paula Bennett’s adamant refusal to measure poverty in New Zealand;

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Measuring poverty line not a priority - Bennett

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Any claims to “reducing crime” should therefore be viewed with extreme scepticism in the light of Greg O’Connor’s disclosures on fudged crime statistics which confirm National’s active policy of discretely hiding statistics it finds embarrassing. Or not measuring them at all.

Interestingly, O’Conner’s comments on National’s policing budget is also true.

Firstly, “Vote Police” is broken down into several sections, where monies are allocated to different areas. This allows plenty of scope for political manipulation as to where money will be put.

On top of which, using the Reserve Bank inflation calculator, it is fairly simple to determine that the Police budget has not kept pace with inflation.

Research going back to 2008 shows that Vote Police has  dropped in dollar-terms (using 2008 Dollars as the base), and in 2015/16, the Police will be allocated $1.422 billion (in 2008 dollars) – compared to the $1.445 billion in 2008.

‘Vote Police’ – Budgets 2008-2015 – Total Annual and Permanent Appropriations

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vote police 2008 - 2016

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* Using Reserve Bank NZ Inflation Adjuster from Budget Month/Year Q2 dollars into 2008 Q2 dollars. (http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/inflation_calculator/)

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reserve bank inflation calculator

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(Field parameters above: calculating 2015 budgetted $1,609,173 into 2008 dollars.)

Inflation, coupled with a National government, have not been kind to our Police.

National is far from being the “Law and Order” party it makes out to be.  Any “success” it claims to have achieved, has been done with smoke, mirrors, and falsified reporting of statistics.

The question is; do burglars know they are supposed to be committing 30% less break-ins to peoples’ homes? Let’s hope they got the  memo from the Minister’s office.

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References

TVNZ: Q+A – Police Association president steps down

NZ Herald:  Police made burglaries vanish

NZ Herald:  Two-year search for ‘ghost crimes’ truth

NZ Herald:  Police deny being caught out by false review claims

NZ Herald: Measuring poverty line not a priority – Bennett

Treasury: Budget 2008

Treasury: Budget 2014

Treasury: Budget 2015

Previous related blogposts

National, on Law and Order

Purchasing “justice” on the New Zealand open market

Other Blogs

The Daily Blog: National’s ghost crime stats

The Daily Blog: So Judith Collins was aware of Police ghost stats? What if David Cunliffe had done the same?

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organised-crime-cartoon

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18 Comments

  1. Gosman says:

    That is not what Greg O’Connor stated. He stated that the Crime Statistics are coming down because the funding is focused on the big ticket items such as Violent Crime. Other areas aren’t getting the attention but then again they haven’t been the focus before either.

    • Please provide me with the comments from O’Connor that you dispute I’ve interpreted correctly.

    • XRAY says:

      Gosman, you are delusional if you think crime is really down.

      National cut the police budget firstly by 10% under then minister Judith Collins and then they had to “voluntarily save” 19% under minister Anne Tolley and yet with those massive cuts they still manage to cut ” reported crime” by an equivalent amount. Praise the lord, it’s a miracle, turning water into wine, it’s a parting of the sea’s miracle no less,

      If police officers through one means or another stop targeting criminals, stop arresting for offences they could then THAT alone dumps your reporting of crime. Franks second to last paragraph is the honest truth, our crime stats are a sham, pure bullshit!. National through their manipulating ways never got tough on crime, they simply got tough on the truth! Just like bloody near everything else they have ever touched in the Key era, its a lie.

    • Taylor says:

      Gosman, I heard what O’Conner said and your version of it is completely false. Do you really think we’re that stupid to take your word for it when O’Conner’s comments are two clicks away?????

    • Satan (aka Toby) says:

      Gosman, you tell lies. That is not what O’Connor said. Is that the best you can do??

  2. richarquis says:

    Don’t forget the omission of Domestic Violence from the stats – http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10799480

    Also note that the stats are due to be reintroduced this year, so expect some new spin on the matter when the media or opposition notice an increase. https://nzfvc.org.nz/news/agencies-express-concerns-over-crime-statistics

  3. CLEANGREEN says:

    Yes frank,

    When we know now how Government has placed the Commissioner of police office under the Government now, we know the police are now just another hollowed out vessel of Government propaganda eh like the Stasi, “The Ministry for State Security (German: Ministerium für Staatssicherheit, MfS)”?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi

  4. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    Wow so Greg ‘cops should be armed at all times and have free reign to use deadly force whenever they feel like it without risk of conviction’ O’Connor actually said something truthful? Has hell frozen over?

  5. Sam Sam says:

    Possibly but no. Because not too many cops can be trusted to the same degree to do something like that as your average riflemen it seems?

    More realistically, is not having to worry about legal crap in Iraq or Afghanistan nearly so much may play a role. We could go in, clear the place, own it, turn some buildings into command posts, and drown the place in persistent patrols during a Surge. Not like we could be sued really, though carelessness could drive locals into not helping anymore, and when paid for damages it is basically relative pocketchange due to the cost of living being so stupid low in such places.

    Kind of hard to get away with that in NZ itself without declaring martial law.

    Keep the gun slingers in the 1st NZ SAS. They get 2 million per year to learn how to shot properly in populated urban areas. Armed offenders squad is lucky to get 100,000 each per year and they can’t even shoot there way out of a paper bag.

    We really need a WHOLE lot more information to inform this debate before making policy decisions.

  6. wanafli says:

    By the tone of his comments, how is he leaving, jumped or pushed? He sounds bitter, a man with nothing to lose.

  7. fatty says:

    Crime stats are notoriously unreliable. Reported domestic violence stats can go up in the wake of campaigns such as ‘It’s not OK”. This rise is more likely to be an outcome of empowering the victim, which is a good thing.

