BELIEVE IT OR NOT, the Labour Party is currently engaged in a critically important political campaign. No, it may not look like Labour is doing very much at all at the moment, but that is the whole point. After the sheer mayhem of the last four years, a period of tranquillity is crucial to Labour’s chances of re-election.
All of the party’s research suggests that by the end of 2014 the New Zealand public was fed up to the back teeth with Labour. As far as most voters were concerned the party was a joke. It seemed to specialise in choosing the wrong people to lead it. Its caucus was incapable of even the most perfunctory political discipline. Indeed, there were some MPs who clearly got a bigger thrill out of sticking the knife into the back of a colleague than they did from sticking it into the front of the Government. The party organisation was no better. It delighted in choosing Party List candidates that struck many of its voters and potential voters as having been drawn from a carefully prepared list of the politically bizarre and/or the simply unelectable. (Which may well have been true!)
As 2015 loomed, what Labour most needed to do was to get its name out of headlines. No more leadership elections. No more Caucus back-stabbing. No more shots of furious rank-and-file party members calling for the heads of the “Anyone But Cunliffe” faction. The new leader, Andrew Little’s, best course of action, after he’d spent a little time reassuring the voters that he could string together a coherent English sentence, and that he wasn’t in the least bit sorry for being a man, was to say and do as little as possible and just let the people of New Zealand get used to him.
And that, if you think about it, is pretty much what Labour has been doing all year – as little as possible. With the honourable exception of Phil Twyford, who has been waging a solid, one-man-war against the Government’s disastrous housing policies, the Labour Opposition has assiduously (and largely successfully) avoided making a fool of itself. Its key strategists figure that if it can avoid making a fool of itself for another six months, then the electorate might just be ready to start treating it as a serious electoral option.
This is an extremely difficult strategy to sell to the sort of left-wing activists who read The Daily Blog. Their preference is for a campaigning Labour Party that is ready and willing to take the fight directly to the National Party enemy. Activists are never happier than when delivering righteous blows to the people’s enemies. Deliver enough of these, the activists are convinced, and the “missing million” will shake themselves free of their apathetic torpor and, falling in behind their progressive government-in-waiting, deliver Labour a landslide victory.
Except that is not what the polling and the focus groups are telling Labour. Nor does it reflect the findings of the academic research. Enjoying the confidence of the activist Left is not a necessary pre-condition to electoral victory in New Zealand. What is required is the confidence of a substantial plurality of the New Zealanders who vote. People aged 35 and up, in work, and comfortably housed. People who do not live and breathe politics, but who pay enough attention to formulate a reasonably strong view about who can and cannot be entrusted with running the country. The prevailing opinion among these voters is that National, its growing list of miss-steps notwithstanding, is still the party best equipped to govern New Zealand. Labour’s job over the next 18 months is to convince them otherwise.
To do that Andrew Little must do two things. First, he must establish a connection with the people who vote. Second, that connection must, very rapidly, be reinforced by convincing the people who vote that he has the personal and political wherewithal to actually do what he says he will do. In other words: he must come across to the people who vote as a credible proposition for the role of Prime Minister. The two “Cs” – Connection and Credibility – are what Little and Labour are struggling to achieve. And right now the best way to do that is for him to do as close to nothing as it’s possible to get away with.
A big part of “doing nothing” is arranging opportunities for the sort of people who influence others to be influenced by the Leader of the Opposition. Quiet gatherings of community and business leaders with plenty of opportunities to exchange a few well-chosen sentences with the man who would be king. Leaving behind, hopefully, a few dozen impressed punters who will tell their friends and colleagues the next day: “You know that Andrew Little’s not a bad bloke.”
Yes, I know, it sounds banal – and not at all like the stuff of which revolutions are made. But a huge amount of contemporary politics is banal. And it’s precisely because John Key does banal with such extraordinary aplomb that he has broken every record of political popularity this country has ever set.
Banal is what gets you elected.
At some point, however, Andrew Little is going to have to give the voters something more than an absence of embarrassing headlines. Part of establishing that all-important connection with the people who vote is to say or do something powerful enough to bind them – the politician and the voters – together. By far the most effective way of doing this is through words and gestures; symbolic moments that imprint themselves on the voters’ minds; events that leave people thinking: “That guy would make a damn good prime minister.”
