TV One and TV3 Political Polls – not such a landslide now

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Before the impact of Dirty Politics has been felt, the National Party high point in the Polls had been reached and their inevitable  drop begins. Despite the mainstream media telling NZers for almost 3 years that John Key would win by a landslide, previous poll averages show National drop 6 points as the election closes in.

This was always going to happen, and the level of negative publicity against National will only speed this process up.

To the polls…

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 6.25.27 pmScreen Shot 2014-08-17 at 6.25.16 pm

This is significant because if you take their landline bias into account, it could be that Labour are higher and National even lower than these polls claim.

Internet MANA on 4% huh? Are all my delightful critics on the Left quiet now? Nothing more from the cheap seats in Wellington?

Good.

Labour & Greens could never be the majority without relying on NZ First, who have always acted as a break peddle to progressive policy. A smaller party to the left of the Greens using a sub 5% threshold strategy was a solution and that strategy may hand NZ a momentous change.

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Labour need to hit 32% Greens 14% and Internet MANA 5% and we will have the most progressive Government in NZs political history. Now is the time to shake 3 years of mainstream media propaganda and realise just how close a genuine victory for change is brewing here.

Don’t let the evil of Slater and Co erode our passion, let the possibility of a genuine and real change of Government inspire us to the Polls. As TDB has pointed out since it’s creation, the election will be far closer than the mainstream media are pretending with far more on offer for real social justice.

38 COMMENTS

  1. Personally, I would love to see Laila Harre, or Metiria Turei telling FJK (especially FJK) and David Cunliffe to “pull their socks up or get out!”

    • Interestingly a month or so ago I predicted figures very close to the Colmar Brunton poll as being the likely situation a month out from the polls. I also said that; if the Internet Mana party reached 4% by that time it would go on to reach nearly 10%; that this would come at the expense of NZ First, who would not get 5%; and this failure, and the Conservatives, would lead to a high wasted vote; there will be an unusually high turn out that will work against National and for the IMP, and finally that if Labour does not make a serious attempt to accommodate the IMP, Labour runs the risk of sabotaging the election.
      Now we will see what Labour is really made of. I dont think it will be a pretty sight

      • “I also said that; if the Internet Mana party reached 4% by that time it would go on to reach nearly 10%”

        An interesting prediction. I had a peculiar dream nearly two months ago in which I was viewing the election results and in particular I can recall Internet Mana was 7%. A premonition of things to come?

  2. A large proportion of IPMana support comes from the youth. This sector of the electorate don’t use landlines and remain un-polled and thus statistically invisible. This is the sector which will kick this election in the balls … and this crowd into touch. The fallout from Hagars book will be felt right up to the election and bury them. Greenwald and 2 mystery guest’s revelations on the 15th will be the epitaph. There will be no resurrection.

  3. Our entire household whooped with delight at today’s TV3 poll.

    At 47.5% the Nats are near the 47.31% they won in the 2011 election.

    A governing party’s support will always fall during the campaign, as a contest of real ideas and campaign advertising is given equal prominence to government propaganda.

    It will be interesting to see how the “Dirty Politics” story impacts on National’s support.

    If it drops radically any further, Key may have to,

    1. Sack both Collins and Ede to mollify voters,

    2. Reverse his decision and do a deal with the Conservatives,

    3. Go for a tax cut policy – which is unaffordable and will put the govt back into debt – but that’s what “buying” an election is all about!

    I’ve said it for the last couple of years – expect a new government post 20 September. Key is history. And watch a brutal ‘knife fight’ between Collins/Slater and Steven Joyce for the National Party leadership.

    • The nats only have 7 days to pull candidates or the existing ones appear on the ballot papers so will be v. interesting what the GodKey decides.

      • Indeed it will be Tiger. Any further drop for the Nats and commensurate rise for the Conservatives will be making National’s tax-payer funded strategist very twitchy…

        I’m not sure if this can be likened to a game of chess or poker?

        • I dont believe here will be a rise in Conservative vote. Their vote is coming from xenophobic policies, which is usually a good election tactic. Unfortunately NZ First is trying to stake out the same territory. The outcome will be a wipe out for both. The cards are stacking nicely for IMP.

          • It depends how aggressive a player Colin Craig is. NZF and the CCCP are likely to fare best if there is a substantial protest vote – and conditions are good for a protest against the government’s dirty politics at the moment.

            The CCCP is somewhat behind NZFirst, and their socially conservative demographic is unlikely to approve the shenanigans that Key is comically trying to gloss over. It’s risky, but if Colin took the moral high ground and condemned the current National leadership, he might get to harvest the disenchanted group of uncorrupted National voters – another 5-10% at least. It would be fatal for this government, but frankly they’re toast atm anyway.