    However, what is not a good thing is our levels of domestic violence, regardless of how accurate the figures are. I doubt anyone can claim we don’t have a social/cultural problem on our hands.

    Violent crime has generally decreased across the West since the 1990s. Academics have struggled to come up with a reason for this decline – it doesn’t matter if: cops are armed; prison sentences reduced or extended; broken windows stupidity is implemented; or inequality goes up or down, etc. The decrease has been difficult to pinpoint. But of course morons like Greg O’Connor will pat themselves on the back and claim credit for the decrease. We could’ve replaced the pigs with monkeys and the result probably would’ve been the same. Some say it’s a demographic shift – population getting older. I tend to agree but I’d also say it’s society adjusting to violent individualistic changes in our economic and social systems from the 70s to the 90s.

    Greg O’Connor won’t be missed – he’ll disappear down the drain like a dog shit on a rainy day. At least the cops might have a chance of being respected if they don’t get another prick to be their face. The only time I feel sorry for the cops is when I see Greg on TV making them look like fascists. Good riddance.

    Maybe National have finally found someone worthy of taking over Sabin’s seat in Northland.

  8. countryboy says:

    Paula Bennett . ” What has been seen cannot be un-seen. ” The sight of that ‘woman’ puts forward a compelling argument for alcoholism, blindness and castration.

    She must be a barge ?? Because she’s clearly full of dung. Both literally and metaphorically. How did she stuff that three seater sofa into her neck pouch? Her eyes, neck , nose combo look like God borrowed then from Mrs Potato Head , stuck them into a plug of clay then slapped on a frock .

    Is that a crucifix ‘ she’s ‘ ( ? ) wearing ? Then, clearly there is no God because she’s ( ? ) not been struck by lightening . Maybe God doesn’t have lighting bolts in her ( ? ) size? Was she ( ? ) ever a Welsh coal miner ? Because, those forearm’s ?

    Is she asking God? Send me more meat because I have the teeth for it and just meat thanks . Vegetables are for the weak, the vulnerable, the beneficiaries and the solo mothers what I was once but we won’t talk about that . Now, gimme MEAT ! ? Babies ? Kittens ? Any kind o’ meat ?

    Paula Bennet . NZ’s Number One criminal .

    See kids , this is what you get if you take your eye off your politics. The next time , 2017 actually, you decide to get stoned and stay home and play Games instead of slouching to a voting booth ? Think of this creature closing in on you. The Gamers version of the fourth dimension . Where the monsters are real, and they’re coming for you !
    She ( ? ) will fuck your life up, therefore by proxy, you will fuck your kids lives up because she will have you living under such enormous and mounting pressures on all levels that you’re going to blow. No two ways around that and then , then , and this is where it gets funky, you’re kids, once having been laid waste by her by remote control via you are now equally fucked up and in turn will fuck their kids lives up and so on and so on. Welcome to the Criminals of Tomorrow Land.

    bennett doing that to you will only take her a few years. To instil in you self loathing, fear which will become unfocused rage and self harm like addictions and suicide and then you will be gone.

    Undoing that damage is a herculean job. It takes years of intensive therapy and very, very complex societal involvement to re – humanise those who suffer abuse. The kind of abuse bennett pushes on you, the unwary.

    The most horrible and awful element of her machinations is that she knows the 1 %ers will make a killing, both literally and metaphorically, out of your dysfunction when you’re thrown in prison. You are , after all , the unwitting leverage the insurers need to peddle their dis-ease. The Banks come in to assuge your anxiety. The Banks and Insurers work as a tag team, playing you off against the rest of society via the MSM and the cops.

    You have been warned. Vote !

    Driving your mates to the voting booth ? Legend .

    This is YOUR country . Not theirs. Demand that they make decisions for you . Not them demanding that you acquiesce to them .

  9. reason says:

    The police game their statistics ( falsify ) to meet their ministers ‘targets’ ……. Judith Collins when she was police minister was endlessly bragging about the crime statistics going drastically down under her police empowering leadership………… Like much of what comes out of her and keys lips it was a fraudulent and a lie.

    Why did the police do it then and are probably still doing it now ??????? …… Because officers others in the police get promoted and their careers are based on meeting their ministers targets.

    On greg O’Coner …………. I’ve always thought with his high profile and authoritarian attitude would enter the National party as a mp.

    Mark ‘bite them till they scream’ Mitchell is the sole ex-policeman now sitting as a national party mp……….. after his compatriot ex-police detective Mike Sabin had to resign from parliament for reason nobody’s allowed to talk about …

    sabin may well be Keys dirtiest political actions and maneuvers of all …… but the power of the state is keeping suppressed …. for now .

    Maybe greg could stand in Sabins old electorate ……………….. Winston would love it 🙂

  10. Sam Sam says:

    We have an unseen / undescribed force pushing statistics in opposite directions. Call centre stats and reported crimes should track in roughly the same direction.

  11. Mike the Lefty says:

    As I have said in previous posts: you can no longer trust statistics that this National government puts out. Another of National’s achievements – the transformation of the Department of Statistics into the Department of Spin.

    • Sam Sam says:

      Yeah but National party policy and puppets are known. Same with labour, Thier is also un described forces creating abnormal court rulings and sentences, a good mother and community leader for instances going to jail for pot, months longer than pedophiles?.

      We can see the effects of this undescribed force but what is it that forces the numbers in opposite directions?

      Like with Black holes, you can’t see it, because it absorbed all light but you can see its effects warping space and time around it, pushing them in different directions.

      What ever it is, it is sucking billions into it, where it goes, no body knows.

  12. Satan (aka Toby) says:

    Nice work, Frank.

  13. […] blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 30 October […]



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