So far, Andrew Little has not managed to do this. His “cut the crap” comment was a promising start, but it was more the product of good luck than good management. In his quest to achieve the two “Cs”, he could, therefore, do a lot worse than to take a leaf out of the new Green Party co-leader’s, James Shaw’s, political play-book. Whether by good luck or good management, Shaw managed to find himself an immensely talented speech-writer. Danyl McLauchlan will likely prove invaluable in helping his boss master the two “Cs”. Andrew Little, while he’s busy doing nothing, needs to be doing something about finding a wordsmith of his own.
Ah yes , the power of the word!
Sorry . I seem to have missed something here.
Where are the examples of the great lines and speeches that Key used to gain power?
Answer. There aren’t any.
If you are going to talk about Labour Party activists you also need to mention the National Party activists, ie , large sectors of the media.
I remember when David Cunliffe first got the leadership he used a great line that he “was not going to stand by and see hope dying in the eyes of the young”.
What was reported? That a portrait hanging in his electorate office, painted by and given to him by a sick child was a “sign of Cunliffes vanity.”
He then went on to give his ‘State of the Nation Speech’, one of the best speeches given by any N.Z politician since David Lange. The place was packed, people spilling out into surrounding courtyards. At the end, a standing ovation.
What was reported… Hosking ,primetime 7pm,..”What a bunch of morons for giving a speech on a public holiday “.
The Womans Refuge Speech . Proven, looking at the latest sickening data , to be timely and insightful , was warm , compassionate, beautifully composed and delivered. One minute standing ovation at the end.
How was it reported… Well we all know the puerile and childish “oh look , he’s sorry for being a man ” garbage that was trotted out.
These people in the media choose to be puerile and obtuse. They are i National Party activists. It is is a massive deception and a lie to say that they are not!
Why does Radio Live not have mornings with Martyn Bradbury and afternoons with Dita De Boni.
Lets have ‘7 Sharp’ fronted by Selwyn Manning and Chloe King and Lets have ‘Story ‘ fronted by Simon Prast and Mihinirangi Forbes.
Then and only then would you see a substantial shift in the mindset of the passionless people.
I deal with people from all backgrounds in my work and the’ Waitakere Men’ amongst them are telling me they now see that Keys a “lying bastard” and “full of shit” and have told me,”mate, i want someone who is not afraid to f**king speak out loudly, stick their head above the f**king pulpit , call a spade a f**king spade and not f**king well back down or change tack.”
Read from that what you will , but with Key importing votes at a rate of 50,000 a year and the total shut down of critical media it’s as they say in sports terminology going to be a “big ask” !!
Sorry a I pushed the wrong button. I meant to give you an up-vote. I totally agree. The media has a huge part to play in making or breaking a politician. Cunliffe couldn’t do anything right even when he did do something right. As for the Labour party – what Labour party? Labour National no difference. If there is no difference between them then why bother voting? And when Little does wake up and do something, no duobt he will get the same treatment Cunliffe received.
Excellent , Grant – bang on – you’ve highlighted exactly what I posted about …this party..Labour …did to their elected leader…David Cunliffe..
That speech …as I watched on you tube was spine chilling…
It was old time New Zealand…the sort of values we once prided ourselves on. I was elated at Cunliffes speech.
And he delivered it magnificently.
And what did they do to him?
They crucified him. Julius Caesar…..
Et Tu BRUTUS?
That’s what they did to a man who was genuinely trying to move this country…and what did the MSM have to offer ?
That he keeps wearing a red tie , that he was complicit in a donation that later was proven to be fictitious :
That the NZ Herald clearly fabricated in order to serve their National party masters.
And where was so many of the Labour party caucus?…snickering and mocking Cunliffe from the back rooms and sidelines…absolutely sick.
That’s why they deserve the pain they’re feeling at the moment. That’s why those who orchestrated that result need to take their medicine..simply for their own treachery.
And what was that snide comment about ” bringing back Moa’s…small ones , ..ones that I could pat ” all about , huh ?!!?