    • “And watch a brutal ‘knife fight’ between Collins/Slater and Steven Joyce for the National Party leadership.”

      @Frank Masckasy

      I can’t wait to bear witness, tweet by tweet! Will Collins/Blubber boy ‘double down’ on Joyce? You bet!

  4. Murray Smith is on the money, it will be the youth vote that decides this one, and its probably about time.
    The only good thing National has ever done is to piss off so many people, that these people, actually start to care about politics and where their country is heading – enough to vote.
    Got to thank Internet/Mana for also engaging the youth, and giving NZ a few more viable options.

    • Well , if whats coming out now about FJK, Collins, Slater etc keeps up…we are going to see precisely what sort of dirty little maggots have been masquerading as our government all these years.

      Basically…these people are and have been ‘pretenders’ and frauds for the last 6 years. In other words..if you have to hold up a political party through deceit, misusing of govt administrative wings , slanting public perception through unofficial websites…what do we call that?

      Fraudulence.

      Do we really want to have these people voted in as a pretend govt again?..that has an air of unreality about it now… and as said..come the 15th Sept…the foundations of Hagars book will be built on.

      And yes….we can be grateful for the IMP.

      It is just unfortunate that a certain german chappie had to be so shoddily abused by this maggot govt…

      But then again , …they always were their own worst enemies. So what goes around…will certainly be coming around.

  5. My bet is:

    Labour may narrowly make it, Greens will be strong, and NZ First will of course hit at least 6 to 7 percent, them making the new government.

    National will continue to slide from now on, the dream is over, certainly with the Hager revelations, no matter what Whalespoil and others may try to spin. Conservatives may get close to 5 percent, and against previous estimates, I do not rule out Internet Mana getting 5 percent.

    NO major party will govern on their own, and Labour will definitely have to eat humble pie, and David Cunliffe will have to talk with Greens, no doubt, and will likely choose Winston over IMP.

    IMP will be there if needed, if NZ First may start causing troubles. But apart from that, there will be a very close election.

    Winston seems very unlikely to warm to Key now, after the Hager revelations, I sense he is FURIOUS.

    So he will hope that Labour win, Greens stay within limits, and NZ First will get well over 5 or 6 percent. That will ensure him a key position in a future government, and despite all animosities, he will make a deal with the Greens, a tough one, but Russel and Metiria will agree, as they are equally desperate to bring a change, and be in government.

    I can almost see the election night results in front of my eyes.

    Key is a gonner, unless a miracle happens for him, and Colin Craig will miss out once again, that is his fate, as it has been for years.

    • I think you might be kinda right, however…I also think IMP will do very very well – seeing it is the new kid on the block… I just dont see the strong personalities involved in that party as anything but a growing new force…..indeed…more numbers to strengthen the Left.

      As such..it could very well be the start of a new era in NZ politics…a far more consensus based era.

      Also..we have yet to see the revelations on Sept 15th…this in all probability will nail home the move towards a Left centered politics in NZ. At last a return of true social democratic principles.

      In summary…I think the National party’s slogan of a ‘Bright Future ‘ is quite prophetic….but not for them.

    • I dont think “IMP will be there if needed, if NZ First may start causing troubles”. IMP would be livid if Labour prefers NZ First, which has a history of unreliability and has no policies to speak of.
      If they are preferred by Labour that will only confirm my views that Labour will always try to undermine its coalition partners. The best tactic for any truly left wing voter is party vote IMP rather than Labour. Then it will have no choice but to negotiate.

      • True to a point….but tactically….it all depends on the particular electorate in question…as for the future…I think you will find IMP, even after they go their separate ways…will always now be a growing force- and natural allies.

  6. So – THREE political polls this week all using similar methodology, similar sample size and all claim an error margin of about +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. The Stuff (Ipsos) poll puts Nats at 55% and Labour at 22.5%; TV 3 (Reid Research) puts Nats at 47.5% and Labour at 29%; TV One (Colmar-Brunton) put Nats at 50% and Labour at 26%. Well they can’t all be right and claim only a 3.1% margin of error – but they could be all wrong! Personally, I think the folk over at Stuff/Ipsos are smoking crack!

  7. It dosnt help in the Waikato region when the main newsprint publication seems to have a blanket ban on reporting any article pertaining to the Hagar Dirty Politics revelations.

