EXCLUSIVE: Te Tai Tokerau independent poll (44% Hone-27% Kelvin) vs Maori TV poll (38% Hone – 37% Kelvin)

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The Te Tai Tokerau Maori TV poll on Monday this week painted a bleak picture for Internet MANA supporters, and it’s results have been seized upon by Labour, NZ First and even the Maori Party (who seem set once again to throw another Maori Party candidate under a bus for utu) to attack Hone and kill off MANA.

With so many political forces lining up to take Te Tai Tokerau’s mana from the voters of Te Tai Tokerau, it’s interesting what an independent poll taken at the same time as the Maori TV poll had to say when online Te Tai Tokerau voters are mixed in with landline voters.

Over 30% of Maori don’t have landlines so using landline polling creates immense distortions. The last landline poll for the electorate during the 2011  by-election had the same result as Maori TVs and claimed Hone was only ahead of Kelvin by 1%, Hone ended up beating Kelvin by 9%.

Maori electorates are far poorer than general electorate seats so the landline bias, which the Maori TV Poll was generated from, is far greater, that’s apparent in the Independent Poll results I’ve managed to get a copy of.

Here are the results of the independent poll using a mix of landline and online polling…

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 10.56.57 pm

…when the methodology is opened up, it produces a result far more in favour of Hone with a 44% lead over Kelvin’s 27%.

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 10.58.41 pmThe media focus to date has been the Maori TV landline poll and that has led to a perception Hone’s position is under threat, this independent poll tells a very different story.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

The mainstream media have been very wrong about a great deal of things this election, Hone losing his seat is but one of them.

 

UPDATE: Sanctimonious Labour Party arsehole, Rob Salmond has posted a bitchy and petty blog on his ill read and poorly visited  vanity project, ‘Polity.co.nz’

Screen Shot 2014-09-19 at 12.29.28 pm

…the Maori TV poll was started in July, the Independent Poll was taken in July. Rob Salmond’s need to stay relevant has descended into slagging me off. I don’t bother posting your comments on this site Rob because you an arsehole Labour Party Troll that I don’t bother feeding.  You didn’t even read the bloody blog properly before you started putting the boot in.

Now bugger off clown.

18 COMMENTS

  1. This is heartening, but it does date from July, so may be less representative of current voting patterns. Any chance of a more recent version?

    • It was taken same time as Maori TV poll – and a more recent one? COME ON, getting that was impressive enough!

  2. Hone is the true voice of Te Tai Tokerau. More than that, his is the most consistently compassionate voice for the 200,000+ children who go to school hungry month after month. Those children don’t have a voice in this election – Hone speaks for them!

    For Shame, Winston, that you have directed your voters to turn away from Mr Harawira. Aotearoa will be poorer if Mana is no longer there.

    • I saw cuneliffe himself endorsing davis on telly at exactly the ame time that maori,samuels,nz first and key did….its been orchestrated imho,with the kneecapping of conservative with implied smear on a sceretry leving being msm release as “bombshell” whilst describing “moment of truth” as a “fizzer.”
      Clearly the opposite is in fact true…..snowden has been 100% reliable and respected wordwide, whereas nz media has been proven to be 100% unreliable. Make no mistake,the combined nature and timing of the attack on inetmana imho leave no doubt this has been planned since probably shane jones bribery and defection. Unprecedented treachery imho.

        • ahem..but key maori party nz 1st endorsed him too…because they know its a good tactical move for the right.Yes? My point is David supported a move that is good for the right,and minimised chances of seats for the left.
          What next,david encouraging labour to vote for act in Epsom??

  3. Te Hira Was NEVER going to get 9%.
    Not anyone I know in Whangarei voted for him. They all voted for Hone.
    One friend told me they were surprised because when they were in the booth with the pen, in their heart they chose Hone.

  4. Releasing such a dated result a week out from the election is what bugs me. Polls do shape opinion. The Maori Party tried to get Te Hira Paenga to give up the race so his support could vote Labour, on the strength of that result.

    I think Native Affairs Producer’s should have run an updated poll or simply not published at all.

Comments are closed.