Planned right at the start of the campaign tailored to mock and discredit Cunliffes start to the pre election build up before it even gained momentum…
THESE are the sorts of reasons people have lost confidence in anything Labour has to say .
Because of the constant , and continued , backstabbing and infighting and self protection of petty fiefdoms that so many in its caucus are continuously trying to defend to the exclusion of anybody else.
As a consequence , – it has no relevance whatsoever at all to a population that desperately seeks a viable alternative to the duplicitous and scandalous government that we have now..
Cunliffe was a heretic, a dangerous heretic who with momentum behind him could have undone much of the neo-liberal wet dream. Far too dangerous for that to happen here and globally.
He was smart, eloquent, passionate and heaven-forbid (like James Shaw) had been a business consultant (they hate it when one of their own jumps ship – cue Kim Dotcom).
I think his main failing was a naivete about how low his various enemies would go to hobble him.
Right on the money E- CLECTIC
Hear, hear! As long as Labour continue to either flail blindly in political limbo, or sit on their collective hands and hope for the best, they’ll not get my vote. Fucking DO something! (Kudos to Phil Twyford who IS actually putting the boot into National over social housing. It’s a shame his passion and enthusiasm isn’t contagious.)
P.S. John Campbell should definitely replace the insipid Guyon Espiner on National Radios’ Morning Report and i think i would have afternoons with Chris Trotter talking art ,history ,culture and music to replace the soporific Jim Snora!
PPS.
The dream team concludes with Kim Hill , National Radio 5pm -7pm weekdays!
Your point regarding the effect of immigrant voting patterns is well made Grant. I wonder if labour strategists have a response planned as Auckland is the vital battleground in MMP elections. The dilution of longer lived kiwi electoral experience with reportedly conservative new citizens votes may counteract the growing distaste for Key’s regime if this is not addressed.
Hear! Hear! Grant. You have summed the situation up beautifully. A good article Chris but Grant gives you the answer.
“Bring back the Highlander,” (David Cunliffe that is). Cunliffe was the only person so far that made total mincemeat of Key and his sick pack of cronies. Key had the camp of Dirty Politics and black opps cheating his way to win, it makes me sick to think he got away with that, and more… over and over again. Key is a poisonous rat who needs a rat dog to flush him and his bottom feeding corrupt cronies out.
I miss David Cunliffe’s compassion and passion. Also many of the issues Cunliffe cared about eg bowel screening (RNZ recently had a feature about how important this issue is and how the flag referendum was wasted money which should be spent on the next stage of public screening). It also looks like NZers are being pushed over the tipping point with this cold winter, power bills and climate change weather bombs. David was going to regulate the electricity providers, now their snouts are in that trough like parasites making money from people trying not to freeze to death.
But no, we have to put up with more bullshit from the Key’s ‘happy happy joy joy’, idiots planning on siphoning us all till we look like the Pod slaves from the movie the Dark Crystal, where the monsters drink the Podlings vital essence, and fight over being emperor, sounds familiar.
Wrong! Wrong! and wrong again!
The group correctly identified as needing winning over need to see a solid critique of the governments economic strategy – many are starting to worry.
MG there is enough ammunition lying around and no one is using it.
6 years of record terms of trade and solid GDP growth and what is there to show for it – mounting debt, over dependence on dairy?
Secondly they need to energise all those out there who don’t vote as they only see a pale pseudo neoliberal reflection of the government.
Andrew Little may be a nice man but his persona is that of a grey cardigan wearing anachronism, certainly not one to stir the blood.
I met Phil Twyford not so long ago…at a particular function… not a bad chap…considered , quietly spoken..and as is typical in those situations…one has to choose ‘ on the spot ‘ the most succinct and to the point viewpoints as one can…
He struck me as an earnest and in touch man with the needs not just of his electorate…but of the wider issues…
All power to Phil Twyford.
And yes the point is…for want of better words…damage control on behalf of the Labour party…but lets not forget…much of it was brought on by themselves…hence the need for people to bother being activists…a response to the inertia by that party’s inability to at the very least show some sort of group coherency .
And shouldn’t the public deserve more if they are to invest a significant part of their future security with those who will be the leaders?