    • Kia ora Ian – I didn’t post your last post because it was just too much hate speech in one post – lose the violence and you can repost it

  8. Hehehe…..and don’t forget IMP….now an integral part of the future Left bloc.

    Part of ridding this all – pervasive entrenched neo liberalism , is presenting an allied front to this loss of national sovereignty by stealth , – do that , – and many of the issues that have plagued this country for 30 long years will have a chance to slowly heal. 🙂

    • Mmm, regarding IMP; am not sure I can vote for someone who refers to me as a ‘. . . motherf…er . . .’. Hone can get pretty racist.

      • Well..one cant say the guys not colourful , can one?. No mealy -mouthed plastic clone is Mr Hawera .

        Also…the proof that the collective cooperation between people of all races of IMP is evidence enough that we can lay that one to rest.

        They are a party whose peoples diverse past experiences drew them together under a very real set of common issues, who have gone well past that to create a viable political machine with workable policies.

        It would behoove all to not discount their impact and tactical role come this election …hence all the animosity displayed by FJK , Slater , the ABC ‘s etc….against KDC , Mana , and Internet party.

  9. I know what you mean about people on the left attacking people on the left Martyn. I’m a Green voter who’s been really inspired by Kim Dotcom. His environmental credetials are appalling, but his wake up to our (global) democratic deficit has been wonderful to follow. John Key thought he was fire-walled behind Hollywood. I say to John Key, “If you’re going to piss someone off you’d be well advised not to make it a millionaire genius.” If anyone doubts my use of ‘genius’ take a look at
    Carole Cadwalladr’s article in the Guardian. The facts themselves indicate an almost clairvoyant insight into tech’ evolution. If anyone can get youth engaged with politics – this man can.

  10. Winston will pull a lot of disenfranchised National voters so may well be a fairly big force in the next parliament however I also get the feeling the IMP has stirred a whole lot of apathy out of the eighteen to twenties and that can only be a good thing for the left. The worry is as I think Martin pointed out in an earlier post managing the incumbent civil servants and also creating a solid and sustainable coalition. It’s so like Borgen I’m beginning to expect Laila to speck Danish.

  11. “Labour need to hit 32% Greens 14% and Internet MANA 5% and we will have the most progressive Government in NZs political history.” I hope so, although Labour’s performance to date hasn’t impressed me.

  12. If you want to see how Key will loose watch his TV show tomorrow on History channel.

    The look alike show called “Tricky Dickie Nixon”

    The Watergate years, on History channel Tuesday evening after 8pm.

    Our own Slatergate looks a hell of a lot like Watergate.

    I watched it when working in Canada in 1972 and it started just the same way.

    But Richard Nixon didn’t have ten storm troopers & bullies surrounding him as we have this clown, as he today had at his standing press interview.

    Scary man now that one.

    • Relax….no matter what happens this election…the longer FJK hangs around the political scene now in this country …the more damage he does to the neo liberal cause.

      They know it , we know it, and going by the ruthlessness of the neo liberal agenda…he will be removed… back to obscurity to Hawaii..

      FJK was a man selected to further that cause… he is now a liability to it. Furthermore…the man is a sore looser..stating once -‘ I wont run for election if National looses this time ‘. Great sense of commitment , that one …

      Collins is seen for the mean spirited individual she really is , and will gain no traction at all – if not forced to resign at some stage.

      Joyce? ….is nothing at all when he doesn’t have the legitimizing effect of the undercover dirt manufacturing process they’ve had up until now. And that puerile giggle would be embarrassing for the country anyways…

      Brownlee?…well, no one likes him anyways. Who’s left?….a few assorted hollow men and women here and there..but really..nothing much to write home about at all..

      The neo liberals worst nightmare has come to pass…they never reckoned…’ if you live by the sword ,…you will die by the sword ‘.

  13. John Key is running very scared at the moment, he is sensing the whole charade collapsing around his ears. Listen to his latest desperate performances. It reminded me of that final scene from the horror film The Fly (the original one) where the fly in the web pleads “Help Meeee, Help Meeeeee!” John Key sounds more like Richard Nixon every day, “I’m not a crook!”

  14. It amuses me that the left is jumping up and down with excitement that National are having a drop in the polls. A drop from 53% to 47.5% in one poll doesn’t mean shit when the opposition has only managed to climb to 29% support.
    If National were 29% and Labour were 47.5% – then that would be something worth talking about.

    What they are currently saying is that, “We are losing, but we’re losing by a few less points than we were last week!” There is no award for second place in an election.

    Labour deserves to be junked. They have nothing. The Greens should be the primary opposition party. They have matured their policies are expanding and they are producing some interesting ideas. That they think it can all be paid for by crippling taxes on the highest income earners is cute and means that they will never be in power on their own – but Labour needs to be dismissed with the same disdain as the Conservatives, ACT and United Fuckwits.

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