Would it not behoove them to respond to the public’s criticisms to what has already become glaringly obvious to all those barring the inner circle of that party in a timely fashion ?
The truth is …they have failed to do so…and in an act of passive arrogance of their own brand …..have become equally as arrogant as those on the far right could be perceived.
Time and time again they have been told, warned and admonished – but completely failed to heed those warnings.
Should a movement that has failed to adjust to that criticism be excused and allowed to carry on blithely ignoring what is patently obvious? Should there not have been any consequences at all ?
So now they have suffered those consequences and paid the price for their lack of introspection and division…and rightly so…..the people of this country deserve better.
And while it may be all very fine to ‘ lay low ‘ to make a ‘come back ‘ as it were…
I cannot remember a time in this country where we have had a more corrupt , duplicitous , – and quite frankly – dangerous government in this country as the one we are currently dealing with at present.
Labour has had ample opportunity to have torn this govt to shreds – literally.
Time and again we have been witness to incident after incident that should have seen major inquiry’s – Royal Commissions of Inquiry – into the type of corrupt and bald faced transgressions of our democratic and legal processes that this current govt is so ‘ banally ‘ excused with .
And personally ?
I don’t think that’s good enough.
Nowhere near good enough.
And I know that I’m not alone in observing this.
A cursory glance through … ‘ Hackpad : Honest John ‘ on the internet will demonstrate all the historical evidence. As will blogs such as this – in fact – keeping up with the news as it unfolds , yet further adding to the absolute debacle that is the National party government.
It baffles the logic to sit and wonder -‘ Well,what are you all waiting for ??”
That Labour and so many of the opposition party’s all seem so hamstrung and impotent in dealing with this corrupt government.
Is it proof they want?
Well that’s what a Royal Commission of Inquiry is supposed to all be about !!! The truth !!!
Or is it that they simply endorse this situation because one day if they get into power they also do not want to be hamstrung by petty considerations such as what the public may actually want?
Frankly …the inherent double edged sword of ‘ doing nothing ‘ and ‘ playing it safe ‘….means that you end up being seen as a joke – worse….that you are dismissed out of hand as being irrelevant , not credible and having nothing meaningful or valid to say or offer that is any different than the loathsome party with which you want to replace.
Labour has got a long , long way to go yet…and the sooner they start acting on all this mountain of duplicity of this current National government the better their chances will be.
And that is , …if they really , really mean it at all.
Agreed Grant – it’s no time to be quiet!
With the TPPA looming, Labour should be shouting from the roof tops, or anywhere where someone will hear them – as you say it won’t be on MSM.
They are going have to think outside the square!
And yes Key is importing votes at a great rate of knots.
Always assuming that Labour has a policy opposing the TPPA , rather than one of amending it.
As I understand it, TPPA can’t be amended or exited once entered into.
Not only is Key importing votes at a great rate of knots but hes driving out indigenous vote, the rates of the houses in Auckland is so high now people who have lived in Auckland for years have to sell because they cant afford the rates,and who buys the houses,? the imported votes of course.
Seems Mr Do Little agrees with Key far too often.Keeping quiet gets him nowhere , by the time Little has found his voice it will be too late to do anything ,hes getting paid for doing nothing,stupid strategy.
‘And it’s precisely because John Key does banal with such extraordinary aplomb that he has broken every record of political popularity this country has ever set.’
Totally believable except for the giant herd of dirty politics elephants in the living room.
I have had a change of mind in the last few months. If you look at elections around the world over the last 20 years does any left-of-centre party win unless they have a charismatic leader? You might say Helen Clark didn’t, but she was also leader of the opposition for nearly 10 years – will Little have to wait that long…
Robinson is the more Charismatic.
Grant Robertson is the Manuel ( Fawlty Towers ) of NZ politics. A waste of space!. He is absolutely useless as finance spokesperson. If only his talent matched his ambition. Labour needs to get over itself.They are lazy, arrogant and boring. We are not interested in Labour because Labour MP’s are by and large uninteresting. Yes the media is dominated by Key’s sycophants. Where is the mongrel? these people have had cushy lives and they are all set to continue having cushy lives. They do not give a shit! And quite frankly why should we give we give a shit about them?. They do not deserve our support. Yes there are some true fighters in there but they are few and far between. I cannot muster ANY respect for the majority of them . Most of them should be sacked!Labour will NEVER get my vote again after their treatment of Cunliffe. F**k em.
Don’t think I would actually ever vote for Labour, I never have and probably never will, this is just my thoughts based on preferring Labour to National.
It doesn’t matter too much on how smart the leader is, just that they are charismatic.
I think the reason Key is so popular is the he genuinely doesn’t care about politics much and this matches the feeling of much of the electorate. This is a rare trait that is nigh impossible to find on the left and so the best bet may be charisma.
I think the reason Key is so popular is the he genuinely doesn’t care about
politicsNew Zealand much and this matches the feeling of much of the electorate, who look to themselves rather than the nation.FIFY
[Little] could, therefore, do a lot worse than to take a leaf out of the new Green Party co-leader’s, James Shaw’s, political play-book. Whether by good luck or good management, Shaw managed to find himself an immensely talented speech-writer. Danyl McLauchlan
Obviously this development has impressed Chris. But imo, eloquent set-speeches do not necessarily make for a political winner.
Shaw replaces Norman, who could think on his feet and out perform almost all other MPs when in the House. The Right loathed him.
Time will tell if planned rhetoric rather than razor-edged repartee is the better path.
@ r.christie..
as a person who watches q-time i hafta tell ya that the performances by shaw in that forum – and the fact a party leader in the greens does not become a de facto dictator – swung me from opposing him as green leader – to supporting him in that role..
..so yes..a wordsmith will help – and yes..most certainly little/labour need a brace of them – to attempt some coherence in what they are/what they stand for – if nothing else..
but like norman – shaw is more than adept at that dark-art of the follow-up question – wordsmith or no wordsmith..(something else labour aren’t quite up to speed with..)
btw..without going into details – that added lustre of a wordsmith aside was pretty much all that i agreed with in that piece from trotter..
Here’s to hoping your assessment is accurate, Phillip!
Give the strategy away why don’t you. Labour just needs to start being the next government and stop engaging with those fools, engage with the people of new Zealand.
“Whether by good luck or good management, Shaw managed to find himself an immensely talented speech-writer. Danyl McLauchlan will likely prove invaluable in helping his boss master the two “Cs”. Andrew Little, while he’s busy doing nothing, needs to be doing something about finding a wordsmith of his own.” Ow, Trotter, feckity ow. Are you putting your hand up?
Good post btw
What a “great” post, well designed to give John Key and his Natsies a fourth term. Thank you Chris, what “great” advice or analysis???
So I hear David Shearer pipe up again, raising the price of milk. Yawn, we have been through these debates again and again over the years, how NZ supermarket prices are higher than in many other comparable developed countries, and NOTHING is ever done about it.
Hence coming up with such an idea, in front of media and in the House, that will certainly give Labour much attention and credit, I suppose. What happened with the policy to exempt fresh fruit and veges from GST by the way?
And for some time now, others in Labour have been going on about ACC levies being too high? Why have they not been reduced more, they argue, like Sue Moroney, challenging the government to reduce them more, for drivers and others.
ACC invests funds, and that is pure capitalism, on the world market, and they have got some “sound” returns, so they have more cash. Yet at the other end, there are still many claimants for loss of earnings and so, who do not get certain treatments funded, or get lump sum payments denied.
So what is Labour planning to achieve with this talk about ACC levies having to come down? It may benefit some drivers, yes, give them cheaper driving, adding to road congestion, great!
Then there was the hype about the MoBIE sign, costing 140 k, the hair straighteners, and so, well yes, I agree, it sounds a bit wasteful, so Joyce told off the CE. What else was achieved? It gives us the impression that Labour will run a tight ship if back in government, maybe more “austere” than National?
There has been justified criticism of swamp Kauri log exports, but again, hardly an issue that will raise the eye-brows of thousands out there, same as some other recent attempts by Labour to get some media attention.
In my view they come across as “petty” now, as if they are looking for anything little that they can get their hands on, to raise and attack the government.
So with that, I wonder what Chris is on about with this post? Andrew Little has got a low profile, it seems, as Winston Peters seems to be the more noticed opposition leader, while a new Greens co-leader is still learning the ropes from Metiria.
As I feared “Angry Andy” is not coming across that well, still below support levels that even Shearer and Cunliffe enjoyed.
Maybe it is the fear of this hopelessly one-sided, superficial media we now have, where news items are reported one after another, and nothing gets researched and investigated much, where it is of more “importance” who says what about whom, and who made the last faux pas on Twitter.
What does Labour stand for again? We are told it will soon deliver some policy, perhaps next year, in time before the next election? What about the living wage or minimum wage, what can we expect? What will be on offer for tax reforms, for welfare reform, for health, education, and for trade and policing and other areas?
I fear there will be a potpourri of little bits, not that much different from what we have now, so as to not “upset” the media and voters, those in that “centre”, I presume.
With some email alerts they send out now, some of their appeals seem petty, there is no courage, no big plan, much criticism of the government (that deserves it), but NO vision, nothing to get excited about. It wonder whether this is not all rather due to lack of ideas and inspiring policy, and lack of courage, that Little and Labour do mostly keep their heads down, rather than some strategy.
The voters, like I, wonder where the opposition is to be found, we do not see or hear much robust opposition, it is nowhere to be found.
It is a rather sad state of affairs, in my view.
Chris has a point of course, but I cant help thinking that it is not all Labour’s fault for the lack of press coverage of the Opposition but more the lack of Journo’s and MSM to go out and ask for comments and reaction from ALL opposition parties.
It was clear to all around the election time that most attention was given to the NatZ machinery and little to Cunliffe that smelt of pure corruption of free press to be “balanced as we expected, and now after election the continuation is apparent.
I say again for the seventh time the opposition needs definitely now to come together and form a legal challenge in the court to take back the half of our public service media control to use for their balanced views of important issues that are about to wreck our country for decades, so Chris go out and advocate for this please before we are all sunk mate.
Grant, why didn’t you write the blog for CT? A bit out of touch CT. If you were a friend of Andrew Little on FB you would know that he is doing a decent job getting out there and meeting people. Dunedin after their flooding episode, Whanganui, after their flooding episode, and the East Coast with Stuart Nash to name a few. He’s finding out from the people in the street and business people what is really going on in the small towns and regions. People are asking him to go to their region. CT, if you were a paid up member you would have been inundated with bloody petitions from MPs I hadn’t even heard of. There is a movement. You want to be part of it or do you want to sit back and have some Fronterra reject cheese with that whine. Me, I’m even supporting the Greeks on Go fund me. At least it’s doing something useful.
Schmoozing with movers & shakers is all very well Chris, but at point Labour needs some policies that make sense to the population group you so correctly described.
This is where their problems lie. Are we going to see a re-run of the hilarious ‘caravans in the fast lane’ transport policy or Parker’s capital gains tax that was shot to pieces in public debate? Is there enough talent left to formulate good policy? Will disunity continue to prevent consistent policies being developed?
So I suggest that whilst Labour is busy keeping its collective mouth shut, it starts to do the homework necessary to formulate some cohesive policies that make sense to us:- the working, non-unionised, employed and fairly comfortable majority.
Really? Norm Kirk and David Lange were anything but banal, Chris.
Mind you, on the other hand, perhaps the collective psyche of this country has changed so much that banality is now a positive virtue. How else could one explain the popularity of “reality” TV?
If we learnt anything from Dirty Politics, it’s that “banal” is a front.
If Labour is going to do “banal” then they need an organisation quietly working in the background that is dismantling the structures of the right and their people in key places and building a new political infrastructure. The right have no problem doing this because they innately know it’s all about power while the left wring their hands over principles and nitpick over philosophical nuances.
Tahi. Unity. That’s where it starts.
Positive alternatives please to the current traitors we have running the country. Not to much to ask, one would think.
I think Andrew Little has proven himself as a leader just by keeping Labour out of the headlines for some months now.
Andrew Little is a union man but is determined to put New Zealand on a track that is different from both the union strikes of the past and different from the crony capitalism we have seen under National.
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